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NorthGeorgiaWX

Potential Winter Threat - December 6-11

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I couldn't tell from that image what the level was, but it looks like 850 mb

The GFS is showing some 40 mph gust at 10 meters, and of course much high winds at 850 mb. 

Notice in this firs image (surface gust) the direction of the wind flow

1043897842_GFS50-STATESUSAundefinedundefined66-06.thumb.png.643e6ee7aec88962ebed98dbbe71d298.png

 

And notice in this image how it's from a southerly direction versus the northeast. 850 mb is about 5000 feet (and actually a little less)

1485479399_GFS50-STATESUSAGeorgia850hPaWind66-06.thumb.png.a6aad3c9fbd6c9370ca2c650f0439bec.png

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3 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

I couldn't tell from that image what the level was, but it looks like 850 mb

The GFS is showing some 40 mph gust at 10 meters, and of course much high winds at 850 mb. 

Notice in this firs image (surface gust) the direction of the wind flow

1043897842_GFS50-STATESUSAundefinedundefined66-06.thumb.png.643e6ee7aec88962ebed98dbbe71d298.png

 

And notice in this image how it's from a southerly direction versus the northeast. 850 mb is about 5000 feet (and actually a little less)

1485479399_GFS50-STATESUSAGeorgia850hPaWind66-06.thumb.png.a6aad3c9fbd6c9370ca2c650f0439bec.png

I am not sure what to think about this for here in Blairsville, Ga

 

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1 minute ago, Tammymason said:

I am not sure what to think about this for here in Blairsville, Ga

 

You may see some gusty winds, and with a lot of rain falling, it will make the soil loose and a better chance for trees to come down. The winds aren't terrible and you don't live at 5000 feet, so it should be fine.

 

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1 minute ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

You may see some gusty winds, and with a lot of rain falling, it will make the soil loose and a better chance for trees to come down. The winds aren't terrible and you don't live at 5000 feet, so it should be fine.

 

Remember i said i don't like snow😐

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I just noticed NWS Peachtree has removed their special weather statement for the area. Hopefully we'll be getting an update statement soon?

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3 minutes ago, rwarren5 said:

I just noticed NWS Peachtree has removed their special weather statement for the area. Hopefully we'll be getting an update statement soon?

No mention of it yet. Some things require a certain advance time period. I have a whole page with all of the watch/warning criteria here:

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_watch_warning_criteria.php

They may issue a Winter Weather Advisory

Snap34542.thumb.jpg.cf0f2f2897e39afce90235b0953a3c39.jpg

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NWS Atlanta - 2:33 pm update

Quote

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...
Rain returns to the area Friday, with a challenging forecast through
the next five days. Increasing mid and upper level moisture is
expected overnight tonight, and have opted to start rain chances 6-8
hours sooner than previously advertised given the tendency for high-
based precip to begin earlier than the model timing consensus.


At this point, precip Friday should be all rain given temperatures
will comfortably be above freezing across north and central Georgia.
Into the overnight period, temperatures in north Georgia will drop
into the mid 30s, with some isolated areas of 32. As a result, can
not rule out light rain/sleet mix over the higher elevations. No
accumulations are anticipated at this time.


Categorical pops remain in the grids into Saturday morning, with a
wet Saturday in store. See extended period discussion below.

Quote

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...
The above storm system gets a little more complicated Saturday
into Monday night. Most of the precip Saturday will be rain with
rain becoming heavy at times Saturday afternoon and into Saturday
night. As the wedge strengthens Saturday night, colder air will
move into northeast GA turning the rain into snow on the mountain
ridges and freezing rain across parts of northeast GA.

Temperatures will bottom out right around the freezing mark across
northeast GA with mid 30s across the rest of north GA. While rain
is expected outside of northeast GA, there could be a little sleet
mixed in with the rain across north GA. The heaviest rain will
move off to our east Sunday but the cold air will stay in place
keeping a mix of r/zr over northeast GA, snow in the mountain and
rain elsewhere. As the surface low pulls to our east, colder air
will spread across the CWA Sunday night and into Monday and Monday
night. This will turn all precip into a rain/snow mix, although

amounts will be light.

