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Potential Winter Threat - December 6-11

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Following along but wanted to mention that I love the new site and new format.  So much better than facebook.  As always, thank you NorthGeorgiaWX for doing this!

 

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And this just snuck into our area with in the last hour...

 

Snowfall Tonight and Wednesday morning A winter weather system moving through the Southern Appalachian

Region tonight into Wednesday will generate scattered snowfall

across the area. Areas generally north over I-40 can see

accumulations of less than an inch. The East TN Mountains and

higher elevations of Southwest VA could see amounts of 1 to 2

inches. A snow advisory is in effect for these areas.

 

Use caution driving tonight into Wednesday morning...the snow may

cause slick spots and locally reduced visibilites.

 

 

 

 

Issuing Office: Knoxville/Tri-Cities

 

Source: National Weather Service

 

Issued: Tue, Dec 4, 3:36 PM EST

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10 minutes ago, Mudrun said:

Following along but wanted to mention that I love the new site and new format.  So much better than facebook.  As always, thank you NorthGeorgiaWX for doing this!

 

AWESOME!!! Love to hear that! Thanks a lot and thanks for following! :classic_biggrin:

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6 minutes ago, Cay said:

We have made it to Murphy and now we wait and watch. 

Awesome! I sent my wife an email a little while ago asking her if she wanted to go on an adventure this weekend. Thought about getting a room near Clayton, but Franklin may be another option.  Have to get the wife on board first! 🙂 

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Looks like everyone is getting on the roller coaster for the ride.  Alarm bells are sounding in the upstate and now Robert (wx south) is on board for Northeast GA.  Nothing like the highs and lows of a big winter weather storm 5 days out.  Gonna be a fun ride.   

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15 minutes ago, sf0606 said:

Looks like everyone is getting on the roller coaster for the ride.  Alarm bells are sounding in the upstate and now Robert (wx south) is on board for Northeast GA.  Nothing like the highs and lows of a big winter weather storm 5 days out.  Gonna be a fun ride.   

It’s more fun being on the roller coaster than watching from the sidelines 😅

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30 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Awesome! I sent my wife an email a little while ago asking her if she wanted to go on an adventure this weekend. Thought about getting a room near Clayton, but Franklin may be another option.  Have to get the wife on board first! 🙂 

Well... that didn't go over too well. :classic_wacko:

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7 minutes ago, Christine said:

Sooo is it still possible for Atlanta ( Midtown area) to get snow??? I was sooo excited yesterday 😩

It is still possible, but either the wedge needs to be stronger, the low further south, or some other good karma needs to happen before that happens. 🙂 The problem with downtown Atlanta is the urban heat island effect. It's going to be warmer than the surround suburbs no matter what. We need air colder than this to make any appreciable snow in Atlanta.

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What is your take on the European model for snow fall the next 10 days? Looking interesting 

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3 hours ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Awesome! I sent my wife an email a little while ago asking her if she wanted to go on an adventure this weekend. Thought about getting a room near Clayton, but Franklin may be another option.  Have to get the wife on board first! 🙂 

Plenty of VRBO options up Sky Valley and Highlands way. Several close by stations on WUnderground that give pretty accurate info as well 😉

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GFS 0z is no Bueno! Big shift N, no snow for Upstate on that one! Hopefully, it’s just off! Now we get to start focusing on the NAM! If the Euro goes N tonight, that’s gonna be rough, and hard to take!

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8 hours ago, GaDawg said:

How has the new FV3-GFS being doing with forecasting events so far.  

It's been a little weaker that the others but still showing the same basic thing.

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Good morning! We are still on track! There is the latest ensemble from the GFS and Euro

gefs_snow_ens_ky_29-05.thumb.png.5118d5eb0bfc9d5f289d6b2df1a10d0e.png

 

gefs_snow_mean_ky_29-05.thumb.png.0cbd6dfa58d04abf6e8fa9733d32375f.png

Excerpt from Firsthand Weather

Quote

Tennessee, the northern third of Alabama/Georgia, and the Carolinas poses the greatest forecast challenge. Strong high pressure will be located to the north, as discussed in my last article, but the low pressure system will deepen as it crosses the Gulf coast states. Additionally, cold air damming will establish itself along the east side of the Appalachians, which will allow cold air at and near the surface to spill into western and central North Carolina, northern South Carolina (including the Upstate), and northeast Georgia. Places such as Atlanta, GA and Chattanooga, TN will likely be placed relatively close to the cold rain/frozen precipitation line.

Given the latest trends in surface low strength, warm air will likely get advected over the colder air at the surface; thus, a transition from snow to ice (sleet/freezing rain) will probably eventually occur across some locations. Since I anticipate the presence of this warm nose aloft, I currently am not ruling out the possibility of an ice storm somewhere across northeastern Georgia, South Carolina, and across central parts of North Carolina. Colder air will be deeper across western North Carolina and into Virginia; thus a significant snowstorm will be more probable across those locations. The latest European model depicts this well. It has the heavier snowfall totals across northern Upstate SC, western and central NC, and southern Virginia. The European model is a bit more bullish on snowfall totals south of I-85 across northeast Georgia and the Carolinas than I would be at this point, but that’s because I believe ice could cut back on total snowfall amounts in those areas. The Atlanta area needs to cautiously monitor the latest forecasts, even though I believe the main event will be to your north and northeast. BUT, it only takes a ‘little’ snow and ice to cause a big mess. That currently is my biggest uncertainty with this forecast.

 

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When is this supposed to start? We have tickets for the Baltmore Friday night. I hope to be back in Winder Saturday around noon. As much as we love snow, I definitely do not want to be stuck up there. I would much rather see it at the house. 

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13 minutes ago, Palmer655 said:

When is this supposed to start? We have tickets for the Baltmore Friday night. I hope to be back in Winder Saturday around noon. As much as we love snow, I definitely do not want to be stuck up there. I would much rather see it at the house. 

For the Biltmore? You should be good. Now... it you wanted to stay an extra day or two... you'll get to see several feet of snow up there. 🙂 

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11 hours ago, WILL said:

What is your take on the European model for snow fall the next 10 days? Looking interesting 

It's more aggressive with snow than the GFS

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Great twitter thread from Anthony. He's talking about a 50/50 low setup. Notice in this first image, how the the area of blue (low pressure) moves SW. The area is also associated with part of the polar vortex. The low, in combination with Greenland blocking, can help to force storms south (suppressed) and allow for more cold air to filter in. Something to keep an eye on.

 

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