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SPC MD 1050

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Mesoscale Discussion 1050
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1023 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019

Areas affected...northwest Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 352...

Valid 120323Z - 120430Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 352

SUMMARY...Storms may continue to pose a threat for large hail and
strong to damaging gusts through 04Z but an overall weakening trend
should persist. WW 352 is scheduled to expire at 04Z, and a
downstream watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Storms have evolved into a small line segment across
northwest OK, and have been undergoing a gradual weakening trend as
they move south. Activity appears to be forward propagating within
zone of strong convergence along its consolidated outflow. The
downstream boundary layer continues to stabilize with RAP analysis
indicating a substantial increase in surface based convective
inhibition. This suggests the weakening trend should continue during
the next hour. A few additional storms could still develop within
the evolving warm advection regime and in association with a
southeast-advancing shortwave trough. However, updrafts will be
elevated which suggests any severe threat will not be as robust and
limited to mainly small to marginally severe hail.

..Dial.. 06/12/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   36599895 36689821 35739815 35349876 35599951 36249930

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