MD 0433 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 98... FOR CENTRAL...SOUTHERN...AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS Mesoscale Discussion 0433 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019 Areas affected...central...southern...and southeastern Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 98... Valid 241931Z - 242100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 98 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 98. Areas south of WW 98 may experience convective development later, with hail and gusty winds possible. DISCUSSION...The severe threat continues across WW 98. Most of the ongoing convection continues along and north of an outflow boundary located from roughly 50 W COT to near/northwest of NIR to just south of CLL. This boundary separates surface-based convection from more elevated convection atop a relatively stable low-level airmass. Nevertheless, a linear, mostly sub-severe complex has begun to forward-propagate across northern and central portions of WW 98, and should impact the Austin/San Antonio Metro areas around 21Z or so. These storms will need to reach a more buoyant airmass located east of the aforementioned outflow to have a more extensive severe threat - though surface obs indicate that outflow has started to retreat northward near Fayette and Gonzales Counties. It is not out of the question for the southern flank of the ongoing elevated MCS to begin ingesting more surface-based parcels over the next 2-3 hours. Farther south, mid-level capping has held strong and limited deep convective development. High-resolution models/CAMS indicate that at least isolated convective development will develop (most likely along a southeastward-moving composite outflow/cold front that moved through DRT over the past hour). Should these storms materialize, the threat for hail and damaging wind gusts may necessitate a WW issuance. ..Cook/Thompson.. 04/24/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 31269871 31439819 31309691 31019632 30509607 29789609 28989658 28559698 27999799 27579908 27769965 28709984 29369978 30139949 30629921 31269871 Read more View the full article

Here's a look at the 3 months with the most tornadoes. You can see that our numbers start to go down for May. https://www.ustornadoes.com/2016/04/06/annual-and-monthly-tornado-averages-across-the-united-states/

MD 0432 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS Mesoscale Discussion 0432 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019 Areas affected...central into southeastern Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 241511Z - 241715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A WW issuance may be needed in portions of the discussion area - most likely from 16Z onward. DISCUSSION...Mostly sub-severe convection continues currently amidst a complicated surface pattern, with a remnant outflow extending from near CLL to 40 S SAT to near DRT. Surface-based convection persists near the outflow, with one dominant cell over western Gonzales county exhibiting signs of mid-level rotation. Though low-level wind fields remain weak, any favorable interaction between updrafts associated with this convection along the remnant outflow may result in a brief tornado. Over time, strengthening low-level wind fields associated with low-level cyclogenesis and approach of a mid-level wave centered over northern Mexico will probably result in 1) stalling and/or slow northward retreat of the outflow and 2) gradually increased organization of convection. Any storms near/south of this outflow will be surface-based owing to near 70F dewpoints, while steepening mid-level lapse rates will increase buoyancy and result in an increased threat for all modes of severe. North of the boundary, a gradually organizing linear complex near SJT and other scattered convection near HDO/SAT/AUS may pose a threat for marginally severe hail and perhaps an isolated damaging wind gust. Convective trends continue to be monitored, and a WW issuance may be needed at some point after 16Z or so. ..Cook/Thompson.. 04/24/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 31460105 31520008 31419820 31049668 30489576 29839546 28879575 28309648 27949798 27949940 28350026 29170094 29720142 30350162 31040137 31190130 31460105 Read more View the full article

Flood Warning issued April 24 at 10:52AM EDT until April 25 at 12:40PM EDT by NWS View the full article

Pollen count back up slightly after a couple of days of no readings. Of course they could have been at this level for the last two days, not out of the question.