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    • Joe Bastardi tweeting about MJO stalling in a phase and said it has never happened before in October.   Can you explain the gist of what he is saying and what “could” be the difference, or has been the difference in our weather?
    • Good morning! Looks like we're waking up to cloudy skies this morning, and that will mark the beginning of a slight change in the pattern for us. On the morning map (850/700/300 mb isobars/850 mb winds/water vapor/temps) you can see high pressure ridging down the east side of the Appalachian's and even weakly extending all the way to MS/AR/LA.      The next 7 days will only bring light amounts of rainfall if you get any at all, since there is no real mechanism to produce any rain. However....   ...there are discrepancies between the GFS and Euro through next Wednesday morning, so don't put away the umbrella just yet.  We're not seeing any real cold air intrusions through the end of the month, but both the GFS and Euro, including both of their ensembles, are seeing some cooler air close to the last day of the month. Since that is about 10 days away, it is a little too far off to have any confidence despite the agreements.  Tomorrow we'll look at our rain chances for the weekend to see if anything has changed. That's pretty much it. With no weather to speak of, I'll go tend to the "Honey Do" list. 🙂 Hope everyone has a GREAT Wednesday!
    • Good Tuesday morning! The morning map (MSLP,850,700 mb isobars/temps/water vapor) shows high pressure nosing into our area from the east at the low to mid levels, and that means our moisture levels will be on the increase as we move toward the end of the week.    Notice how we have patterns of warm and dry and then cool and wet?  If you look down on the northern hemisphere you will see areas of lower pressures that rotate around the hemisphere in a counter-clockwise rotation. Those are called planetary wave patterns and those waves are Rossby Waves.    I'll cut and paste from the NWS Jetstream educational page to help explain it further.   Often over the winter those patterns become better defined, and if blocking is present, we can get locked into a warm or cold pattern depending on where those "spokes" setup. Right now we will be moving into a period where those longwaves will be moving back over us, and that's when we see the cooler and generally more moist air return. So our weather is going to look pretty much like what you see here. Small chances for some showers will return beginning Thursday and those chances increase slightly for the weekend. Nothing major but maybe just enough to mess with your outdoor plans. You can see that the increase in cloud cover and moisture helps to drop the high temperatures back down a little but also works to keep the nighttime temperatures elevated above normal.     More tranquil weather so I'll keep it short today. Hope everyone has a great Tuesday!
    • Good morning! What a beautiful day yesterday! And today. And tomorrow. And the next day. And the next day. Are you sensing a pattern here? 🙂 You know the weather is slow, when I click on my Tweetdeck tab in Chrome and find the same tweets that I saw when I went to bed. SLOW.  This is the way the weather looks around the US today (300 mb isobars/temps/water vapor). A very large and deep trough resides over the north central part of the country right now and that is evident by the tightly packed isobars and cold temperatures. We want to see one of these dip its way south this winter. Or ten of them. 🙂 I moved to the mountains to see some snow and it's gonna happen. 😁 I've already place my ❄️ order. ⛄     Beginning today, we will have a warming trend that should last into next week, and these are what those temperature anomalies will look like.   Looks like we're burning up doesn't it. 🙂 We won't be terribly warm with highs mostly in the 70's for much of north Georgia. Once we get to next Tuesday, it looks as though we will fall back down to more fall like temperatures. The GFS is showing an impressive cold front pushing into the state around that time period, and these are what those temperature anomalies might look like.   Those temperatures may bring north Georgia the first freeze of the season, and right on time for most folks. While this is not a forecast, it gives you an idea what the temperatures may be like on the morning of Thursday the 29th.   This show the normal first freeze dates for Georgia.   We're not going to look too far ahead right now because the models are not being very helpful. What you see above may or may not happen like you see it. Mother Nature's timing is always on time. 🙂 Mother Nature's time.  So that's pretty much it, nothing to talk about, no snow to drool over. Speaking of snow, this is the GFS snow forecast through the end of the month. Looks like I didn't move far enough north. 🙂 I'll try to be patient...   I hope you get a chance to get out and enjoy the day today! Have a great Monday!
    • Watch this roll cloud over Lake Michigan roll cloud.mp4
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