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  2. I want to trust the pioneer model, but it is the outlier of the models and has been so wrong last couple of years! We just can’t seem to get out of this La Niña like pattern and before you know it we will be in a La Niña down the Road! Have really enjoyed last couple of days!
  3. Today
  4. Saturday, September 21, 2019 Model Diagnostic Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 257 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Valid Sep 21/0000 UTC thru Sep 24/1200 UTC 00Z Model Evaluation with Preferences and Forecast Confidence ...Synopsis... The synoptic pattern will feature a rather strong deep layer ridge across a large portion of the eastern U.S. this weekend, as a pair of fairly robust northern stream troughs traverse the western and central U.S. The first trough will advance east across the central/northern Plains and upper Midwest Saturday and Sunday along with an attendant cold front and a multiple waves of low pressure riding up along it. This energy will break down the ridge over the East by later Sunday and will allow a cold front to arrive across the OH Valley and lower Great Lakes region by Monday. The height falls are expected to sharpen a bit over the Northeast by Tuesday, and there is support for a somewhat stronger surface low to develop over the interior of northern New England as the cold front pushes off the East Coast. Meanwhile, a second upstream trough will cross the West Coast and move into the Great Basin by Monday before then cutting off from the westerlies and dropping into the Southwest on Tuesday. This upper trough will be a key player in also steering the moisture and energy associated with Hurricane Lorena up across areas of northwest Mexico and into parts of the Four Corners region on Monday and Tuesday. By the end of the period, a new northern stream trough will begin to advance across the northern High Plains along with a cold front. ...Deep trough crossing the Plains/Midwest this weekend... ...Energy closing off over the Northeast early next week... Preference: General model blend...through 60 hours Non-GFS blend...after 60 hours Confidence: Slightly above average Model differences with the first trough are rather small through most of the weekend as the energy crosses the Intermountain West and advances across the Plains and Midwest, but by later Monday and Tuesday as the energy crosses the Great Lakes and moves into the Northeast, the 00Z GFS becomes a bit more progressive than the remaining guidance. The 00Z non-NCEP guidance is now all very well clustered and close to that of the 00Z NAM. The 00Z GEFS mean is a tad more progressive than the non-GFS suite of models toward the end of the period, but not as progressive as the deterministic GFS, which suggests the GFS is a bit of an outlier at least by the end of the period. Will recommend a general model blend through about 60 hours, and then a non-GFS blend thereafter. ...Upper trough digging into the West by Monday... ...Closed low evolution over the Southwest by Tuesday... ...Moisture/energy associated with Hurricane Lorena... Preference: Blend of the 00Z NAM/GFS and 00Z UKMET Confidence: Average...becoming below average by Mon/Tues Regarding the second trough, the model guidance is well clustered and in good agreement with respect to timing and depth as the system arrives on Monday in across the Intermountain West. However, by Tuesday as the energy cuts off and drops south into the Southwest, the 00Z ECMWF is positioned west of the 00Z NAM/GFS and 00Z UKMET solutions which are now pretty well clustered. The 00Z CMC is now the farthest east solution by the end of the period. The spread in the guidance does still play a role in how the moisture and energy associated with Hurricane Lorena evolves which is expected to lift north through the Gulf of CA and across adjacent areas of northwest Mexico through the period. The 00Z GEFS mean is farthest east with its trough/closed low at the end of the period and is even a little east of the CMC solution. The 12Z ECENS mean tends to support the majority cluster of solutions, but it does suggest the 00Z ECMWF may be a tad too far west. Based on the latest clustering of solutions, a blend of the 00Z NAM/GFS and 00Z UKMET will be preferred. Confidence becomes a bit limited late in the period though based on the relatively large ensemble spread seen with the height fall details. ...Upper trough over the northern High Plains by Tuesday... Preference: General model blend Confidence: Above average The models have good agreement overall with the details of a northern stream trough and associated cold front crossing the northern High Plains by Tuesday. The 00Z GFS is just a tad sharper than the remaining guidance, but the model differences are modest enough that a general model blend can be preferred. Orrison Model Diagnostic DiscussionPreferred Height Pattern500 mb Height TrendsForecast issued by the Weather Prediction Center
  5. Gooooood morning! Are you ready for some football? 🙂 It's going to be a great day for it! There are big differences in temperatures between the Euro and GFS as we move out a little further, and I'm siding with the GFS right now. The Euro wasn't seeing this current cool down in advance, and it's like it's having a difficult time seeing any cool at all. In case you were wondering, here is Weatherbell's look at fall and a preliminary look at winter temperature anomalies. They have lots of reasoning behind what you see here, and these maps are based on August/early September inputs. Other than that... crickets.... As long as we stay under a dome og high pressure... nothing changes and nothing happens. I noticed in the forecast that for the next several days, the winds would be 0-5 mph, or for all practical purposes, non-existent. Hang in there... watch some football, and have a cold one for me! 🙂 Cheers! 🍺 I hope everyone has a GREAT weekend! 🍺 It sure is nice to be home!
