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NorthGeorgiaWX

Potential Winter Threat - December 6-11

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1 minute ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

We are definitely going to see a mixed bag here. It's going to be a mess to forecast.

Yeah going to be border line all Saturday night through Monday. Guess it also depends on the amount of low level dry air the wedge can throw down here to us for the freezing rain scenario.

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Glad to see this board up Steve. I did not read all 18 pages on this thread but one thing that I feel like keeps getting over looked. You’ve lived here and followed models longer than I have. 

Models do NOT handle the low level cold air well at all. Add in evaporational cooling and a 34 and rain forecast goes to 31 and rain in a hurry.  I believe the EURO is seeing this the best of all the global models and I keep eyeballing the NAM. I’m not ready to buy everything he’s selling but the EURO and NAM have not backed off the throttle in their thinking. 

I am really glad you’ve got this going! 

Thx. Mark

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2 minutes ago, Shannon said:

18z NAM brings borderline ice storm all the way to Gwinnett. That would get nasty quick and potentially throw a dusting of snow on top at the end. Would be beautiful though!

F2B1F651-59FB-49B3-ADB8-9C583FFC050A.png

Whew...Tree damage would be catastrophic up here with over 1.5 inches of ZR and gusty winds

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Just curios, what was underestimation in the snow storm we got  December 8th 2017?  you know the one that was going to be a dusting of snow mixed of rain but then turned out to be 7 inches to a foot of straight snow in some areas.

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Just now, DDD_GON_WEATHER said:

Glad to see this board up Steve. I did not read all 18 pages on this thread but one thing that I feel like keeps getting over looked. You’ve lived here and followed models longer than I have. 

Models do NOT handle the low level cold air well at all. Add in evaporational cooling and a 34 and rain forecast goes to 31 and rain in a hurry.  I believe the EURO is seeing this the best of all the global models and I keep eyeballing the NAM. I’m not ready to buy everything he’s selling but the EURO and NAM have not backed off the throttle in their thinking. 

I am really glad you’ve got this going! 

Thx. Mark

Thanks Mark! And welcome! 

Yea, the models aren't really a lot of help right now.

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16 minutes ago, Ham360 said:

Just curios, what was underestimation in the snow storm we got  December 8th 2017?  you know the one that was going to be a dusting of snow mixed of rain but then turned out to be 7 inches to a foot of straight snow in some areas.

I'll go back and look

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Quote

Special Weather Statement issued December 6 at 3:33PM EST by NWS Peachtree City GA

Alert

 

A complex storm system will affect north and central Georgia
beginning late Friday, continuing through the weekend and
potentially into early next week. Confidence is increasing that
a period of wintry precipitation, mainly in the form of freezing
rain, will occur late Saturday night through Sunday across
northeast Georgia. The potential for snow and sleet has shifted
more into North and South Carolina.


At this time, the best chance of seeing measurable ice
accumulations will be north and east of a Homer to Gainesville to
Dawsonville line. The rain-freezing rain line could move as far
south and west as Canton to Cumming to Lawrenceville to Winder to
Athens, where a mix of rain and freezing rain is possible.
However, confidence in this happening is a bit lower at this time,
and the forecast is still subject to change based on the event
being more than 48 hours out.


Outside of the winter weather threat, across much of middle
Georgia, heavy rain Saturday into early Sunday could result in up
to 3 inches of rainfall. This will likely elevate the threat for
localized flooding or flash flooding.

Sunday night into Monday, wrap-around moisture in the colder air
behind the system could result in some light snow showers across
portions of north and central Georgia. However, being 3 to 4 days
out, confidence is low at this time.


Stay tuned to the very latest forecasts from your local media
outlets and National Weather Service office as this complex storm
system evolves over the next couple days. If you live or are
traveling across the higher elevations of northeast Georgia
especially, prepare now for winter weather conditions and
hazardous driving conditions late this weekend into early next
week.

Instructions

 

 

Target Area

 

Monroe; Walton; Dawson; Houston; Fayette; Dade; Paulding; Twiggs; Forsyth; Wheeler; Oglethorpe; Webster; Union; Taylor; Bleckley; Gilmer; Rockdale; Montgomery; Lumpkin; Wilkinson; Hall; Clayton; Jones; Talbot; Catoosa; Laurens; Crawford; Toombs; Cobb; Hancock; Chattahoochee; De Kalb; Spalding; Baldwin; Henry; North Fulton; Warren; Walker; Bibb; Madison; Greene; Washington; White; Muscogee; South Fulton; Cherokee; Towns; Wilkes; Harris; Stewart; Marion; Barrow; Crisp; Butts; Upson; Dodge; Treutlen; Taliaferro; Troup; Douglas; Jasper; Chattooga; Pike; Schley; Morgan; Putnam; Whitfield; Heard; Bartow; Jefferson; Gwinnett; Pulaski; Wilcox; Meriwether; Carroll; Banks; Gordon; Macon; Sumter; Oconee; Floyd; Johnson; Coweta; Fannin; Glascock; Lamar; Haralson; Jackson; Clarke; Dooly; Murray; Telfair; Newton; Peach; Emanuel; Pickens; Polk

 

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9 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Sunday night into Monday, wrap-around moisture in the colder air
behind the system could result in some light snow showers across
portions of north and central Georgia. However, being 3 to 4 days
out, confidence is low at this time.

