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  2. MD 1265 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 451... FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA Mesoscale Discussion 1265 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019 Areas affected...central and northeast South Dakota...far southern North Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 451... Valid 270715Z - 270915Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 451 continues. SUMMARY...A line of storms will continue to evolve as it travels northeast across WW 451, with a few damaging wind gusts and marginal hail expected. DISCUSSION...An initial line of storms over northwest SD has dissipated from the south, and merged with a band of storms associated with 850 mb warm/moist advection over central SD. Despite the loss of convection with the western line, severe outflow winds have spread well south of the area and through Rapid City. Over the last hour, the warm-advection storms (now extending from Corson county through Pierre and toward Chamberlain) have shown signs of marginal hail and wind. The air mass ahead of this line remains strongly unstable, and new outflow produced should aid a continued northeastward propagation. Further, strong outflow from the western SD activity is now merging with northern portions of the leading line over north central SD. It is possible that lift will then increase as the deeper outflow undercuts existing storms. Trends will continue to be monitored for any line enhancement, and possible downstream watch into the eastern Dakotas. ..Jewell.. 06/27/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 43679899 43989957 44419998 44960029 45400071 45710117 45920181 46370161 46800090 46830058 46619926 46339861 45889812 45239792 44609783 44259786 43949807 43679899 Read more View the full article
  3. Today
  4. MD 1264 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 450... FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA Mesoscale Discussion 1264 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0958 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019 Areas affected...Parts of western Nebraska and South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 450... Valid 270258Z - 270400Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 450 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms spreading across and northeast of the Badlands may continue to intensify late this evening, while another evolving cluster of storms poses an increasing risk for strong surface gusts and hail across into northwestern South Dakota by 10 PM-Midnight MDT. Trends are being monitored for a watch extension and/or new severe weather watch north and east of severe thunderstorm watch 450. DISCUSSION...Large-scale forcing for ascent associated with the mid-level short wave trough has been weak enough that thunderstorm increase and intensification has been slowed by mid-level inhibition associated with the very warm elevated mixed-layer air. Still, isolated stronger storms have been accompanied by severe hail, and severe gusts (52 kt) at Chadron, as well as near severe gusts (48 kt) at Alliance. A conglomerate surface cold pool generated by this convection appears to have developed, with 2-4 mb 2-hourly surface pressure rises noted at Chadron and Alliance in 27/02Z surface data. At least attempts at vigorous new convective development continue on the northern portion of the cold pool, now spreading into the Badlands of South Dakota. As this progresses northeastward, into a more weakly capped (as inferred from the 700 mb thermal gradient) boundary layer still characterized by large CAPE, there still appears potential for rapid intensification near/north of the Interstate 90 corridor. Additionally, strong to severe convection is in the process of growing upscale to the east of the Bighorns. This activity may continue to evolve into an increasingly organized mesoscale convective system, in the presence of at least moderately large CAPE and westerly deep-layer shear, while developing eastward along the lower/mid tropospheric baroclinic zone into northwestern South Dakota through 04-06z. As it does, thermodynamic profiles appear supportive of increasing potential for strong surface gusts, in addition to a continuing risk for severe hail. ..Kerr.. 06/27/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...BYZ... LAT...LON 45360467 45760385 45810217 45080110 44619978 43970036 43170145 42930195 43540230 43810304 44330286 44610492 45360467 Read more View the full article
  5. No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jun 27 02:01:02 UTC 2019. View the full article
  6. MD 1263 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 449... FOR MUCH OF MONTANA AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WYOMING Mesoscale Discussion 1263 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0703 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019 Areas affected...much of Montana and far north-central Wyoming Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449... Valid 270003Z - 270100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 449. DISCUSSION...Within the past hour, satellite/lightning imagery has indicated an overall increase in convective coverage across WW 449. The environment continues to support damaging wind gusts and large hail given weak to moderate instability (700-2500 J/kg MUCAPE) and strong deep shear (50 kts 0-6km shear). The boundary layer across this region is well mixed, with weak low-level wind fields (outside of thunderstorm cores) and cloud bases rooted around 3km. Thus, the expectation is that storms will be outflow dominant and perhaps grow upscale into linear segments - especially across southeastern Montana - which should continue to foster a wind/hail threat through the next few hours. Additional convection just south of the WW (across far northeastern Idaho and northern Wyoming) will also enter the WW area and pose a wind/hail threat. ..Cook.. 06/27/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...MSO... LAT...LON 47931317 48221254 48271130 48070940 47300648 46430510 45650486 44850503 44480623 44570750 44820872 44871053 44751141 45401209 46171282 46971335 47551343 47931317 Read more View the full article
