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NorthGeorgiaWX

Potential Winter Threat - December 6-11

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Wow, impressed with the temp drops down there. Still 39.1 here after staying above 40 all night.... Certainly not going to get the early changeover that some of the models have shown. At this rate I don’t expect anything til late afternoon.

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Just now, KingOfTheMountains said:

Wow, impressed with the temp drops down there. Still 39.1 here after staying above 40 all night.... Certainly not going to get the early changeover that some of the models have shown. At this rate I don’t expect anything til late afternoon.

Most models and indications say later this evening. For me, it will be after midnight.

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On my DaculaWeather.com home page, I have a section for the forecast. It defaults to Dacula, but you'll find most of the larger cities and towns in the drop down box. Select your location or the closest location to you, the NWS uses a grid for forecasting, so locations close to you are probably in the same grid as you.

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The page will refresh with the forecast for the location that you selected and at the bottom of the forecast you'll see what is highlighted in the section below.

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If you click on that link, it will take you to a page that has tables and charts showing the hour by hour NWS forecast for your area. It defaults to a "Tabular Forecast" format but you can click on the "Graphical Forecast" tab. Be sure to check off "Freezing Rain", "Sleet", and "Snow". Mine looks like this for my location in Gwinnett

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Just last night all the models were showing changeover around 1pm, which is why they put our WSW up to noon, but we’ve been well above forecasted temps all night and that continues this morning. And GSP is now starting to reduce snowfall by as much as 3-4 inches in the hourly forecasts up here. Hoping it’s at least sleet at this point and not rain/freezing rain for longer.

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I'm in the 33 degree zone.  That is cutting it pretty close.  I'm still guessing we have nothing but a cold yucky rain -- but nasty surprises can happen.  I remember I was VERY pregnant in either December 99 or January 2000.  I think it was the beginning of 2000.  That's when we had our last true "ice storm,"  when the precipitation fell as rain and froze on contact.  It was a beautiful wonderland until we started hearing limbs snap, trees fall, and transformers blow.  We were without power for 4 days (NW of Metro Atlanta.).  My skinny husband was freezing and preggo me was just fine with some blankets.  But I wouldn't care to repeat that again!

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8 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

According to the HRRR, the worst of the freezing would come tomorrow morning. 

Possible 9 am temps

1650138318_HRRR3-kmundefinedundefined26-08.thumb.png.b4a47ecb67d262f56110d10949ade316.png

By this time moisture is leaving though! 

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It's been 40-41 degrees here in Winder since I woke up at 6 a.m. Dew point is at 40. Patiently waiting...

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Good trends in the 12z short term models though. And looking at the current pressure map our high is moving eastward nicely with a 1038 now showing up in Ohio and heights starting to spill southward east of the Apps. 679C17EA-45AB-4301-9F89-77BCC0DC6527.gif.2daff73fa6f5a551e7a38cfb1df98b05.gifSo overall just a slightly warmer start than expected here, but things still look on track for the heart of the storm for sure. 

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Just now, KingOfTheMountains said:

Good trends in the 12z short term models though. And looking at the current pressure map our high is moving eastward nicely with a 1038 now showing up in Ohio and heights starting to spill southward east of the Apps. 679C17EA-45AB-4301-9F89-77BCC0DC6527.gif.2daff73fa6f5a551e7a38cfb1df98b05.gifSo overall just a slightly warmer start than expected here, but things still look on track for the heart of the storm for sure. 

I just hope the high pressure gets in the right spot at the right time...cold air (enough) is what I worry about 

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Here's the HRRR at midnight. One immediate threat before most of the winter threats, will be wind gust in the 30-40 mph range AFTER 1-2" of rain fall. Loose wet soils with high winds are not compatible with trees, especially in the high elevations. Add ice to that mixture and there will be a lot of trees and tree branches coming down, and of course that also means power outages. Have alternative power sources or some other way to stay warm if the power goes off. If the roads are icy, you may not have the option to drive someplace else to get warm, so keep that in mind. 

Also note, this situation is only just beginning around midnight, things go downhill from that point on, and the coldest temps will occur toward morning. 

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3 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Big temp drop from 38.2 to 35.7 in just the last 15 minutes

Out of curiosity where are you located?

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5 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

My temp for the moment, it rock steady. If you just started getting precip, that could be the reason for the quick drop.

Yep. First real heavy shower came through and cooled things from the top down. Was thinking it may tick up after it passed, but so far down a bit more to 35.4

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Temperature in Athens has risen slightly from 39 to 41. Come on cold air! I wanna see at least something other than cold rain this time!

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According to Joe D'Aleo,  the record snowfall for Asheville NC is 18.2" during the 1993 Storm of The Century. 

This storm may exceed that. 

On top of that, 3 of the top 26 snowfalls there occurred during the Modoki El Nino of 2009/10.

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