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    • MD 1086 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN OK...PARTS OF NORTH TX Mesoscale Discussion 1086 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019 Areas affected...eastern OK...parts of north TX Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 160427Z - 160530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A new severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed within the hour for parts of eastern OK into portions of north TX. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a squall line across central OK arcing southwestward into western north-central TX. Recent OK Mesonet data have shown a decrease in the pervasiveness of measured severe gusts as the squall line has moved east during the past 1-2 hours. Nonetheless, the organized character of the squall line in an environment characterized with steep 700-500mb lapse rates, will likely continue to pose some risk for wind damage into eastern OK and north TX. ..Smith/Guyer.. 06/16/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 36369663 36119531 34779525 33389627 32539809 32549909 33339869 34059705 35359654 36369663 Read more View the full article
    • No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jun 16 03:46:04 UTC 2019. View the full article
    • MD 1085 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 362... FOR NORTHERN MISSOURI...EASTERN KANSAS...AND WESTERN ILLINOIS Mesoscale Discussion 1085 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0948 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019 Areas affected...Northern Missouri...eastern Kansas...and western Illinois Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 362... Valid 160248Z - 160345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 362 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues for WW 362. Additional watches are being considered. DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a line of storms has developed a weak cold front extending from portions of western Illinois into northern Missouri and far eastern Kansas. In addition, a fairly well developed MCV is now associated with the northern end of this activity, now tracking into northern Illinois, and storms here are beginning to bow out. A few reports of large hail (1-1.5 inches in diameter) and strong wind gusts (60 mph) have occurred this evening. Given the ample supply of low-level moisture (high 60s to low 70s F dew point temperatures), instability (1500-3000+ J/kg MLCAPE), and deep-layer shear (40-45 kt effective bulk shear), the ongoing storms should continue to pose a severe threat, particularly across portions of north-central Illinois where a damaging wind threat may be emerging and thus, a new watch may be needed. Additional storms may develop farther west along the front extending into southeast Kansas, and thus may require an additional watch here. ..Karstens.. 06/16/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 38299685 39279505 40149239 40949086 41759052 42008948 40838872 38879137 37759459 37199614 37469708 38299685 Read more View the full article
    • MD 1084 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 364... FOR NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL OK Mesoscale Discussion 1084 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0944 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019 Areas affected...northwest and north-central OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 364... Valid 160244Z - 160345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 364 continues. SUMMARY...Significant severe gusts may focus in a corridor as a supercell becomes embedded in the squall line over parts of northwest and north-central OK during the next 1-2 hours. Severe gusts 65-80mph are possible. DISCUSSION...A large-scale bow over western OK into the northeast TX Panhandle will continue moving to the east-northeast around 35kt and absorb a supercell over northwest OK. The inflow airmass over west-central and north-central OK features surface dewpoints in the 72-74 degrees F range. Given the extreme buoyancy sampled by the 00z Norman, OK raob (4200 J/kg MLCAPE) featuring an 8 degrees C/km 700-500mb lapse rate, the expectation is for wind gust potential to locally maximize with the portion of the squall line with the embedded supercell. ..Smith.. 06/16/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN... LAT...LON 35929899 36299813 36219779 35949782 35599888 35929899 Read more View the full article
    • MD 1083 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 363... FOR WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OH...FAR SOUTHEAST IN...FAR NORTHERN KY Mesoscale Discussion 1083 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0912 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019 Areas affected...west-central and southwest OH...far southeast IN...far northern KY Concerning...Tornado Watch 363... Valid 160212Z - 160315Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 363 continues. SUMMARY...Storms intermittently possessing supercell structure may continue to yield a risk for isolated damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado east of the tornado watch. A watch extension-in-area may be needed but dependent on convective trends. DISCUSSION...Surface observations along the I-75 corridor from Dayton to Cincinnati show temperatures near 70 degrees F with dewpoints in the 66-68 F range. KILN VAD shows an enlarged low-level hodograph with 0-1km SRH around 350 m^2/s^2 when accounting for observed storm motion. A tornadic debris signature was evident from KILN around 0150z in Wayne County, IN. Given the moist/marginally unstable airmass (250 J/kg MLCAPE per the 00z Wilmington, OH raob), a continuation of the severe storm risk may extend beyond the current eastern edge of tornado watch 363 and a local extension-in-area can be utilized if convective trends warrant. ..Smith.. 06/16/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN... LAT...LON 40338442 40248405 39168402 38878409 38958493 39138534 40338442 Read more View the full article
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