  7. MD 1262 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 450... FOR EASTERN WYOMING...WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND WESTERN NEBRASKA Mesoscale Discussion 1262 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0701 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019 Areas affected...Eastern Wyoming...western South Dakota... and western Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 450... Valid 270001Z - 270200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 450 continues. SUMMARY...Rapid thunderstorm intensification and upscale growth appears possible through 7-9 PM MDT. Strongest storms pose a risk for large to very large hail, and perhaps some risk for a tornado, before the risk for damaging wind gusts becomes more prominent. DISCUSSION...Convective development which initiated near/northeast of the Laramie Mountains is now east of the Interstate 25 corridor, and continues to spread northeastward and eastward into the adjacent High Plains. This appears to be occurring just ahead of a weak mid-level trough axis, within 15-20 kt west-southwesterly deep layer mean ambient flow. Due to pronounced veering of wind fields with height, deep-layer shear is sufficiently strong for organized severe convection, including supercells, however. And, objective analysis indicates that the environment across the Sand Hills of Nebraska into the Badlands of South Dakota has become characterized by strong instability. This includes CAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg, in the presence of steep lapse rates. As storms spread into this environment through 01-03Z, rapid thunderstorm intensification appears possible, with considerable further upscale convective growth in the presence of strengthening southerly 850 mb flow to 30 kt. This may be most pronounced near the Nebraska/South Dakota border area, near/northwest of Chadron, through the Badlands, where inhibition associated with very warm elevated mixed-layer air appears weakest. ..Kerr.. 06/27/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 43440451 43820429 44360207 41950207 41410259 41500351 42440380 42920450 43440451 Read more View the full article
  8. MD 1261 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 448... FOR PORTIONS OF OREGON...SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON STATE...AND A SMALL PART OF THE IDAHO PANHANDLE Mesoscale Discussion 1261 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019 Areas affected...portions of Oregon...southeastern Washington State...and a small part of the Idaho Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 448... Valid 262349Z - 270045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 448 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 448. DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered convection continues to drift north/northeast through WW 448 currently. A few of these storms have produced hail and wind gusts approaching severe limits - particularly across central Oregon and extending from far southeast Washington into the Idaho Panhandle where small linear segments have evolved. The overall regime should continue for the next few hours as storms continue to initiate on the southern end of the Watch and drift northward. Weak to moderate instability and strong deep layer shear remain in place, also supporting the continued severe threat. ..Cook.. 06/26/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...MFR...PQR... LAT...LON 44872378 45372300 46352137 47541976 47961834 47951644 47211612 45881614 45211666 44131776 43452006 42892194 42692303 42792371 43442404 44122401 44872378 Read more View the full article
  9. Yesterday
  10. MD 1261 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 448... FOR PORTIONS OF OREGON...SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON STATE...AND A SMALL PART OF THE IDAHO PANHANDLE Mesoscale Discussion 1261 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019 Areas affected...portions of Oregon...southeastern Washington State...and a small part of the Idaho Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 448... Valid 262349Z - 270045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 448 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 448. DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered convection continues to drift north/northeast through WW 448 currently. A few of these storms have produced hail and wind gusts approaching severe limits - particularly across central Oregon and extending from far southeast Washington into the Idaho Panhandle where small linear segments have evolved. The overall regime should continue for the next few hours as storms continue to initiate on the southern end of the Watch and drift northward. Weak to moderate instability and strong deep layer shear remain in place, also supporting the continued severe threat. ..Cook.. 06/26/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...MFR...PQR... LAT...LON 44872378 45372300 46352137 47541976 47961834 47951644 47211612 45881614 45211666 44131776 43452006 42892194 42692303 42792371 43442404 44122401 44872378 Read more View the full article
  11. Severe Weather Statement issued June 26 at 6:58PM EDT until June 26 at 7:30PM EDT by NWS View the full article
  12. Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued June 26 at 6:58PM EDT until June 26 at 7:30PM EDT by NWS View the full article
  13. Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued June 26 at 6:47PM EDT until June 26 at 7:30PM EDT by NWS View the full article
  14. Special Weather Statement issued June 26 at 6:37PM EDT by NWS View the full article
  15. Special Weather Statement issued June 26 at 6:19PM EDT by NWS View the full article
