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NorthGeorgiaWX

Potential Winter Threat - December 6-11

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I remember 1988.  I was in Okolona Ms at the time, just south of Tupelo.  Because of the weather forecast we stayed over at the in-laws with our children since they had a generator.  It was about 21 degrees and it was a snow/sleet mix that settled in for a long duration.  We had  6-8 inches in the area.  We stayed in the in-laws camper next to their house and the sound of the wind and the snow and sleet was so loud.   Even had a few instances of thunder snow i think? Interesting night to be sure!

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24 minutes ago, drchubbz said:

I googled the storm (Jan 1988) Eric Webb mentions in his tweet because I didn’t live here so I had no clue what that storm was like. He was saying it was a similar set-up  to this storm coming up. 

DC59FFF4-27FB-4D90-9200-84C2EABF1E71.jpeg

Go here. You'll need to download the plugin, but this will give you all the details for that period.

https://library.noaa.gov/Collections/Digital-Collections/US-Daily-Weather-Maps

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21 minutes ago, Foots said:

So do you have an educated guess on what we can expect here in the Walton/Gwinnett area yet? Or is it still to early?

Still too early. 

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28 minutes ago, drchubbz said:

I googled the storm (Jan 1988) Eric Webb mentions in his tweet because I didn’t live here so I had no clue what that storm was like. He was saying it was a similar set-up  to this storm coming up. 

DC59FFF4-27FB-4D90-9200-84C2EABF1E71.jpeg

Here's where that low started out.

Snap34504-.thumb.jpg.ea1b9d5eecdb739ad19f584250b79a59.jpg

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So please forgive me for asking what probably sounds like a dumb question to most of you who are more weather educated than I am.  I am asking because the answer usually depends on who you're talking to but I trust NorthGeorgiaWX.  When you are referring to NE Ga, where would the "line" be as far as which counties are included in that.   Asking from Dawson County!

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I am predicting an ice storm in Atlanta because we left our chainsaw in Virginia over Thanksgiving where we had to clean up after the previous ice storm they had.  My family lives in the Blue Ridge Mountains outside of Roanoke above the Parkway :-) 

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3 minutes ago, momto2auties said:

So please forgive me for asking what probably sounds like a dumb question to most of you who are more weather educated than I am.  I am asking because the answer usually depends on who you're talking to but I trust NorthGeorgiaWX.  When you are referring to NE Ga, where would the "line" be as far as which counties are included in that.   Asking from Dawson County!

Not a dumb question at all. You are not in what would be the heaviest area, but you are in an area that would see some winter weather. Keep in mind this is real early and it's all going to change. Right now it's all about the trends and today the trends have been favorable. 🙂

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Just now, warnerharmer said:

I am predicting an ice storm in Atlanta because we left our chainsaw in Virginia over Thanksgiving where we had to clean up after the previous ice storm they had.  My family lives in the Blue Ridge Mountains outside of Roanoke above the Parkway 🙂 

Then you know what to expect. 🙂 That's a good thing! Well... except for the fact you left your chainsaw! 🙂

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question - once the wave hits California can the track get nailed down?  Are we wanting the low to come across around Jacksonville FL?   

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5 minutes ago, sf0606 said:

question - once the wave hits California can the track get nailed down?  Are we wanting the low to come across around Jacksonville FL?   

Pretty much where the low hits the west coast will in many ways determine where it exits on the east coast. And yes, Jacksonville would be great! 🙂  And thanks for adding the name Scott! Much appreciated! 

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NWS GSP - 2:30 pm Tuesday

Again, if you are int he NE GA zone covered by GSP, this is for you. And congratulations in advance! 🙂

Quote

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Tuesday: Still expecting a potentially significant
winter storm starting Saturday and possibly continuing into Monday.
However, the models continue to waffle a bit on the details. The
latest forecast blends the 12z ECMWF and GFS, which have both
trended a little south with the sfc low track across the Gulf
Coast/Deep South, resulting in slightly colder thicknesses. The 12z
guidance has generally trended upward on QPF, as has WPC. This looks
like a fairly heavy QPF event, if trends hold. The WPC days 4-7
winter outlook now shows 70-90 percent chance of winter storm
warning criteria ice/snow accumulations across portions of the NC
mountains from 12z Saturday to 12z Sunday, with additional amounts
likely from 12z Sunday to 12z Monday. One of the reasons the models
have trended wetter is that they show a strong secondary shortwave
that dives in behind the main southern stream wave on Monday. This
keeps a deformation zone over the area thru the day on Monday, with
thicknesses supporting mostly snow.

The set up still looks the same...a split flow regime across the
western CONUS with confluent flow and a northern stream trough in
the East. Sfc high pressure of 1032-1038 mb elongated east-west
across the Great Lakes supports classic/strong CAD. As the southern
stream wave ejects from the Four Corners region to the Southern
Plains, strong upglide and frontogenesis coupled with upper level
divergence should spread precip into the area sometime on Saturday.
The models continue to delay the onset a little with each run. The
brunt of the precip and strong CAD looks to be Saturday night thru
Sunday (again these times may slip further). The 12z ECMWF has a
very strong easterly jet on the north side of the low, resulting in
strong moisture transport. So this has a lot going for it, QPF-wise.
As for temperatures/thicknesses, it's still so borderline with sfc
wetbulb temps and warm nose position and strength. Went with a
blend of 12Z ECMWF/GFS for the partial thickness nomogram technique.
Still looks like a wintry mix for much of the area, with possibly
heavy snow in the mountains and northern Foothills. Depending on the
strength of the CAD, Freezing rain could also be a bigger concern
across the Piedmont. Hopefully, things start converging on a
solution as we get closer to this weekend. But anyway, now is the
time to put your winter weather plan together to be prepared for
this upcoming and future potential winter storms.
 

 

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The WPC is now issuing the probability maps for this storm. Keep in mind this is early on... all of this will change and these probabilities will go up as we get closer in time. Both of these maps show the probability of exceeding 0.25" equivalent melted liquid from sleet and snow. 

Period Ending 7 AM Sunday

Snap34506-04.thumb.jpg.41daa06f96bbc70ed333ecc32f218ee3.jpg

 

Period Ending 7 AM Monday

Snap34507-04.thumb.jpg.f71e00830509de6302b52f0b9f1929be.jpg

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Any idea if Athens is going to get in on this party? I know we are difficult to predict (something ab a no-mans land when it comes to radar) and it’s several days out- but just curious if we are even in the “possibility” range with this event. Basically- should I be getting excited at all?! Thanks for all you do and the evolving coverage- you’re awesome!! 

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The GEFS is even showing something as far south as Lawrenceville. Fun times ahead! Round and round she goes... and where she stops... nobody knows. 🙂 Mother Nature.... you gotta love her! 

NOT A FORECAST

KLZU_2018120412_gefs_snow_384-04.thumb.png.b8e714b5cd0ae4a786a4d8e64593c61a.png

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