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NorthGeorgiaWX

Potential Winter Threat - December 6-11

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Just now, WILL said:

Gwinnett county looks like a mixture 

I think we'll see stuff, but the ground will be too warm for much of it to accumulate. 

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I had to go look at the NWS forecast looks like a higher chance of rain/snow showers 

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In all seriousness, who would've thought we'd get this early of a system to track... makes me wonder what more does winter have to offer? :classic_love:

Edited by Athens
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Here is a look at the WPC low pressure forecast points that also show the locations for the various ensemble members at a given point in time. We need that low to stay low... 😉 It needs to ride along the coast or even a little lower. You read about "more suppressed", that's what we're talking about. 

lowtrack_ensembles-06.thumb.gif.cd85b949eab728917b8e663a214c5423.gif

 

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Special Weather Statement issued December 6 at 5:31AM EST by NWS Peachtree City GA

Alert

 

...Heavy rainfall is also expected across north and central
Georgia...

Confidence is increasing in the potential for a winter storm
for the far northeast portions of the forecast area. The period of
most concern is Saturday night into Sunday for the mountains and
far northeast counties. At this time, the counties most likely
affected are Eastern Fannin, Eastern Dawson, Union, Lumpkin,
Towns, White, Hall and Banks. It is way too early to mention
amounts but this is the area with the greatest chances for
accumulations.

The latest forecast storm total rainfall amounts have increased
over the area from previous with this next system. We are now
expecting a widespread area of 2.5 to 3 inch totals from Columbus
to Rome and points east. Given recent systems across the area and
the time of year, we can expect at least some isolated flooding
issues.

Residents of north and central Georgia should keep up with all
forecast updates as things are likely to change.

Instructions

 

 

Target Area

 

Monroe; Walton; Dawson; Houston; Fayette; Dade; Paulding; Twiggs; Forsyth; Wheeler; Oglethorpe; Webster; Union; Taylor; Bleckley; Gilmer; Rockdale; Montgomery; Lumpkin; Wilkinson; Hall; Clayton; Jones; Talbot; Catoosa; Laurens; Crawford; Toombs; Cobb; Hancock; Chattahoochee; De Kalb; Spalding; Baldwin; Henry; North Fulton; Warren; Walker; Bibb; Madison; Greene; Washington; White; Muscogee; South Fulton; Cherokee; Towns; Wilkes; Harris; Stewart; Marion; Barrow; Crisp; Butts; Upson; Dodge; Treutlen; Taliaferro; Troup; Douglas; Jasper; Chattooga; Pike; Schley; Morgan; Putnam; Whitfield; Heard; Bartow; Jefferson; Gwinnett; Pulaski; Wilcox; Meriwether; Carroll; Banks; Gordon; Macon; Sumter; Oconee; Floyd; Johnson; Coweta; Fannin; Glascock; Lamar; Haralson; Jackson; Clarke; Dooly; Murray; Telfair; Newton; Peach; Emanuel; Pickens; Polk

 

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I heard Lumpkin county! Since this hits on a weekend, looks like I should gear up for some storm chasing. 

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Here's what I'm thinking right now.... and this is simply me speculating on what I'm seeing and hearing.

  • The models are trending further south and colder.
  • Cold air damming (CAD) is always poorly modeled and generally underestimated.
  • Massive amounts of moisture (2-3") are to be expected.

Those people in the CAD favored areas should be on alert for potential changes in your forecast. That includes areas as far southwest as the north and east Atlanta suburbs. The positioning and strength of the surface high to the north and the location and strength of the low to the south will determine where the winter weather falls, and only a few degrees one way or the other will make a tremendous difference in the outcome. 

As you head into the NE corner of the state, things change rapidly and the transition from freezing rain to sleet to snow is sharp, and the NWS is calling for almost a foot of snow in parts of Rabun County (Clayton) and western NC will be hammered.

This is an evolving and challenging forecast, and specific details will not come until the event is upon us. Please pay attention to future forecast for any changes, and stay tuned here for all the latest weather information. 

Now back to your regularly scheduled broadcast... 😃

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Just have a feeling Gwinnett county gets something more than rain 

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I am 25 mins from Clayton.... bring on the snow!!! I’ll get prepared tmw if it’s looking like some good winter weather! 

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4 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Here's what I'm thinking right now.... and this is simply me speculating on what I'm seeing and hearing.

  • The models are trending further south and colder.
  • Cold air damming (CAD) is always poorly modeled and generally underestimated.
  • Massive amounts of moisture (2-3") are to be expected.

Those people in the CAD favored areas should be on alert for potential changes in your forecast. That includes areas as far southwest as the north and east Atlanta suburbs. The positioning and strength of the surface high to the north and the location and strength of the low to the south will determine where the winter weather falls, and only a few degrees one way or the other will make a tremendous difference in the outcome. 

As you head into the NE corner of the state, things change rapidly and the transition from freezing rain to sleet to snow is sharp, and the NWS is calling for almost a foot of snow in parts of Rabun County (Clayton) and western NC will be hammered.

This is an evolving and challenging forecast, and specific details will not come until the event is upon us. Please pay attention to future forecast for any changes, and stay tuned here for all the latest weather information. 

Now back to your regularly scheduled broadcast... 😃

I definitely agree. My gut is telling me this will be a significant event for a good portion of North Georgia. Especially after what happened last year.  

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Trends on the NAM certainly aren’t as encouraging as before for snow up here in Rabun, much more mid level warming. Hope these trends don’t hold or could be a sleet and ice fest.

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fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_35.png

Not trying to jump ahead, I know, one storm at a time but has anyone else noticed this on the next system? It has also progressively started showing a chance for some wintry conditions possible for N. GA. 

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1059 AM EST THU DEC 6 2018


.UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK, WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE WINTER PRECIP POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
SOME ADJUSTMENTS EXPECTED WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE
FOLLOWING EVALUATION OF LATEST MODEL RUNS. AT THIS TIME, LOOKS
LIKE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR NIGHTIME PERIODS
OVER THE WEEKEND.
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