Fingers crossed on this!!

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I believe Murphy’s NWS comes out of Knoxville. We still are showing Rain through Tuesday. So are we going to miss out? 

 

Edited by Cay
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11 minutes ago, Cay said:

I believe Murphy’s NWS comes out of Knoxville. We still are showing Rain through Tuesday. So are we going to miss out? 

 

Looks like in Murphy gets the shaft from Morristown. They are small and even their web page doesn't have much. They occasionally add stuff to their AFD but it's usually aviation stuff. 

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Steve, you have any thoughts about the FV3 as a model in general?

Edited by Jay
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So what should I be following? The no rain but maybe ice or follow Blairsville and Franklin ?  We are prepared, but just wondering. Thanks for your help. 

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I've been keeping quiet but I believe that if the wedge effect becomes more strongly entrenched in the northeast ga area the typical places; i.e. athens & Gainesville, see a potentially dangerous ice storm... followed by some snow at the end of it all. And also if the models are realizing the intensity of winds correctly than this storm will be even worse with falling trees everywhere.

But all in all definitely better to presume the worse and hope for the best

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A lot of questions about the NWS forecast and all of the changes. That's one reason they hate to make any winter forecast... getting the message out about changes, getting maps updated, etc, etc, it makes for a mess in communicating to the public. Here is my advice...

Throw everything you've seen so far out. None of it matters now.... and we need to start fresh. 

The low that will be the storm is coming onshore and will quickly reform over Texas. Here's a 500 mb vorticity map of the storm as it reaches the coast.

gfs_z500_vort_noram_1-06.thumb.png.15ad0776939737a226d95c7c3094db63.png

 

The next sequence shows the two pieces of energy before a partial phase occurs in the following image

Snap34547-06.thumb.jpg.d10d38215e026686d20396e0cc1895a5.jpg

gfs_z500_vort_noram_19-06.thumb.png.63ba2a05abec1d20487d72a492fae9dc.png

Note that you don't see a big cold high pressure to the north, but instead lots of waves flying around everywhere. Without a big cold high pressure to the north to supply cold air, this will probably be a cold rain for many people. Cold air, or lack of, is our main issue with this system. Other than the lack of cold air, in the heart of winter, this would be a great setup. Considering the amount of liquid precipitation that is going to fall  and with temperatures 2-5 degrees colder, this would be an epic event.  

Here's the WPC forecast map of the track and strength of the low. BTW, this image is located on the "Home" page here on this site.

lowtrack_ensembles-06-1.thumb.gif.f117c503f96ebe8108569869c0800980.gif

Let's wait until tomorrow afternoon before we decide what's going to happen here. Lots of pieces coming together and the low hasn't even formed over Texas yet, I suspect we are going to see more changes before this is over. 

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28 minutes ago, Cay said:

So what should I be following? The no rain but maybe ice or follow Blairsville and Franklin ?  We are prepared, but just wondering. Thanks for your help. 

Yes, I would follow whatever is going to happen in those two locations. This is not going to be exact anyway, with cold pockets will some snow will fall, change to sleet, freezing rain... just all over the place.

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I’m not liking the looks of things. I don’t want any ice at all. A few models show significant ice while there are still a few that show snow in the far northeast Georgia mountains, so I’m hoping for the better of the two. Tomorrow will really tell a lot, and I’m interested to see how it all plays out.

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Steve, trying to pass a little bit of time as the NAM rolls out...  What do we "want" to see to have a good CAD / ZR event in the NE parts of the Metro?  The areas that are on the maybe side of life.  Mine and your areas.  LOL

I know I am looking for the LPS to be slightly further south, SLOWER movement out of the LPS and that HPS further south.  Anything you would add or take away from that?

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12 minutes ago, DDD_GON_WEATHER said:

Steve, trying to pass a little bit of time as the NAM rolls out...  What do we "want" to see to have a good CAD / ZR event in the NE parts of the Metro?  The areas that are on the maybe side of life.  Mine and your areas.  LOL

I know I am looking for the LPS to be slightly further south, SLOWER movement out of the LPS and that HPS further south.  Anything you would add or take away from that?

Everything you just said is what we need. I’m in Buford so what you said is our lifeline for our hopes of winter weather with the exception of the wrap around potentially.

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