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NorthGeorgiaWX

Potential Winter Threat - December 6-11

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2 minutes ago, DDD_GON_WEATHER said:

Looking at the 00Z 12K NAM the LPS is 150 Miles roughly NORTH of the 18Z.  That does not bode well downstream IMO.  We will see.  I am through 31 Hours.

That’s funny. I’m at hour 36 and it’s actually further south by a hair 

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5 minutes ago, Shannon said:

That’s funny. I’m at hour 36 and it’s actually further south by a hair 

I noticed as it came across Mexico it was bouncing like a ping pong ball... sorta wild actually.

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4 minutes ago, DDD_GON_WEATHER said:

Yep.  Now she's settled in on the coast... not much change at all from that standpoint.

Looks identical to this point. Freezing rain map will tell us a lot 

 

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Snow showers on the back side will be nice.  Light, but nice to see.  I agree... I think ZR here will be hard to come by.  We shall see.  I am currently looking through my archives from Feb 2015.

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22 minutes ago, WILL said:

Just a wait and see 

Yep. Just nothing else to say about it. Models keep moving back and forth rather substantially with even the slightest changes in the big picture. So lets just get all the players on the field and see what happens. Gonna be a nowcasting event for most areas on the edges anyway. For what its worth I'm hoping the Fv3 GFS has had this thing right from the very beginning, as it has showed remarkable consistency for over a week now. Unfortunately, around these parts, in the end that can often just mean the model consistently wrong for over a week lol

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Quote

Special Weather Statement issued December 7 at 4:36AM EST by NWS Peachtree City GA

Alert

 

A complex storm system will affect north and central Georgia
beginning late Friday, continuing through the weekend and into early
next week. Confidence is increasing that a period of mixed wintry
precipitation, mainly in the form of freezing rain and sleet, will
occur late Saturday night through Sunday across northeast and parts
of north Georgia.

At this time, the best chance of seeing measurable ice accumulations
will be north and east of a Homer to Gainesville to Dawsonville
line. The rain-freezing rain line could move as far south and west as
Canton to Cumming to Lawrenceville to Winder to Athens, where a mix
of rain and freezing rain is possible.

Outside of the winter weather threat, across parts of north and
middle Georgia, heavy rain Saturday into early Sunday could result in
up to 3 inches of rainfall. This will likely elevate the threat for
localized flooding or flash flooding.

Sunday night into Monday, wrap-around moisture in the colder air
behind the system could result in some light snow showers across
portions of north and central Georgia.

Stay tuned to the very latest forecasts from your local media outlets
and National Weather Service office as this complex storm system
evolves over the next couple days. If you live or are traveling
across the higher elevations of northeast Georgia especially, prepare
now for winter weather conditions and hazardous driving conditions
late this weekend into early next week.

Instructions

 

 

Target Area

 

Marion; Crisp; Barrow; Monroe; Butts; Walton; Upson; Dawson; Houston; Fayette; Dade; Dodge; Treutlen; Paulding; Forsyth; Twiggs; Taliaferro; Wheeler; Troup; Webster; Oglethorpe; Douglas; Jasper; Gilmer; Bleckley; Taylor; Chattooga; Rockdale; Pike; Montgomery; Schley; Morgan; Putnam; Whitfield; Wilkinson; Hall; Heard; Jefferson; Bartow; Pulaski; Gwinnett; Wilcox; Clayton; Jones; Meriwether; Carroll; Catoosa; Talbot; Banks; Laurens; Gordon; Crawford; Toombs; Cobb; Macon; Hancock; Oconee; Sumter; Floyd; Johnson; Chattahoochee; Coweta; Fannin; De Kalb; Spalding; Baldwin; Henry; North Fulton; Haralson; Lamar; Glascock; Jackson; Dooly; Walker; Clarke; Warren; Bibb; Madison; Murray; Newton; Greene; Telfair; Washington; Peach; Emanuel; Cherokee; South Fulton; Muscogee; Pickens; Stewart; Harris; Wilkes; Polk

 

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Just now, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

I don't know... I'm just starting to think we may just have a cold rain.

That’s exactly how I felt when I went to bed last night and that’s exactly how I feel this morning!  Reason why there’s just not really a true source of cold air unfortunately.  No true HP...

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There's your Winter Storm Watch

Snap34548-06.thumb.jpg.78cda69ff9e52d1db67094c4f769f796.jpg

Quote

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
402 AM EST FRI DEC 7 2018


GAZ008-009-015-016-071715-
/O.NEW.KFFC.WS.A.0001.181209T0600Z-181210T0600Z/
UNION-TOWNS-LUMPKIN-WHITE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF BLAIRSVILLE, BLOOD MOUNTAIN SHELTER, 
GADDISTOWN, GOOCH MOUNTAIN SHELTER, HAWK MOUNTAIN SHELTER, 
IVY LOG, JONES CREEK, ALEXANDERS MILL, BLUE MOUNTAIN SHELTER, 
BRASSTOWN BALD, GUMLOG, HIAWASSEE, MACEDONIA, MOUNTAIN SCENE, 
DAHLONEGA, AND CLEVELAND
402 AM EST FRI DEC 7 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...HEAVY MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
  OF 1 TO 2 INCHES, WITH UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHEST  
  RIDGES. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE.

* WHERE...UNION, TOWNS, LUMPKIN AND WHITE COUNTIES.

* WHEN...FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW, 
SLEET OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO 
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. 

 

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Just now, Dahlonegawinter said:

That’s exactly how I felt when I went to bed last night and that’s exactly how I feel this morning!  Reason why there’s just not really a true source of cold air unfortunately.  No true HP...

Yea, I made that comment yesterday. A few days ago I also mentioned that I wasn't seeing a big CAD signal, and I was correct about that too. 

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13 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

I don't know... I'm just starting to think we may just have a cold rain.

Yeah starting to sound about right. Love it when it’s 34-38 degrees and rains a couple inches! (Sarcasm implied) 

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2 minutes ago, Shannon said:

Yeah starting to sound about right. Love it when it’s 34-38 degrees and rains a couple inches! (Sarcasm implied) 

Isn't winter in the south so much fun! 😜 Let me off this ride... 🙂

And glad you made it over here Shannon! 

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I mean LOOK at that track. Seriously. Any other time and we'd have more cold air. That lack of cold air source killed this storm, otherwise we'd have feet. If we can get that in January and February, it would be better than '93.

lowtrack_ensembles-07.thumb.gif.4d8894ba35929e5f5848589bb77335c7.gif

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15 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

I mean LOOK at that track. Seriously. Any other time and we'd have more cold air. That lack of cold air source killed this storm, otherwise we'd have feet. If we can get that in January and February, it would be better than '93.

lowtrack_ensembles-07.thumb.gif.4d8894ba35929e5f5848589bb77335c7.gif

We still have all winter to get our big snow storm which means the fun is just beginning!!

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1 hour ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

I don't know... I'm just starting to think we may just have a cold rain.

You sure know how to mess up my morning. Gezzz...

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2 minutes ago, Dyan said:

We still have all winter to get our big snow storm which means the fun is just beginning!!

Absolutely! People have already been spoiled by last years storm that over performed big time. I am not worried about winter at all. Already seeing tracks like these makes my mouth water... :classic_laugh:

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1 minute ago, Christine said:

I was so hoping to wake up to good news :classic_sad:

I know.. me too. Hoping all of a sudden, cold air would magically appear and our temps would drop to 28 degrees and stay there for 5 straight days. That 2-3" of rain would suddenly turn into 2-3 feet of snow and we'd all live happily ever after in our snow castles. 🙂

I will not be defeated though... ❄️

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