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  2. Yeah I’m not sure what to make about the whole Glenn burns thing..... normally he’s not like this. 😳
  3. After the disaster that was last winter, just one area wide snow sure would do us a lot of good. So tweets like this one, from experts in the field, definitely make me look forward to the winter. Even Glen Burns, whose normally a bit of a sour pus when it comes to winter weather, has said he expects this to be a very snowy winter. After getting burned by big predictions last year I'm scared to go all in, but man the consensus among the experts seems to be set.
  4. Hey Christine! I am doing great, how about you? How's school going? Yes, it appears that this may be an above average snow year for us, at least the way things are looking now. We may have a little warm up going into December, but nothing too bad.
  5. If you had to guess.. do you think we have a good chance for snow this year?!:) Hope you’re doing well!!
  6. Made it down to 16 in Sky Valley last night!
  7. Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 146 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2019 Valid 12Z Sat Nov 16 2019 - 12Z Wed Nov 20 2019 Pattern Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment: Upper pattern will transition toward western troughing and eastern quasi-zonal flow in about a week, after a two successive systems lift northeastward along the East Coast. In the West, upper ridging will weaken as it slides eastward atop a closed upper low moving away from Baja California. This will pave the way for a Pacific shortwave to dig through interior California as downstream heights rise in response. Off the Southeast coast, the models have come into better agreement with mostly some timing differences as it looms offshore. Model blend sufficed given recent shifts in the ECMWF/GFS. 12Z UKMET/Canadian were close enough to the ensemble range as well. Upstream system will act to kick the lead shortwave along, but reinforce the surface boundary along the Gulf Stream. This may develop another low and off the NC coast which should move quicker out to sea as heights rebound. In the West, lead front into Washington will weaken in favor of a stronger shortwave on its heels. The ECMWF has been most aggressive with this feature and dug it farther southwest than the other guidance. GFS has been more in line with the ensembles but given how much upstream ridging is forecast to build into the Gulf of Alaska, the ECMWF solution cannot be ruled out completely. This would carry a cold front through the Great Basin into the Four Corners region by next Wednesday. Weather Highlights/Threats: Below average temperatures in the East will slowly moderate back toward more typical mid-November values by early next week. Much of the West will have temperatures above normal by 5-15 degrees through this weekend, cooling early next week with the arrival of the next upper trough. The system off the Southeast/mid-Atlantic coast should keep the heaviest rains offshore but should be close enough to produce at least showers along the I-95 corridor. Heavier rain is possible right along the coast of North Carolina. The strong pressure gradient between the low sfc high over New England will lead to windy conditions along the coast. The precipitation shield will move northward into New England early next week where temperatures may be cold enough for some snow in higher elevations. Several systems out of the Pacific will maintain a rather wet period for at least coastal Washington/Oregon and the Cascades, with less rain/snow along and just west of the Continental Divide. With increased troughing toward the Southwest next week, some light precipitation will be possible late Tue into Wed. Fracasso Links WPC Excessive Rain Discussion WPC Short Range Discussion WPC Extended Range Discussion WPC Model Diagnostic Discussion WPC 500 MB Preferred Heights WPC 500 MB Height Trends WPC 7 Day Max Temp - Anomaly WPC 7 Day Min Temp - Anomaly WPC Significant Lows with Tracks WPC SLP Trends
  8. Good morning! Are you a little cold this morning? 😉 Temps are in the teens across the mountains this morning with the rest of the area not too far behind. And cold it is, not just here, but all across the eastern US. 136 sites will hit or be close to a record low this morning. These are the low temperature anomalies for this morning. And these will be the low temperature anomalies for Thursday. You always hear me talking about the precipitable water values, but usually they are high when I bring them up because of increased chances for rain. But in this case... it's the opposite, the air is extremely dry. These are forecast values, I believe they are lower than this right now. This shows the percentage above/or below normal. Looks like we are running about 10-20% of what is normal for today. There will be a good chance for rain Friday with another 1-2" across the area. So enjoy this early winter! It sure beats 90's in my book! 🙂
  9. Last week
  10. NW flow can create downslope winds which warm also. You see that often. It was easy to see on the visible satellite images today, there was a sunny area surrounded by clouds.
