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NorthGeorgiaWX

Potential Winter Threat - December 6-11

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1 hour ago, Selena said:

Are we still looking good for clarkesville?? Snow or ice event? Either way I will be prepared!!

A little of both

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1 hour ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

So for up here in Rabun, from lunch time yesterday all the way to now the 6z runs this morning I’ve sit and watched the ensemble mean snowfall on bothe the GEFS and EPS go up significantly across the county. So how likely is it that at least a decent portion of this event is all or at least mostly snow? Of note this morning also, the WPC said that they think warm air advection is being overdone in modeling because the weaker system in suppressive environment flow should be primarily east to west.

I believe you'll have a decent amount of snow where you are at.

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14 minutes ago, Dahlonegawinter said:

Steve do you think Dahlonega sees any appreciable ZR?

I believe that you will see some, how much is the million dollar question for many areas now. It's kind of a wait and see until the time get closer. 

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3 hours ago, Preston said:

You can tell there are still definitely some uncertainties in the NE GA mountains particularly Rabun County. Anywhere from nothing to 20 inches in Sky Valley leaves a lot up in the air to say the least. So you’re telling me there is a chance still for 18”? 😂

798C11EB-23D4-4AF1-AFCC-71A24A5330F8.png

I live in Rabun and used to do Facebook live weather reports for the Tribune up here. Sky Valley is its own beast. It is 3,300 feet above sea level, and that is the entire area is at that or above, and generally is around 7-10 degrees colder year round. I am at 2400 in rabun gap and we will see nothing sometimes and they will get several inches. They have a very unique ecosystem in terms of weather up there.

The problem for most of us in Rabun, with this storm, is that in between snow falling, we will get a cold rain, which doesn't make for nice pictures nor does it make for anything pretty. That said, I am starting to think we will see very little on the ground. But hey, it is still early december.

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15 minutes ago, kshields8426 said:

I live in Rabun and used to do Facebook live weather reports for the Tribune up here. Sky Valley is its own beast. It is 3,300 feet above sea level, and that is the entire area is at that or above, and generally is around 7-10 degrees colder year round. I am at 2400 in rabun gap and we will see nothing sometimes and they will get several inches. They have a very unique ecosystem in terms of weather up there.

The problem for most of us in Rabun, with this storm, is that in between snow falling, we will get a cold rain, which doesn't make for nice pictures nor does it make for anything pretty. That said, I am starting to think we will see very little on the ground. But hey, it is still early december.

Very few models show us going back to cold rain once things set in heavy Saturday night. For the most part flipping between different wintry precious at times. And right now the trend is our friend on the short term models, the globals, and their ensembles.

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Here's a look at the upper air maps. You can see the upper level features are back over Mexico and on a much more southerly track than anticipated a day or two ago. 

From the top down. Altitudes vary depending on pressures.

300 mb - 30,065 ft | 9,166 m

300mb-07.thumb.jpg.551ed8c814289546f65c8ffee1f162ef.jpg

 

500 mb - 18,289 ft | 5,576 m

500mb-07.thumb.jpg.b1e5dbb689b39a577ad5d7d83d07095a.jpg

 

700 mb - 9,882 ft | 3,013 m

700mb-07.thumb.jpg.f36f6d1ba61b9f93ad11acca0a57c618.jpg

 

850 mb - 4,781 ft | 1,458 m

850mb-07.thumb.jpg.1d1220635cfff317a72213a1b088228a.jpg

 

Surface low 6 hours from now - This is much lower than what we were looking at the other day. Potential implications if this verifies.

surface_6hr-07.thumb.jpg.462b776ae013b533e2be6195484199c1.jpg

 

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Here's a look at the upper air maps. You can see the upper level features are back over Mexico and on a much more southerly track than anticipated a day or two ago. 

From the top down. Altitudes vary depending on pressures.