  6. Rip Current Statement issued September 21 at 3:44AM EDT until September 21 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS View the full article
  7. Rip Current Statement issued September 21 at 3:04AM EDT until September 21 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS View the full article
  8. MD 1995 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 655...656... FOR PORTIONS OF ND...SD AND NORTHWEST MN Mesoscale Discussion 1995 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Areas affected...portions of ND...SD and northwest MN Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 655...656... Valid 210622Z - 210745Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 655, 656 continues. SUMMARY...Overall severe threat is expected to be limited the remainder of the night. Additional watches are not expected and WW 655 and 656 likely will be allowed to expire as scheduled. DISCUSSION...Convection associated with earlier bowing segment across central and eastern ND into northwest MN continues to weaken as outflow has surged ahead of the line. Thunderstorms continue to develop just behind the outflow atop the cold pool in a warm advection regime aided by a 40-50 kt southwesterly low level jet as evident in region VWP data. Overall severe threat is expected to remain limited with this line as vertical shear becomes increasingly veered with time as the upper trough shifts eastward overnight and as midlevel lapse rates become increasingly less favorable with continued heavy rain/training thunderstorm activity. Further south, an MCV has shifted northward into south-central ND. This area could continue to see some marginally better organized storms the next couple of hours, but remains on the western fringe of stronger low level jet and the eastern fringe of stronger effective shear. And with the aforementioned weakening midlevel lapse rates, this convection also is expected to struggle to produce severe gusts of hail the remainder of the night. An additional line of convection is moving into south-central SD and along the NE border. While this convection will be moving into a more pristine airmass that has not been contaminated by earlier convection, this activity will likely remain somewhat elevated and eventually will merge with the outflow from the line of storms across central/eastern ND. Overall, the severe threat is expected to be limited overnight and a downstream watch into central/eastern SD is not expected at this time. Furthermore, Severe Thunderstorm Watches 655 and 656 will likely be allowed to expire as scheduled. ..Leitman.. 09/21/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 47290021 47379920 47329835 47509765 47899692 48389599 48629552 48589489 48309474 47779492 46969532 45399609 44859635 44149666 43559737 43319814 43109931 43040033 43100086 43310115 43730114 44900132 45990142 46830099 47290021 Read more View the full article
  9. No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Sep 21 05:16:03 UTC 2019. View the full article
  10. MD 1994 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 655... FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA Mesoscale Discussion 1994 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Areas affected...northern parts of the Nebraska Panhandle into western and central South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 655... Valid 210320Z - 210515Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 655 continues. SUMMARY...Local severe risk continues with scattered, vigorous storms over portions of WW 655. DISCUSSION...latest radar loop shows scattered strong/locally severe storms moving northeast across western South Dakota, and adjacent portions of the Nebraska Panhandle. While cool/stable air continues to surge southward across eastern Wyoming, a relatively moist/unstable airmass persists across much of central South Dakota, downstream of the ongoing storms. As such, local severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail -- will likely continue over the next few hours. With an airmass largely uncontaminated by prior convection continuing across north-central South Dakota, northeast of WW 665, some severe risk could spread out of the WW and into these areas over the next couple of hours. Though this region was previously included within now-expired WW 654, expansion of ww 655 into these areas may be required, if convection -- and associated severe risk -- increases in conjunction with the strengthening low-level jet. ..Goss.. 09/21/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 42230098 42080194 42610327 42890316 43720321 44220348 44850316 45730198 45989966 45859833 44589858 43179951 42230098 Read more View the full article
  11. MD 1993 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 654...655... FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA Mesoscale Discussion 1993 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0927 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Areas affected...central and eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 654...655... Valid 210227Z - 210430Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 654, 655 continues. SUMMARY...Storms continue to weaken across central North Dakota, but strong/locally severe storms continue farther east -- within WW 656. