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Potential Winter Threat - December 6-11

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Bread/milk/eggs is an amateur play - useless in a power outage, spoils fast, and will either freeze or get nasty if you try to store it outside (and its cold enough).  Stick to stuff you can smoke slow on a charcoal grill (ribs, boston butt), boil fast on propane (oatmeal), has spoilage resilience (yogurt), or is alcoholic.

Any of y'all are in town in Atlanta, I've got a pot of baked beans cooking now, a brisket that's going to smoke all day Saturday, and a whole lot of beer.  Granted we will probably only see rain, but considering a standard week down here is three police chases that crash into power poles and a 36 hour boil water advisory, its good to be ready anyway.

 

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Actually new NAM is colder with more precip around. Don’t blame NWS at all for Winter Storm Watch. Getting interesting folks!!

Edited by Shannon
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20 minutes ago, Shannon said:

Actually new NAM is colder with more precip around. Don’t blame NWS at all for Winter Storm Watch. Getting interesting folks!!

Can you share some maps?  I’m in flowery branch 

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Just now, traildawg said:

Hope this doesn’t happen. I’m sure things will change given the uncertainty of this storm. 

B4F511A1-952E-4EA6-901E-1B6D250F367B.jpeg

Ya'll can have that ice, just scoot some snow over to north Cobb county. :classic_cool:

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11 minutes ago, traildawg said:

Hope this doesn’t happen. I’m sure things will change given the uncertainty of this storm. 

B4F511A1-952E-4EA6-901E-1B6D250F367B.jpeg

 

22 minutes ago, traildawg said:

Can you share some maps?  I’m in flowery branch 

Map you shared looks fairly accurate 

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Check out the disco from the FFC as to why the watch was expanded.  One of the best short disco pieces I have seen them write up.

 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
945 PM EST Fri Dec 7 2018


.UPDATE...

Main adjustment this evening was to expand the Winter Storm Watch
farther west and south given growing concern for some freezing
rain accumulations in a strengthening wedge Saturday night into
Sunday. This was based on some higher resolution guidance
advecting the subfreezing low level temps/wetbulbs farther into
the area, including the local WRF which has resolved past wedges
quite well. There is still much uncertainty with temps, timing,
and amount of moisture but the fact that models which typically
perform better with the local terrain and smaller scale
microphysical processes are bringing in some freezing rain mainly
north of the I-20 corridor and impinging into the far northeast
Atlanta metro was justification enough to expand. Also even higher
snow totals could be realized in the NE mountains. The watch area
could be upgraded to either a Warning or Advisory in future
updates so please watch for any changes. Previous discussion
follows.
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1 minute ago, DDD_GON_WEATHER said:

Check out the disco from the FFC as to why the watch was expanded.  One of the best short disco pieces I have seen them write up.

 


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
945 PM EST Fri Dec 7 2018


.UPDATE...

Main adjustment this evening was to expand the Winter Storm Watch
farther west and south given growing concern for some freezing
rain accumulations in a strengthening wedge Saturday night into
Sunday. This was based on some higher resolution guidance
advecting the subfreezing low level temps/wetbulbs farther into
the area, including the local WRF which has resolved past wedges
quite well. There is still much uncertainty with temps, timing,
and amount of moisture but the fact that models which typically
perform better with the local terrain and smaller scale
microphysical processes are bringing in some freezing rain mainly
north of the I-20 corridor and impinging into the far northeast
Atlanta metro was justification enough to expand. Also even higher
snow totals could be realized in the NE mountains. The watch area
could be upgraded to either a Warning or Advisory in future
updates so please watch for any changes. Previous discussion
follows.

Great share! I would like to say someone made this comment earlier and it is very true. Put down some snow to our NE and we get some cold dry air running down here and things can get dicey. Plus the previous WRF models indicated an ice storm for many. 

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2 minutes ago, Shannon said:

Great share! I would like to say someone made this comment earlier and it is very true. Put down some snow to our NE and we get some cold dry air running down here and things can get dicey. Plus the previous WRF models indicated an ice storm for many. 

The WRF simulated radar was very ominous in my opinion.  The CAD was stretched very far SW.

wrf-arw2_ref_frzn_seus_48.png

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5 minutes ago, DDD_GON_WEATHER said:

The WRF simulated radar was very ominous in my opinion.  The CAD was stretched very far SW.

wrf-arw2_ref_frzn_seus_48.png

Potentially overdone but maybe not thus I understand the concern from the NWS. 

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6 minutes ago, Shannon said:

Potentially overdone but maybe not thus I understand the concern from the NWS. 

We shall see in the AM what the models are telling us. 

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16 minutes ago, Shannon said:

Potentially overdone but maybe not thus I understand the concern from the NWS. 

I agree it may be overdone but even if you scale that back, it's still a big hit for typical CAD areas.