300 mb - 30,065 ft | 9,166 m

300mb-07.thumb.jpg.551ed8c814289546f65c8ffee1f162ef.jpg

 

500 mb - 18,289 ft | 5,576 m

500mb-07.thumb.jpg.b1e5dbb689b39a577ad5d7d83d07095a.jpg

 

700 mb - 9,882 ft | 3,013 m

700mb-07.thumb.jpg.f36f6d1ba61b9f93ad11acca0a57c618.jpg

 

850 mb - 4,781 ft | 1,458 m

850mb-07.thumb.jpg.1d1220635cfff317a72213a1b088228a.jpg

 

Surface low 6 hours from now - This is much lower than what we were looking at the other day. Potential implications if this verifies.

surface_6hr-07.thumb.jpg.462b776ae013b533e2be6195484199c1.jpg

 

 

 

 

What kind of implications? 

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I'm in SE Paulding county, in the corner where Paulding, Cobb, and Douglas come together.  We're getting a little bit of light rain right now mixed with sleet.  You can hear the tinkle of it on the leaves.  I was watching the tiny bits of ice land and then melt on my sleeve.

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A lower track takes us further away from the warm moist air, possibly allowing colder air to filter in. A few degrees is all we need. 

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2 minutes ago, inlovewithwords said:

I'm in SE Paulding county, in the corner where Paulding, Cobb, and Douglas come together.  We're getting a little bit of light rain right now mixed with sleet.  You can hear the tinkle of it on the leaves.  I was watching the tiny bits of ice land and then melt on my sleeve.

Awesome!

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2 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

A lower track takes us further away from the warm moist air, possibly allowing colder air to filter in. A few degrees is all we need. 

That's what I thought, and that's what I wanted to hear. Here in Fannin, we're so close to getting in on the action! 

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I'm spending waaay too much time on this feed lol Scouring the internet for information and updates. 

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30 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Here's a look at the upper air maps. You can see the upper level features are back over Mexico and on a much more southerly track than anticipated a day or two ago. 

From the top down. Altitudes vary depending on pressures.

300 mb - 30,065 ft | 9,166 m

300mb-07.thumb.jpg.551ed8c814289546f65c8ffee1f162ef.jpg

 

500 mb - 18,289 ft | 5,576 m

500mb-07.thumb.jpg.b1e5dbb689b39a577ad5d7d83d07095a.jpg

 

700 mb - 9,882 ft | 3,013 m

700mb-07.thumb.jpg.f36f6d1ba61b9f93ad11acca0a57c618.jpg

 

850 mb - 4,781 ft | 1,458 m

850mb-07.thumb.jpg.1d1220635cfff317a72213a1b088228a.jpg

 

Surface low 6 hours from now - This is much lower than what we were looking at the other day. Potential implications if this verifies.

surface_6hr-07.thumb.jpg.462b776ae013b533e2be6195484199c1.jpg

 

 

 

 

Typically I would agree that this would be better and it usually is for us. However, it appears the high pressure just isn’t in the right place at the right time. It appears that it takes to long to get in the prime spot for it to rush that colder air down the east side of the mountains. Maybe we can get a miracle though!

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1 hour ago, kshields8426 said:

I live in Rabun and used to do Facebook live weather reports for the Tribune up here. Sky Valley is its own beast. It is 3,300 feet above sea level, and that is the entire area is at that or above, and generally is around 7-10 degrees colder year round. I am at 2400 in rabun gap and we will see nothing sometimes and they will get several inches. They have a very unique ecosystem in terms of weather up there.

The problem for most of us in Rabun, with this storm, is that in between snow falling, we will get a cold rain, which doesn't make for nice pictures nor does it make for anything pretty. That said, I am starting to think we will see very little on the ground. But hey, it is still early december.

 

We shall see, I live in Sky Valley and can definitely attest to the fact it has a different climate than even surrounding locations very close by just at lower elevations. It makes for some unique weather (for GA standards) to follow. 

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