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows largely elevated storms -- north of remnant outflow -- ongoing across central North Dakota at this time. While a few vigorous updrafts remain, severe risk continues to diminish across this area. Though hail approaching severe levels may persist for another hour or two, the scheduled 03Z expiration time for this watch appears reasonable. Farther east, a few rotating storms have persisted -- mainly near the North Dakota/Minnesota border. However, an outflow surge from storms to the west is crossing northeast North Dakota and has reached far northwestern Minnesota, and is now interacting with the aforementioned cluster of occasionally rotating storms. While severe risk -- including potential for a brief tornado or two -- continues across this area, along with local hail/wind risk, the overall threat appears to have peaked, with a gradual diminishing trend expected to continue over the next few hours. ..Goss.. 09/21/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 46609870 46230048 46910091 47630008 47979853 48989726 48989583 48729473 47219424 45979509 46299748 46609870 Read more View the full article
  12. Rip Current Statement issued September 20 at 9:41PM EDT until September 21 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS View the full article
  13. MD 1992 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 655... FOR FAR EASTERN WYOMING...THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA Mesoscale Discussion 1992 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Areas affected...far eastern Wyoming...the Nebraska Panhandle...and western South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 655... Valid 210053Z - 210300Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 655 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated severe risk persists across portions of WW 655. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows isolated stronger cells occurring at this time across parts of eastern Wyoming and northern portions of the Nebraska Panhandle, moving toward southwestern South Dakota. The storms are ongoing near and ahead of the southeastward-moving cold front, within an amply unstable airmass, and may expand in coverage over the next couple of hours as a southerly low-level jet strengthens over the region. Along with ongoing risk for hail with a few of the strongest storm cores, damaging-wind potential may increase, if storms can organize/grow upscale in conjunction with the developing LLJ. ..Goss.. 09/21/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 41800484 42730448 44120471 44820314 45000215 44920081 44350038 42710078 41520267 41800484 Read more View the full article
  14. MD 1990 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE Mesoscale Discussion 1990 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0608 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Areas affected...eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 202308Z - 210115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Limited/local risk for hail/wind may spread east out of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle over the next few hours. WW issuance is not anticipated at this time. DISCUSSION...Latest visible imagery shows isolated thunderstorms developing over east-central and northeastern New Mexico, with another cluster of storms near the Texas Panhandle/New Mexico border. The strongest storm is indicated over southwestern Quay County, New Mexico, and appears to be occurring at the intersection of a dryline, and an outflow boundary associated with the aforementioned cluster of storms to the northeast of this cell near the Texas/New Mexico border. The initiation area is characterized by a relatively moist (low 60s dewpoints) boundary layer, which -- in conjunction with diurnal heating -- is yielding 500 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE. Ascent across the region is potentially being aided by a weak/subtle vort max shifting northeastward across the area per WV imagery. While storms would otherwise be expected to diminish with the loss of diurnal heating early this evening, some CAM runs hint that storms may grow upscale into a small bowing cluster. Should this occur, severe risk could become locally enhanced -- but even so, the limited areal and temporal nature of the risk suggests that a WW will likely remain unnecessary. ..Goss/Edwards.. 09/20/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 33210530 34000514 34650475 35160427 35410350 35940309 36400241 36120191 35180196 34240265 33200372 33080504 33210530 Read more View the full article
  15. MD 1991 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA Mesoscale Discussion 1991 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Areas affected...Central/Eastern North Dakota and Northwest Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 202350Z - 210115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Ongoing clusters of severe storms will likely enter/continue downstream of WW 654. A new watch will likely be issued within the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows multiple clusters of storms throughout the warm sector over portions of central/eastern North Dakota. Convection that developed along/near a cold front within WW 654 has congealed into a north-south oriented line, with the strongest storms currently residing in northeastern North Dakota along/near a warm front. Other convection has freely developed within the warm sector across portions of southeastern North Dakota in response to a subtle mid-level short-wave trough in concert with synoptic-scale height falls. Although uncertainty exists in the short-term evolution of the ongoing convective clusters, it seems likely that upscale growth of storms over central North Dakota will continue and begin exiting WW 654 within the next 1-2 hours. Meanwhile, storms across southeast North Dakota should persist. Mesoanalysis over this region shows 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE amidst weak deep-layer shear. However, RAP soundings indicate the potential for an uptick in low-level shear, perhaps to 30-35 kt. Large hail and damaging wind gusts remain the primary threats with this activity. Thus, a new watch will likely be needed for areas downstream of WW 654. ..Karstens/Edwards.. 09/20/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 45999877 46450032 47850052 48839993 49029857 48929557 47899511 46629504 45959591 45999877 Read more View the full article