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Conceptually, I can see the CAD stretching out through WNW GA. It's happened in the past and, as depicted, pretty much follows the regional geography.

What I am having difficulty with is the cold rain that runs from NE AL into TN and is bounded north and south by freezing rain. I want to say when those of us in NW GA get kissed by the CAD we're typically on the southern end of things and NE AL and S TN are getting frozen or freezing stuff as well. Maybe it speaks to how marginal things are?

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2 minutes ago, DDD_GON_WEATHER said:

I agree it may be overdone but even if you scale that back, it's still a big hit for typical CAD areas.

Time to go buy gas for the generator. 

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Snap34568-08.thumb.jpg.9da883560cee313d5d901d1a32baac93.jpg

Quote

GAZ006-007-013-022-025-027-034>038-047-081730-
/O.UPG.KFFC.WS.A.0001.181209T0600Z-181210T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KFFC.WW.Y.0005.181209T0300Z-181210T0600Z/
FANNIN-GILMER-PICKENS-FORSYTH-JACKSON-MADISON-GWINNETT-BARROW-
CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WALTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF BLUE RIDGE, COHUTTA WILDERNESS, COLWELL, 
DIAL, EPWORTH, HEMP, HIGDON, BLACK GAP SHELTER, CARTECAY, 
CHERRY LOG, EAST ELLIJAY, ELLIJAY, MARION, MOUNTAINTOWN, BLAINE, 
HINTON, JASPER, LAKE TAMARACK, MARBLEHILL, NELSON, SEQUOYAH LAKE,
BROOKWOOD, CHESTATEE, COAL MOUNTAIN, CUMMING, DREW, DUCKTOWN, 
HIGHTOWER, APPLE VALLEY, ARCADE, BEAR CREEK RESERVOIR, BRASELTON,
CENTER, COMMERCE, HOSCHTON, CARLTON, COLBERT, COMER, 
DANIELSVILLE, DIAMOND HILL, HARRISON, HULL, LAWRENCEVILLE, 
AUBURN, BETHLEHEM, CARL, CHATEAU ELAN, COUNTY LINE, 
FORT YARGO STATE PARK, RUSSELL, ATHENS, BARNETT SHOALS, BISHOP, 
BOGART, EASTVILLE, FARMINGTON, NORTH HIGH SHOALS, ROSE HILL, 
ARNOLDSVILLE, CRAWFORD, DUNLAP, HUTCHINGS, LEXINGTON, MAXEYS, 
PHILOMATH, BETWEEN, BOLD SPRINGS, CAMPTON, EBENEZER, GOOD HOPE, 
GRATIS, AND HERNDONVILLE
416 AM EST SAT DEC 8 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
1 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
  UP TO ONE INCH AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN 
  INCH EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GUST TO AS HIGH AS 35 MPH.

* WHERE...PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA, MAINLY
  NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ELLIJAY TO JASPER TO CUMMING TO 
  LAWRENCEVILLE TO LEXINGTON.

* WHEN...FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST MONDAY.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...WHILE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE GROUND WILL BE
  AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING, MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON TREES AND
  POWER LINES ARE LIKELY LEADING TO SOME POWER OUTAGES. PERIODS 
  OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 
  MILE. PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND
  OVERPASSES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW, SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. EXPECT SLIPPERY
ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES, AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. 

 

 

 

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Snap34570-08.thumb.jpg.5eb12e2bcc1c465c7627900aedcd82d9.jpg

Quote

Union-Towns-Dawson-Lumpkin-White-Hall-Banks-
Including the cities of Blairsville, Blood Mountain Shelter,
Gaddistown, Gooch Mountain Shelter, Hawk Mountain Shelter,
Ivy Log, Jones Creek, Alexanders Mill, Blue Mountain Shelter,
Brasstown Bald, Gumlog, Hiawassee, Macedonia, Mountain Scene,
Amicalola Falls State Park, Dawsonville, Dougherty, Fausett Lake,
Juno, Len Foote Hike Inn, Lumpkin, Dahlonega, Cleveland,
Gainesville, Alto, Banks Crossing, Five Points, Hollingsworth,
Homer, and Pinefield Crossroads
416 AM EST Sat Dec 8 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM
EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
  accumulations of up to 3 inches and ice accumulations around
  three tenths of an inch expected. Some sleet may also occur.
  Winds will gust to as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northeast Georgia, mainly
  north and east of a line from Blairsville to Dawsonville to
  Gainesville to Homer. The heaviest snow accumulations will
  occur at elevations above 2500 feet.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...While temperatures near the ground will be
  at or just below freezing, significant ice accumulation on trees
  and power lines are likely. Power outages and tree damage are
  likely due to the ice. Heavy wet snow may also lead to downed
  tree limbs and additional power outages. Visibility may drop to
  less than one half mile during periods of heavy snow. Plan on
  slippery road conditions especially on bridges and overpasses.

 

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