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2019 Tire Rack Lincoln Spring Nationals Champ Tour Weather - Saturday

NorthGeorgiaWX

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Good Saturday morning to everyone! Decided to use the new blog site instead of the old one, so it may look a little different here today!

But first, a reminder that I have a page that is devoted to the weather at Lincoln, so anytime you like to see what's going on there, use this link to check it out. 
http://www.daculaweather.com/4_track_lincoln.php

The bullseye for the severe weather keeps shifting around and luckily, Lincoln isn't in the worst of it. But even if it's not the worst, it's still the plains, and any big storm there can create significant issues. For the latest thoughts from the Omaha NWS office, here's a portion of their AFD, the highlights are mine.
http://www.daculaweather.com/4_afd_all.php

Quote

Continued southwesterly flow aloft will keep us in a fairly active
pattern over the next several days.
 The primary concern at the
moment is the potential for severe weather across southeast Nebraska
and southwest Iowa Saturday afternoon and evening, as well as the
potential for additional heavy rainfall across already saturated
ground
. An upper low will continue to lift northeast through
southeastern Canada, as its associated surface low is pulled from
northern Minnesota to just northeast of the Great Lakes. High
pressure will fill in across the Dakotas and into northern
Nebraska and Iowa behind the departing surface low, keeping much
of the forecast area dry today. A cold front associated with the
Canadian low will become draped over far southeast Nebraska and
southwest Iowa as it links with a developing low over the CO/NM
border region. CAMS are in fairly good agreement in developing
showery precipitation along and south of the boundary late this
morning and into the early afternoon. A better chance for stronger
storms will occur across far southeast Nebraska and far southern
Iowa through the afternoon and evening hours.
Dewpoints will climb
into the upper 60's, possibly low 70's, with moderate instability
and up to 40-50 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear possible. While previous
convection will play a role in how far south the front sets up, if
stronger storms are able to sneak into southern portions of the
CWA, a few could be severe with the potential for large hail,
damaging winds and perhaps an isolated tornado. Heavy rain will
also be possible with any thunderstorms that do develop
. PWATs
will rise to 1.50-1.70, which is still near the climatological max
for May 25th. Any heavy rain that does occur would fall on
already saturated soils, leading to the potential for Flash
Flooding. Therefore, a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for this
afternoon through early Sunday morning.

Convection will likely continue through the overnight hours across
southeastern portions of the CWA before diminishing in coverage
Sunday morning. A shortwave will move into the region Sunday
afternoon, igniting convection across south central Nebraska and
western KS. This activity could eventually make its way northeast
into the forecast area during the evening and overnight hours,
bringing another chance for heavy rain, large hail and damaging
winds to the region.

Continued southwesterly flow will maintain an active pattern into
Monday with another Slight Risk for severe weather across the
northern 2/3 of the CWA.

 

Here's the latest Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center for today

SPC Day 1 Outlook - http://www.daculaweather.com/4_spc_day1_outlook.php | http://www.daculaweather.com/4_spc_graphical.php

NE_swody1-25.png.b437333122caaaf0ef99a6025a43c5fb.png

 

There is a frontal boundary running across Lincoln right now, separating the cooler, drier air to the north (upper 40's to mid 50's) from the warm moist air to the south (mid 60's right now), but there could be some light showers moving through the flow. So of course, being Lincoln... you get a little of both. 🙂 

 

Temps and Dew Points - You can see that Lincoln is pretty much on the line, maybe a little on the warmer side right now.
http://www.daculaweather.com/4_spc_meso_analysis_14.php

Snap57.thumb.jpg.ca74b3d0b8dabec2a716329407580ddf.jpg

 

Radar view from the Omaha NWS office - The dark line that you see passing through Lincoln represents the pressure, and the line just south of Lincoln represents 0.8" precipitable water values. The NWS is expecting those to rise to 1.5"-1.7" later today, indicating that the stationary boundary will shift northward.

20190525_1018_koax_BR_0.5.thumb.png.99422ff73025a9e6ff8c5ede33b71d2b.png

 

Again, it will probably be a good idea to try to keep everything secure up front, so in case bad weather rolls in you don't have to scramble to gather everything up. It will all depend on where that boundary shifts, further north the greater chance for rain, further south will mean cooler and drier. 

Lincoln Forecast - http://www.daculaweather.com/4_track_lincoln.php

Snap56-25.thumb.jpg.e72f18affb73bc11d1b6f71078c4dc6a.jpg

 

I'll be watching it for you today, hope everyone goes fast with no cones! 🙂 And hey... at least it isn't 100 degrees! 



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