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    • Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued August 31 at 7:54PM EDT until July 31 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS View the full article
    • MD 1786 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 596... FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI Mesoscale Discussion 1786 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0609 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Areas affected...northeast Oklahoma...far northwest Arkansas...and southwest Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 596... Valid 181109Z - 181215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 596 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity continues to diminish this morning across the region. Severe Thunderstorm Watch #596 may need to be canceled early. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity continues to wane across the area this morning. Radar presentation continues to show a decrease in reflectivity and infrared satellite imagery indicates warming cloud tops. Thus, the near-term severe risk appears to have decreased substantially. Although reintensification may occur as diurnal heating commences, confidence in this is low given just how far south the outflow boundary pushed in Oklahoma and the decrease in deep-layer shear across southwest Missouri and northwest Arkansas. Thus, severe thunderstorm watch #596 may be canceled early. ..Marsh.. 08/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT... LAT...LON 36079544 36989539 37009510 37349505 37349465 37629456 37619409 38229399 38199350 38099351 38079312 38249302 38189264 38009238 37769243 37649225 37469228 37479264 37079269 37059289 36829290 36789334 36119333 36129348 35769354 35759451 35639449 35629514 35819513 35829529 36099523 36079544 Read more View the full article
    • MD 1785 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...NORTHERN INDIANA...AND SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN Mesoscale Discussion 1785 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0544 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Areas affected...northern Illinois...southern Wisconsin...southern Lake Michigan...northern Indiana...and southwest Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 181044Z - 181215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Organized cluster of thunderstorms continue east this morning across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. A gradual increase in thunderstorm intensity through the morning should result in the need for a severe thunderstorm watch at some point this morning. DISCUSSION...Well-organized cluster of thunderstorms is moving east across southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois this morning. This activity is located to the southeast of a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) located to the east of Minneapolis. Despite recent measured winds being below severe criteria, this cluster of storms is moving into an increasingly favorable thermodynamic environment, where most-unstable CAPE values are around 2500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear is being augmented by the circulation associated with the MCV and is between 35-45 knots. Further destabilization of the atmosphere is expected with the onset of diurnal heating, which should act to remove convective inhibition by mid morning. Thus, a gradual increase in thunderstorm intensity is expected through the morning, with an attendant increase in the threat for damaging thunderstorm winds and hail. Additionally, more isolated thunderstorms are developing farther east along the northern edge of the better low-level moisture. As the airmass further destabilizes, the severe potential of these thunderstorms should also increase. Therefore, the region will be monitored for a severe thunderstorm watch, which appears likely sometime this morning. ..Marsh/Edwards.. 08/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... LAT...LON 43539011 42728538 40658564 41089110 43539011 Read more View the full article
    • Air Quality Alert issued August 18 at 4:25AM EDT by NWS View the full article
    • MD 1784 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHWEST MISSOURI...AND SOUTHERN IOWA Mesoscale Discussion 1784 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Areas affected...far northeast Kansas...northwest Missouri...and southern Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 180745Z - 180945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms have developed across northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri this morning. These thunderstorms will be capable of hail and gusty winds. A watch is not currently expected, but conditions will be monitored. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed this morning across northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri, likely in response to ascent stemming from the ageostrophic mass response to the thunderstorms across central Kansas. This is suggested by broad region of surface pressure falls the last few hours. The airmass here is moderately to very unstable with most-unstable CAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for promoting thunderstorm updraft/downdraft organization, thus a severe hail or wind threat cannot be ruled out this morning. One negative for a more widespread severe event will be the expanding precipitation shield from the mesoscale convective system to the southwest. This may act to limit the overall instability available locally to thunderstorm updrafts, resulting in a more isolated/episodic severe potential, rather than a sustained one. Given the uncertainty, the need for a watch is unclear. Presently a watch is currently not expected, but conditions will continue to be maintained. ..Marsh/Edwards.. 08/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...TOP... LAT...LON 38569543 39699548 41669395 41159148 38589398 38569543 Read more View the full article
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