  11. The smokies are a real buzz kill when it comes to cold fronts up here. It takes so long for that cold to get past them from the NW. It's 32 in Blairsville and 45 here lol
  12. Pretty much. Looks dry, maybe light rain at best.
  13. Late week system non-existent for wintry hopes this weekend?
  14. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 433 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2019 .SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/... Brief Wintry Mix Possible in Far North Georgia This Morning Satellite analysis this morning indicates a very impressive troughing pattern from the eastern Great Lakes down the western Appalachian then over into central Texas. Along it, radar shows a band of precip, mostly consisting of rain with reports of some sleet and snow on the rear of the line as an Arctic cold front has quickly plunged into the northwestern forecast area, which will bring unseasonably cold temperatures along with it. Behind the front, an extremely large area of subsidence shows the extent of the Arctic high pressure behind the frontal system. The center of the high currently sits in the central plains with a central pressure around 1043hPa. Throughout the morning, the cold front will continue quickly pushing southeast with the entire forecast area expected to be behind the front by noon today. Behind the front, strong gradient winds will prevail with sustained winds up to 20 mph and gusts between 25-35 mph possible. A Wind Advisory has been issued through 7 PM. As the line of precip moves through the area, most of us will see a little over a half inch of rain in total with temperatures varying widely across the forecast area as the cold air move into the region. In the far northern portions of the forecast area, a race between subfreezing air moving into the area and drier air behind the front eroding away the precip will determine if and how much wintry precip could occur. Model guidance has been very consistent with this system for several days and have been pushing towards a transition from rain to a mix of snow and sleet, to a chance for an hours-worth of light snow before the precip dries up in the cold, dry airmass. Chances for any wintry precip will be primarily confined to the northernmost 2 rows of Georgia counties and will have the best chances in areas over 2000 feet in elevation. Roads in these higher elevations could become slick by early morning where temperatures fall below freezing for an extended period of time. Any accumulations of wintry precip are expected to be minor and not cause significant impacts at this time. For more details, please see the most recent Special Weather Statement. While temperatures this afternoon are expected to stall as cold air advection is countered by diurnal heating, tonight temperatures will plummet once the sun begins going down and the skies clear. These will be by far the coldest temperatures of the season with Columbus and Macon in danger of setting record low temperatures. Lows are forecast around 20 for far north Georgia and mid- to upper-20s are forecast along and southeast of the I-85 corridor. A Freeze Warning has been issued for the remainder of our forecast area where the Autumn Frost/Freeze program remains in effect. Tomorrow, the high pressure will be moving across the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic, and will dominate the weather pattern. Clear skies will allow high temps to climb back into the mid- to upper-40s, with light winds out of the east becoming breezy during the afternoon. Thiem
  15. Good morning! It's 4:02 AM so an early edition today! Current situation Back in a little while with more updates.
  16. And since I'm up, this front is incredibly sharp. East of Chattanooga its in the 50s. Just west and its in the 30s. That's some strong advection.
  17. This is the point I was attempting to make last week. That I already like where we're at this year compared to last year regardless of whether we end up with a super cold winter. For now, the storm track is loving the gulf and I like our chances of making one work out if that trend were to continue.
  18. Current temperature and 24 hour temperature change.
  19. SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/... ...Wintry Mix Possible Across Far Northern Tier Tonight... Hard to believe we will be talking about wintry wx possible later this evening based on the temperatures we have out there right now. Widespread upper 60s with even some lower 70s for central GA are commonplace. But a strong cold front continues to push into the Tennessee Valley at this hour with temperatures quickly dropping into the lower 30s in its immediate wake. Showers are developing well ahead of this and already pushing into Northern Alabama at this hour. Expect main axis of precipitation to move into the state by mid to late evening and then progress into the remainder of North GA into the first half of the overnight period. This initial period will be all rain for the area with any frozen precipitation occurring on the back edge of the precipitation shield. Temperatures will be plummeting behind the front which is concerning given the model temps below freezing. Ground temps however should remain above freezing through most of the precip limiting any travel issues. Hi res models are really hitting the freezing rain potential hard. However, this is not climatologically favored at all for this area, transitioning to freezing rain on the back side of a cold front. Will still need to be monitored but for this forecast will be favoring more of a sleet/snow mixture with the rain. Could see some "flash" aspects to this event once precip exits and residual water on roadways freezes with fast arriving sub freezing temps. Overall however, with limited accumulations mainly for the higher elevations and warm initial ground temps, will do an SPS in lieu of any advisories at this time. Will issue a wind advisory with this package starting tonight and going on through Tuesday for all but the far eastern tier counties. Wind chills look to remain just above criteria but will need to be monitored closely.
  20. Tomorrow looks downright awful... Not exactly ideal outdoor working conditions.
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