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NorthGeorgiaWX

Potential Winter Threat - December 6-11

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1 hour ago, SlicNic13 said:

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_35.png

Not trying to jump ahead, I know, one storm at a time but has anyone else noticed this on the next system? It has also progressively started showing a chance for some wintry conditions possible for N. GA. 

Looks like a backside event, those typically don’t work out case the backside drys out too fast with that kind of cold behind it. But can put a little bit out in NWGA and flurries for most. But that’s way too far ahead for even a little bit of speculation.

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This current storm will probably rob that later one of energy.  We have seen that happen too.

 

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I’m really confused why Habersham County isn’t the latest weather service post on Facebook? Rabun county isn’t on it either 

it is the weather service for peach tree city 

 

Edited by Selena

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2 hours ago, Dawg said:

When should the short range models be used for this threat?

Beginning today. Then, once we get to less than 24 hours, the HRRR can be used.

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6 minutes ago, Selena said:

I’m really confused why Habersham County isn’t the latest weather service post on Facebook? Rabun county isn’t on it either 

it is the weather service for peach tree city 

 

No, us counties along the SC border are covered by NWS in Greenville-Spartunburg. So Rabun, Habersham, Stephens, etc.

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9 minutes ago, Selena said:

I’m really confused why Habersham County isn’t the latest weather service post on Facebook? Rabun county isn’t on it either 

it is the weather service for peach tree city 

 

Habersham and Rabun are in the Greenville/Spartanburg forecast area NOT Peachtree City. That applies to Rabun, Habersham, Stephens, Franklin, Hart, and Elbert counties in GA. Hope that helps. 

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Wanted to show you something. This is the 12z GFS. 

In the static image below, I've circled two areas of interest.  The yellow southern circle is our storm. The red circle is another piece of energy diving down from the Rockies in the split flow. 

Snap34528-06.thumb.jpg.8379a009b6952ca3a9e552114ca333ed.jpg

 

The animated GIF below shows how close those two pieces are to phasing, or merging together. Timing is critical and normally the timing fails us. It will fail to phase this time as well, but notice what happens as it just catches the tail-end of the leading energy as it's pulling away. This is why the GFS is bringing ANOTHER batch of possible snow late Monday/Tuesday, but this time we'll be colder. 

The other thing to note... just LOOK at all of the chances rolling across the country over the next several weeks and especially toward the end of the month.  I can't wait... ❄️

876388480_GFSPressureLevUnitedStates500hPaRelVorticity-06.gif.4f1b92f0849835a96f58ec5bfa87c5a3.gif

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5 minutes ago, stevepolychronopolous said:

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Goodness they need to adjust that color scale a bit, very hard to discern between the bottom 3 ptypes on the left and middle panel.

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1 minute ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Goodness they need to adjust that color scale a bit, very hard to discern between the bottom 3 ptypes on the left and middle panel.

Agreed. If you didn't read the text underneath, you'd think it's snow the whole time.

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9 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

WPC Forecast for the 24 period leading up to 7 am Sunday. 

Probability of >=1" Snow

Snap34532-06.thumb.jpg.bd2e4ac4208fc429d0ce6e47bb14a58e.jpg

 

Probability of >=0.10" of Freezing Rain

Snap34531-06.thumb.jpg.8c9c99816a43fc72c51c68c32bc275c4.jpg

Really good look considering how much longer there's still to go especially if that ULL can pop nice.

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1 minute ago, WILL said:

What do you think for Gwinnett County? Looks like ice

We're still in the freezing rain sector, at least until late Monday.

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1 minute ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Really good look considering how much longer there's still to go especially if that ULL can pop nice.

I think things are trending our way.

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It appears that here in the Athens area we may be in for a mixed bag of everything this storm has....

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