  16. Yesterday
  17. MD 1991 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA Mesoscale Discussion 1991 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Areas affected...Central/Eastern North Dakota and Northwest Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 202350Z - 210115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Ongoing clusters of severe storms will likely enter/continue downstream of WW 654. A new watch will likely be issued within the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows multiple clusters of storms throughout the warm sector over portions of central/eastern North Dakota. Convection that developed along/near a cold front within WW 654 has congealed into a north-south oriented line, with the strongest storms currently residing in northeastern North Dakota along/near a warm front. Other convection has freely developed within the warm sector across portions of southeastern North Dakota in response to a subtle mid-level short-wave trough in concert with synoptic-scale height falls. Although uncertainty exists in the short-term evolution of the ongoing convective clusters, it seems likely that upscale growth of storms over central North Dakota will continue and begin exiting WW 654 within the next 1-2 hours. Meanwhile, storms across southeast North Dakota should persist. Mesoanalysis over this region shows 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE amidst weak deep-layer shear. However, RAP soundings indicate the potential for an uptick in low-level shear, perhaps to 30-35 kt. Large hail and damaging wind gusts remain the primary threats with this activity. Thus, a new watch will likely be needed for areas downstream of WW 654. ..Karstens/Edwards.. 09/20/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 45999877 46450032 47850052 48839993 49029857 48929557 47899511 46629504 45959591 45999877 Read more View the full article
  18. MD 1990 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE Mesoscale Discussion 1990 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0608 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Areas affected...eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 202308Z - 210115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Limited/local risk for hail/wind may spread east out of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle over the next few hours. WW issuance is not anticipated at this time. DISCUSSION...Latest visible imagery shows isolated thunderstorms developing over east-central and northeastern New Mexico, with another cluster of storms near the Texas Panhandle/New Mexico border. The strongest storm is indicated over southwestern Quay County, New Mexico, and appears to be occurring at the intersection of a dryline, and an outflow boundary associated with the aforementioned cluster of storms to the northeast of this cell near the Texas/New Mexico border. The initiation area is characterized by a relatively moist (low 60s dewpoints) boundary layer, which -- in conjunction with diurnal heating -- is yielding 500 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE. Ascent across the region is potentially being aided by a weak/subtle vort max shifting northeastward across the area per WV imagery. While storms would otherwise be expected to diminish with the loss of diurnal heating early this evening, some CAM runs hint that storms may grow upscale into a small bowing cluster. Should this occur, severe risk could become locally enhanced -- but even so, the limited areal and temporal nature of the risk suggests that a WW will likely remain unnecessary. ..Goss/Edwards.. 09/20/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 33210530 34000514 34650475 35160427 35410350 35940309 36400241 36120191 35180196 34240265 33200372 33080504 33210530 Read more View the full article
  19. Rip Current Statement issued September 20 at 5:36PM EDT until September 21 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS View the full article
  20. MD 1989 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN WYOMING...NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA Mesoscale Discussion 1989 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Areas affected...eastern Wyoming...northwest Nebraska and western South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 202007Z - 202200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon into the evening, posing a risk for isolated large hail, damaging wind and a tornado or two. Depending on convective trends, a WW might be needed by 22Z. DISCUSSION...A couple of storms are in the process of developing over the higher terrain of southeast WY as well as farther north over the Black Hills of western SD. This regime is mostly post-frontal with a quasi-stationary or slow moving cold front from the western Dakotas into southeast WY where surface dewpoints are in the 50s and temperatures are rising through the 70s. Latest objective analysis show 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE