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NorthGeorgiaWX

December Weather Discussion

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Looking ahead...

The first week of December is setting up to be cold and stormy if the models are correct. 

Teleconnections are favorable for a cold eastern US. Here's the general model consensus as of now:

EPO - The EPO shows a negative dip through the 8-10th of the month. This helps to cutoff the flow of the warmer Pacific air and force it north. We want negative for winter weather.

AO - All models have the AO negative for at least the first 10 days of the month. We want negative for winter weather.

NAO - For the most part, the models keep the NAO in the neutral to negative range. We want negative for winter weather.

The MJO is rotating through the 8-1-2 phases and and as you can see from the image below, phase 8 during this time of the year is a cold one. 

27-Snap321.thumb.jpg.c1d1b7434ff112129e07fb9175f2f3a3.jpg

 

I'm getting interested in the Saturday December 8th time frame though.... 😉 You do remember what happened last year on December 8th and 9th don't you? ❄️ Winter will be here before you know it! 💮

https://www.weather.gov/ffc/20171208_Winter_Storm

 

27-GFS Pressure Lev United States Precip Type & MSLP 276.png

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1 hour ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Looking ahead...

The first week of December is setting up to be cold and stormy if the models are correct. 

Teleconnections are favorable for a cold eastern US. Here's the general model consensus as of now:

EPO - The EPO shows a negative dip through the 8-10th of the month. This helps to cutoff the flow of the warmer Pacific air and force it north. We want negative for winter weather.

AO - All models have the AO negative for at least the first 10 days of the month. We want negative for winter weather.

NAO - For the most part, the models keep the NAO in the neutral to negative range. We want negative for winter weather.

The MJO is rotating through the 8-1-2 phases and and as you can see from the image below, phase 8 during this time of the year is a cold one. 

27-Snap321.thumb.jpg.c1d1b7434ff112129e07fb9175f2f3a3.jpg

 

I'm getting interested in the Saturday December 8th time frame though.... 😉 You do remember what happened last year on December 8th and 9th don't you? ❄️ Winter will be here before you know it! 💮

https://www.weather.gov/ffc/20171208_Winter_Storm

 

27-GFS Pressure Lev United States Precip Type & MSLP 276.png

I remember what happened in that time last year and now I'm interested in the Saturday December 8th time frame too!! Fingers crossed! 🌨☃️

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Bastardi:

Quote

The Verdict

  • Euro faster on cold air.
  • Goes right into deep cold winter idea.

The cold will start its return after the mid-month mild spell, and the winter pattern will get established after that, as per long-standing ideas.

 

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