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Mesoscale Discussion 1128
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0812 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

Areas affected...parts of northeast Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 190112Z - 190245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A supercell may produce some large hail and perhaps a
brief tornado before becoming undercut by outflow to the north. A WW
issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A lone supercell is currently traversing an area just
south of the KS/OK border. This storm is expected to progress
eastward across eastern Osage county, possibly into Washington
county over the next hour or so. Large hail (perhaps up to 2.0
inches in diameter) and a brief tornado may occur given the
proximity of the storm to an outflow boundary to the north. However,
the aforementioned outflow is likely to undercut the storm within
the next hour, likely resulting in a gradual decrease in the severe
threat thereafter. Given the brevity and limited spatial extent of
the severe threat, a WW issuance is not currently expected.

..Squitieri/Edwards.. 06/19/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   36929665 37069627 36939567 36669552 36479562 36429610
            36529659 36649665 36929665 

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