  16. Special Weather Statement issued June 26 at 6:19PM EDT by NWS View the full article
  17. Special Weather Statement issued June 26 at 6:13PM EDT by NWS View the full article
  18. Special Weather Statement issued June 26 at 5:44PM EDT by NWS View the full article
  19. Special Weather Statement issued June 26 at 5:23PM EDT by NWS View the full article
  20. Today in Weather History for June 26 June 26, 1888 Residents of New York suffered through a record heat wave. Daily average temperatures were above 80 degrees for fourteen straight days. The heat wave was a sharp contrast to the severe blizzard in March of that year, which buried the city under nearly two feet of snow. (David Ludlum) June 26, 1977 The Human Lightning Conductor, park ranger Roy C. Sullivan, was struck by lightning for the seventh time. He was first hit in 1942, then again in 1970, 1972, 1973 and 1976. (The Weather Channel) June 26, 1983 Record heat prevailed from Texas to Michigan. Alpena MI hit 98 degrees. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) June 26, 1985 A spectacular early morning waterspout developed at 5:20 AM (MST) from a stationary thunderstorm over the south end of the Great Salt Lake in Utah. It was visible 20 miles away, and lasted four minutes. (The Weather Channel) June 26, 1987 Hot weather prevailed in the Pacific Northwest. Afternoon highs of 88 degrees at Seattle, WA, 103 degrees at Medford, OR, and 111 degrees at Redding, CA, were records for the date. Cloudy and cool weather prevailed in the northeastern U.S. The high at Boston, MA, was just 60 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) June 26, 1988 Thirteen cities in the southeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. In Montana, the record high of 102 degrees at Billings, MT, was their fifteenth of the month, and the high of 108 degrees at Glasgow MT equalled their record for June. Thunderstorms in the Atlantic Coast Region produced wind gusts to 102 mph at Tall Timbers MD. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) June 26, 1989 Thunderstorms produced severe weather from the Central Plains to the Middle Mississippi Valley. There were 129 reports of severe weather during the day and night. Thunderstorms in Kansas produced wind gusts to 90 mph at Liberal, and hail four inches in diameter at Quinter. Thunderstorms in Wisconsin spawned a tornado at Lake Delton injuring four persons. Lightning struck and killed a woman at Junction City, KS, who had gotten out of her car to photograph the lightning. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)crossed northern Mexico), began to spread heavy rain into southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. (The National Weather Summary) June 26, 2011 An upper level disturbance kicked off another round of severe weather that tracked across Georgia. In Cherokee County, nearly three dozen trees were down across the county from northwest of Waleska to south of Canton. At least two homes and three vehicles sustained damage from downed trees. (NWS Atlanta) Data courtesy of WeatherForYou View the full article
  21. MD 1260 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR VERMONT...WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN NEW YORK...AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA Mesoscale Discussion 1260 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019 Areas affected...Vermont...western New hampshire...Western Massachusetts...eastern New York...and northeast Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 262050Z - 262215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The threat for a few strong to severe storms will persist for a few more hours. DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms currently stretches from the Canadian border into east central Pennsylvania. These storms have occasionally produced some wind damage, but none of the storms have posed a persistent severe threat. Expect isolated strong to severe storms with occasional reports of wind damage to continue for a few more hours before storms weaken as they encounter an increasingly stable air mass with eastward extent. The eastward extent of the instability is currently the Hudson River valley (evidenced by the lack of surface based cu development on GOES 16). Cooling temperatures aloft may allow for some additional destabilization in the higher terrain east of the Hudson River valley and thus extend the severe threat across this area. However, farther south the air mass ahead of these storms is not expected to destabilize much downstream. Given the short duration and marginal nature of the severe threat, a severe thunderstorm watch is unlikely. ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/26/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF... CTP... LAT...LON 44907376 45147367 45127249 45127147 44447139 43237179 42557247 41887327 41587392 41137524 40917649 40947721 41187735 41507687 41977625 43137531 43937511 44907376 Read more View the full article
  22. MD 1259 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM INTO THE WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES Mesoscale Discussion 1259 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019 Areas affected...Portions of eastern NM into the western TX/OK Panhandles Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 262049Z - 262315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Occasional strong/gusty winds and marginally severe hail may occur this afternoon and early evening. Watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered storms have developed this afternoon along a lee surface trough across parts of the southern High Plains. Limited low-level moisture across this region will temper instability, with MLCAPE generally 500-1500 J/kg. Still, a deeply mixed boundary layer should support strong/gusty downdraft winds with the strongest storms. Steep mid-level lapse rates may also promote isolated instances of marginally severe hail. Regardless, weak mid-level flow and resultant shear will very likely keep the overall severe threat quite isolated through the early evening. Therefore, watch issuance is not expected. ..Gleason/Hart.. 06/26/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 33320509 33950499 35190450 36930330 36950226 36580189 34610228 33530311 32470438 32740508 33320509 Read more View the full article