Skies clear Tuesday, but the relief will be
short lived as another system moves into the southeast US by mid
to late week.


An SPS will be issued for the winter precip potential and the
heavy rain potential.

 

 

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10 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

No mention of it yet. Some things require a certain advance time period. I have a whole page with all of the watch/warning criteria here:

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_watch_warning_criteria.php

They may issue a Winter Weather Advisory

Snap34542.thumb.jpg.cf0f2f2897e39afce90235b0953a3c39.jpg

Thank you for the clarification! I just read the most recent update. I'm anxious as it sounds like I'm on the hit or miss line in SE Lumpkin. 

Edited by rwarren5

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HEAVY SNOW WARNING
A Heavy Snow Warning will be issued if 6 or more inches of snow is expected in a 12 hour period. (Wind chill and Frost/Freeze products are found in the non-precipitation section).
 
one can only hope.......🙄

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20 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

NWS Atlanta - 2:33 pm update

 

Ok now I'm confused! The earlier NWS statement says we are getting sleet, snow and freezing rain as far South as Athens. What gives!?!.They have now changed it?

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15 minutes ago, ShelleBelle said:

Ok now I'm confused! The earlier NWS statement says we are getting sleet, snow and freezing rain as far South as Athens. What gives!?!.They have now changed it?

Nothing has changed. The wording doesn't always reflect the maps etc. 🙂 We're on track!

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Here we go!

Quote

Sullivan-Johnson-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-
Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-Southeast Carter-
Sevier Smoky Mountains-Lee-Wise-Scott-Russell-Washington-
Including the cities of Kingsport, Bristol, Mountain City, Cosby,
Cedar Creek, Johnson City, Erwin, Elizabethton, Roan Mountain,
Gatlinburg, Jonesville, Wise, Norton, Gate City, Lebanon,
and Abingdon
324 PM EST Thu Dec 6 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 12
  inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of East Tennessee and Southwest Virginia.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening through Monday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to
  impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.

 

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Quote

Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Yadkin-Grayson-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Dobson, Boone,
Wilkesboro, Yadkinville, Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale,
and Volney
331 PM EST Thu Dec 6 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow amounts 8 to 16 inches
  possible, with locally higher amounts possible.

* WHERE...North Carolina mountains and foothills into Grayson
  County Virginia.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening through Monday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to
  impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning
  commute. Power outages may occur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest
forecasts.
 

 

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10 hours ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

The NWS likes to use probability maps that show you the percentage chance of receiving a given quantity of precip. Not great nu,bers right now.

So here  is what may be expected. This first image shows the chance of get 1" of snow

snowProbGE01.thumb.png.33e12b3fdaa19cdf0b9d9b7ab4d8edd3.png

 

This last image is worst case max. Not gonna see this.

SnowAmt90Prcntl-06.thumb.png.c34c480d3454f936a98205741013a710.png

Confidence in snowfall is increasing! Current vs 10 hours ago. image.thumb.png.2c8ee86747cc9eb3e7e031532c462cdf.pngimage.thumb.png.41dc3c5efe987b9b0fb84ac0163a3b76.png

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18z NAM brings borderline ice storm all the way to Gwinnett. That would get nasty quick and potentially throw a dusting of snow on top at the end. Would be beautiful though!

F2B1F651-59FB-49B3-ADB8-9C583FFC050A.png

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Just now, Shannon said:

18z NAM brings borderline ice storm all the way to Gwinnett. That would get nasty quick and potentially throw a dusting of snow on top at the end. Would be beautiful though!

F2B1F651-59FB-49B3-ADB8-9C583FFC050A.png

We are definitely going to see a mixed bag here. It's going to be a mess to forecast.

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