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Friday, October 19 Weather Talk



A daily summary of social media discussions about the weather.

This is what the Grand Canyon look like when it's lit only by lightning. pic.twitter.com/vZMaWS3A0e

— Nature art□ (@itsnatureart) October 7, 2018

We have been forecasting a Modoki Enso event since last spring using our research on SOI drops in the previous winter, Combined with a cool eastern Indian Ocean and a very warm NE Pacific, our long standing ideas, first issued in August call for a cold stormy winter.JAMSTEC below pic.twitter.com/ikAJaeas49

— Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) October 19, 2018

when one looks at Global temps since super nino of 97-98, obvious reactions back and forth but level is higher than before that super nino over a 2 decade period, Higher pause starting now, but the big but is with flip of AMO and solar, going OPPOSITE of what went on before pic.twitter.com/DTExiqb6R3

— Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) October 19, 2018

Some hint of a potential storm near the E. Coast next weekend or early the following week in ensembles. They've teased us by pushing this off farther in the future with each model run this week, so we'll see. Potentially more blocking (NAO shift) would support it. pic.twitter.com/eU8XRR1DBc

— Jonathan Erdman (@wxjerdman) October 19, 2018

1st snow chances of the season in the Mountains Saturday night into Sunday morning. Northwest flow areas favored for a dusting to 1" in the highest elevations possible. #snOMG #wncwx #ncwx #skise pic.twitter.com/Rp0U7H6yKA

— Brad Panovich (@wxbrad) October 19, 2018

Stunning sunrise over 1-2” of new snow at Loveland Pass, CO heading toward @Arapahoe_Basin for opening day! Incredible start to the CO ski season with over 2 feet of snow up here. Live for @accuweather this morning from the first lift #skiseason #openingday #cowx pic.twitter.com/lLrzROChUL

— Reed Timmer (@ReedTimmerAccu) October 19, 2018

With the latest NOAA Winter Outlook just released, here's how their previous 3 winter precipitation outlooks have "verified". At least here on the West Coast they have pretty much missed the mark. pic.twitter.com/qKqdB53YGc

— Jan Null (@ggweather) October 19, 2018

Need to watch the period from next weekend through 11/3 or so for potentially multiple storms systems to affect the SE/Eastern US. Possible a tropical wave in the Gulf gets entrained too. Way too complicated to pin down details, but 1 or more noreasters/coastal lows possible.

— Allan Huffman (@RaleighWx) October 19, 2018

First Chair 2018 https://t.co/PhmukceJ5V

— Arapahoe Basin (@Arapahoe_Basin) October 19, 2018

Been watching this pattern for a while -- tropical-infused winter storm potential for late October in eastern NA. Still a lot of uncertainty, but absolutely an interesting pattern to monitor.

Full story: https://t.co/jJgvRTAmwx pic.twitter.com/u1fhZmUHF3

— Erin Wenckstern (@erinwenckstern) October 19, 2018

The average temperature so far this month at Caribou of 44.0°F is 1.6°F below average. It makes it the coolest start to October (Oct. 1-18) since 2009. #mewx https://t.co/R0yEiTAYZ7 pic.twitter.com/kPD8H5Jw2D

— NWS Caribou (@NWSCaribou) October 19, 2018

Hey #NYC, Sunday's forecast high of 47F is more like what you would see in early December. Where is that air coming from? Here's the GFS 5-day back-trajectory for 100m/1500m/3000m for Sunday morning. pic.twitter.com/XSQZvxiD2h

— Tom Niziol (@TomNiziol) October 19, 2018

Today, the view at approximately 6,000 feet above sea level shows some early color change. Fall colors have arrived somewhat later than average this year, likely related to the recent warm temperatures and large amounts of rainfall we have received. pic.twitter.com/NKSDT5DeoJ

— GreatSmokyNPS (@GreatSmokyNPS) October 19, 2018
First people down the mountain on opening day. :-)
View from Mt. Washington New Hampshire

My @mwobs office view this afternoon looking out at the fresh snowfall. #nh #NHwx #whitemountains #mountain pic.twitter.com/F9ySpRnbQL

— Ryan Knapp (@WXKnapper) October 19, 2018

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  • Posts

    • Gfs is hinting at a tropical system out of the Caribbean.  Pretty nasty at that. It has kept introducing it off and on.  With the big cool down and the movements of overall circulation what are you thoughts here?
    • Good morning!       And speaking of the closed off bowling ball, here's what that 500 mb anomaly looks like. THIS is what we want to see this winter. Big closed upper air lows can make their own cold air in the winter by drawing down much colder air from the upper reaches of the atmosphere.    These are the corresponding surface temperature anomalies... we're going to be well below normal for the first week of October.    Do you remember what last October was like? We were broiling in the mid to upper 80's with extremely dry conditions.   Don't want to ever see that again, that totally ruined fall.  Take a look at the Euro's thoughts on low temps for next Sunday morning.   Here are two images, one from the GFS and one from the Euro, showing a cross section of the temperatures from the surface to about 200 mb which is getting close to 40,000 feet. You can see the dips in the temperatures next week. The temps are in Celsius so the zero degree line is 32 degrees.   While we expect some rain between now and next weekend, it won't be a a lot. There is a decent chance of rain in advance of the bowling ball but nothing significant at the moment. This is the expected rainfall through Thursday morning.   So we'll warm up a little before we cool down, so just a little patience! 🙂 Hope everyone has a great Saturday!
    • Good morning! Man... it just seems like this month is flying by to me. Here we are coming up on the middle of fall and the 2nd busiest month for hurricanes, so that means there ought to be lots of weather to talk about, but right now we're in a lull.  This mornings map (300 mb winds and isobars/dewpoints/water vapor/radar) shows a mostly zonal flow across the northern tier of the US. You can see the weak cold front trailing down though TN/AR/TX. You can also see how the southeast is still in the moisture while the northern and western parts of the US are dry.      Here's a look at the upcoming temperatures for selected areas around north Georgia. These are the official NWS forecast temps. Notice the end of the week.   The rain is about over but there could be a light shower/drizzle passing through, these are the rainfall expectations through 8 pm this evening.   So not much going on to get excited about. After having 5-7 storms in the Atlantic at once, we now have zero.    Yesterday's CoCoRaHS rainfall measurements look like this. I feel very alone up here.... 🙂   That's it! 🙂 I hop everyone has a great Friday!
    • Sorry, missed your question. I guess you've already gotten the answer. 🙂  
    • Any update on expected wind gusts or are we still just looking at breezy conditions if anything?
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