  23. MD 1258 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN WY...NORTHEASTERN CO...FAR NORTHWESTERN KS...WESTERN NE...AND SOUTHWESTERN SD Mesoscale Discussion 1258 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019 Areas affected...Portions of eastern WY...northeastern CO...far northwestern KS...western NE...and southwestern SD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 262036Z - 262300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A threat for isolated large hail and damaging winds should gradually increase this afternoon. Some of the hail could be very large (greater than 2 inches in diameter). Watch issuance is possible this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A weak vorticity maximum is moving east-northeastward across southern WY and central CO this afternoon. An increase in agitated cumulus and occasional lightning strikes has recently occurred over the higher terrain of this area. Storms should gradually increase in coverage and intensity as they move northeastward off the higher terrain and convective inhibition erodes with continued diurnal heating. A more moist low-level airmass is present along/east of a weak surface trough and south of a weak front across southwestern SD, western NE, and far northeastern CO/northwestern KS. Very steep mid-level lapse rates observed on 12Z soundings from DNR/LBF and emanating from a pronounced EML remain over this region. Resultant moderate to strong instability quickly increases from west to east across this area, with MLCAPE generally ranging from 1500-3500 J/kg. Although mid-level west-southwesterly flow will likely remain weaker compared to locations farther north, a strongly veering wind profile from low to mid levels will promote effective bulk shear values of 30-45 kt. Initial storm development may be supercellular, with both a large hail and severe wind gust threat. Isolated very large hail may also occur given the strong instability and lapse rates previously noted; this threat appears greatest across parts of eastern WY and southwestern SD where shear is relatively stronger. One or more bowing clusters may ultimately evolve this evening with mainly a damaging wind threat. Depending on convective trends, watch issuance is possible this afternoon for some part of this region. ..Gleason/Hart.. 06/26/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 39590343 40100397 41850467 42710526 44170596 44860527 44910408 44670273 44220158 43180089 41550075 40270084 39620142 39400198 39320270 39590343 Read more View the full article
  24. Special Weather Statement issued June 26 at 4:33PM EDT by NWS View the full article
  25. MD 1257 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST IDAHO AND NORTHWEST MONTANA Mesoscale Discussion 1257 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019 Areas affected...Northeast Idaho and northwest Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 262024Z - 262200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected through the afternoon and evening with a threat for large hail and damaging winds. Some storms may be strong to severe. A severe thunderstorm watch is unlikely. DISCUSSION...Scattered high-based storms have developed across the higher terrain of northern Idaho and northwest Montana. Expect storm coverage to increase through the afternoon and lift northeastward. MLCAPE is expected to peak around 500 to 1000 J/kg with the cooling effects of significant convective coverage and cloud cover stunting additional destabilization. Shear profiles will be supportive of organized convection including the potential for some rotating storms with the stronger updrafts. Expect the more intense storms to remain isolated which will likely preclude the need for a severe thunderstorm watch. ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/26/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...BOI...OTX... LAT...LON 48981379 49001256 48351196 47421192 46681230 45951297 45491382 45161464 45351562 46161610 47731536 48841391 48981379 Read more View the full article
  26. Special Weather Statement issued June 26 at 3:54PM EDT by NWS View the full article
  27. MD 1256 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN WYOMING AND SOUTHERN MONTANA Mesoscale Discussion 1256 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019 Areas affected...Northern Wyoming and southern Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 261948Z - 262145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms area expected into the evening with a threat for large hail and damaging winds. DISCUSSION...Several storms have developed in the higher terrain of northwest Wyoming over the past hour. These storms are currently sub-severe, but expect at least isolated severe storms to develop by later this afternoon as the area destabilizes further. Effective shear around 40-50 knots will support some supercell structures with this activity. Mid-level lapse rates around 7.5 to 8.5 C/km per regional 12Z RAOB will support a threat for large hail. In addition, a deeply mixed sub-cloud layer will support strong downdraft momentum due to evaporative cooling. A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed across parts of the region to cover the threat. ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/26/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...RIW...TFX... LAT...LON 45651214 46621221 46650942 46780682 46270569 45520513 44850534 44180606 44070701 44130914 44031019 44461100 45651214 Read more View the full article
  28. Special Weather Statement issued June 26 at 3:24PM EDT by NWS View the full article
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