in the post-frontal regime with 1500-2000 j/kg farther east in warm sector. Storms are expected to increase in coverage from eastern WY into western SD and northwest NE as deeper forcing for ascent accompanying an upstream shortwave trough spreads east above the destabilizing boundary layer. Winds aloft will strengthen with approach of the shortwave trough, supporting 40-50 kt effective bulk shear and some supercell structures. Isolated large hail and damaging wind will be the main threats. A secondary branch of the low-level jet is forecast to increase this evening from western NE into western SD in response to the approaching upper trough. A small window might exist by early evening in this region for a couple of tornadoes, before the surface layer begins to decouple. ..Dial/Hart.. 09/20/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 41720495 43370439 45040367 44840190 43720179 42030322 41720495 Read more View the full article
  21. No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Sep 20 19:46:06 UTC 2019. View the full article
  22. Rip Current Statement issued September 20 at 3:04PM EDT until September 21 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS View the full article
  23. MD 1988 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR TX CAPROCK VICINITY AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS Mesoscale Discussion 1988 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Areas affected...TX Caprock vicinity and Low Rolling Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 201835Z - 201930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storm intensity may maximize as developing storms move near and cross the earlier-day outflow boundary draped across parts of the TX Rolling Plains to near the greater Lubbock area. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a swelling cumulus field and scattered thunderstorms initiating from near and south-southwest of Lubbock arcing southeast and east across the TX Rolling Plains. Surface analysis indicates a stationary outflow boundary is oriented similarly to where storms are developing east of Lubbock. KLBB VAD data shows around 30kt south-southwesterly 500mb flow atop backed low-level east-southeasterlies. The latest RAP forecast soundings show modest 700-500mb lapse rates with a very moist profile from the surface through the midlevels. Around 2500 J/kg MLCAPE is currently analyzed. It appears the greatest combination of shear/CAPE is located near the boundary where the hodograph has been augmented and is resulting in 100-200 m2/s^2 effective SRH. Therefore the risk for a supercell or two may focus within the aforementioned corridor along the outflow boundary where a brief supercell tornado could occur later this afternoon. The coverage and magnitude of the severe risk will likely preclude a convective watch issuance but trends will continue to be monitored. ..Smith/Hart.. 09/20/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 33580206 33480126 33340038 32800025 32730114 33110190 33580206 Read more View the full article
  24. Rip Current Statement issued September 20 at 2:35PM EDT until September 21 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS View the full article
  25. MD 1987 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA Mesoscale Discussion 1987 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Areas affected...western through central North Dakota and northwest South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 201749Z - 201945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A few storms may continue to pose a risk for mainly isolated large hail early this afternoon. The threat for isolated damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes will also increase later this afternoon and evening. DISCUSSION...Early this afternoon thunderstorms continue developing over western ND and northwest SD, primarily within a post-frontal zone of deeper ascent associated with a northeast-moving shortwave trough interacting with a cold front that extends across the western Dakotas. These storms are elevated, but effective bulk shear from 40-45 kt is supporting mid-level rotation, and radar data has indicated occasional large hail. The downstream warm sector is destabilizing with MLCAPE from 1500-2000 J/kg as temperatures warm through the 80s. However, the atmosphere is still capped to surface based parcels. By 20-21Z, convective inhibition should weaken sufficiently for surface based storms to develop along the front. Though mixed storms modes are likely, effective bulk shear from 30-40 kt will support some organized structures including a few supercells and bowing line segments. Damaging wind and large hail should be the main threats. A couple of tornadoes will also be possible, especially with any storm interacting with warm front over northern ND where 0-1 km hodograph size will be somewhat larger. ..Dial/Hart.. 09/20/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 47970256 48880158 48859952 48239933 47350007 45410163 46090279 47970256 Read more View the full article
  26. Rip Current Statement issued September 20 at 1:15PM EDT until September 20 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS View the full article
  27. Hate this dryness right now. Concerning as we head to late fall/early winter when red flag conditions are more common and fuel sources rise dramatically with fresh leaf litter.
  28. Rip Current Statement issued September 20 at 9:36AM EDT until September 20 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS View the full article
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