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NorthGeorgiaWX

Potential Winter Threat - December 6-11

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2 hours ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

 

My parents will be going to Biltmore this weekend, I should tag along since Marietta will probably get nothing. :classic_blink:

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Just now getting into range of the short range models, and the old NAM brings a little light snow for many.

And here's the thing, the one reason I don't want to listen to snow/ice/sleet amounts is that all of it is going to change between now and Sunday. We need to get to at least Friday to really start getting any confidence in things. Many people are asking about their area, and if anyone gives a concrete answer at this point , they are only making stuff up. Sorry... I even see experienced mets doing it and it makes no sense. Yes, we know the mountains of NC are going to get hammered, but once you get outside that area, things get much trickier. This will not be an easy forecast for north Georgia and SC. 

NOT A FORECAST - 1 am Sunday

nam_3hr_snow_acc_atl_29-05.thumb.png.b23bd3edcde5932e19953d089d72de7a.png

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9 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Just now getting into range of the short range models, and the old NAM brings a little light snow for many.

And here's the thing, the one reason I don't want to listen to snow/ice/sleet amounts is that all of it is going to change between now and Sunday. We need to get to at least Friday to really start getting any confidence in things. Many people are asking about their area, and if anyone gives a concrete answer at this point , they are only making stuff up. Sorry... I even see experienced mets doing it and it makes no sense. Yes, we know the mountains of NC are going to get hammered, but once you get outside that area, things get much trickier. This will not be an easy forecast for north Georgia and SC. 

NOT A FORECAST - 1 am Sunday

nam_3hr_snow_acc_atl_29-05.thumb.png.b23bd3edcde5932e19953d089d72de7a.png

I'm really liking that little blue spot right over my house

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NWS Atlanta - Wednesday evening

Quote

LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...
Latest model runs are coming in a little wetter than the previous
runs. Therefore have increased pops across the CWA this weekend.
QPF is also coming in a little higher with general total amounts
of 2 to 3 inches with 3+ across the southeastern part of the CWA.
No major changes in the temperatures and have therefore kept the
rain/sleet mix across the higher elevations of north GA Friday
night through Sunday and the rain/sleet/snow mix across most of
the CWA Sunday night. At this time still too early to put in
snow/sleet amounts but wouldn't be surprised to see some sleet
accumulation on the grassy surfaces in the higher elevations this
weekend.

 

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23 minutes ago, Brooke said:

My parents will be going to Biltmore this weekend, I should tag along since Marietta will probably get nothing. :classic_blink:

Yes, it would be BEAUTIFUL to see the Biltmore in the snow. Plus, if you've never seen it decorated for Christmas, you are really missing something. 

 

2dfd9cf79eb6913c4419757a23b897ff.jpg

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1 minute ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

kept the rain/sleet mix across the higher elevations of north GA Friday
night through Sunday and the rain/sleet/snow mix across most of
the CWA Sunday night.

It may be wish-casting, but for some reason I having this feeling that folks across the northern tier of GA might have a minor surprise come Monday morning with ZA and a little white stuff.

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Just now, Jay said:

It may be wish-casting, but for some reason I having this feeling that folks across the northern tier of GA might have a minor surprise come Monday morning with ZA and a little white stuff.

I think they will as well, I just want to see more consistency in the modeling. I'm impatient! 🙂

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6 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

NWS Atlanta - Wednesday evening

 

Seems like pretty weak verbiage for us up north.

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Sorry I'm new lol. Trying to figure out how to reply to specific post. 

Edited by SlicNic13
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5 minutes ago, SlicNic13 said:

Sorry I'm new lol. Try to figure out how to reply to specific post. 

S'all good. YMMV, but it seems to me that Peachtree is generally cautious about their verbiage until fairly close in to the event unless there is overwhelming evidence that forces their hand.

6 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

I think they will as well, I just want to see more consistency in the modeling. I'm impatient! 🙂

Believe me, I'm right there with you! It feels like I am in a funky weird area in extreme WNW-ish Ga that the CAD seems to regularly reach out and touch in events like this, but for whatever reason doesn't show up in modeling.

Truth be told, I like how the FV3 was looking in terms of geographical coverage, even though it was way overdone in terms of amounts.

Edited by Jay
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Just need any winter weather to continue to hold off until Sunday for the Athens-Atlanta corridor. 😬  After Saturday night, bring it on. 😁

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In my experience Peachtree is often more cautious than GSP, and sometimes to a fault. In a lot of events you'll see Peachtree go winter weather advisories in the usual areas and then be forced to expand the advisories and upgrade areas to warnings after an event has already began.

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namconus_ref_frzn_seus_52.pngThis is the last frame on tonights NAM. Snow/Sleet in the far NE and then lots of heavy crippling ice further south. In places like Athens it has already shown probably close to an inch of liquid with temps below freezing.

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