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Ready to see more of these as the winter goes on, especially if we can get one to track along the Gulf coast first!

 

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Flood Warning for Big Creek near Alpharetta.

09-aphg1_hg.png.4e48e321fb83196f2a2fa8c363c841a5.png

The National Weather Service in Peachtree City has issued a
* Flood Warning for
  The Big Creek near Alpharetta.
* From late tonight until Saturday evening.
* At 145 PM Friday the stage was 6.5 feet, and rising.
* Minor flooding is forecast to develop.
* Flood stage is 7 feet.
* The creek is forecast to rise above flood stage by early Saturday
  morning, then continue rising, reaching near 7.1 feet by early
  Saturday afternoon. The creek will fall below flood stage later
  Saturday afternoon.
* At 6 feet, bankfull conditions are reached along the creek between
  Cumming in Forsyth County to Alpharetta and Roswell in North Fulton
  County. Some low lying spots along The Big Creek Greenway will begin
  to flood with a few inches of water upstream and downstream from the
  gage on Kimball Bridge Road. Water will begin to enter low portions
  of the YMCA Campground off Preston Ridge Road.

  At 7 feet, flood Stage is reached with minor flooding of woodlands
  and fields beginning along the creek between Cumming in Forsyth
  County to Alpharetta and Roswell in North Fulton County. Flooding
  will effect portions of The Big Creek Greenway near Alpharetta and
  some portions may become closed with around one foot of water,
  especially upstream and downstream from the gage on Kimball Bridge
  Road and near Rock Mill Park. Portions of the YMCA Campground off
  Preston Ridge Road will also begin to flood.

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Good Saturday morning! Starting off a little cold this morning, here's the latest about the weekend weather from the Atlanta NWS office

Quote

.SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...

Blustery start to the weekend in post cold front regime as enhanced
NW gradient winds usher in a strong ridge of high pressure. Winds
should gradually decrease by afternoon and some lingering cold
advection stratocu across parts of the north should scatter out
later this morning to allow for mostly sunny but chilly day. Highs
will struggle to reach the 50 deg mark in the NW half of the CWA.

Continued Freeze Watch for tonight into Sunday morning for much of
north GA and parts of west central, given expected upper 20's to
lower 30's.

Sunday will continue to be abnormally cold with highs still about 15
deg below climo (low to mid 50's) as the aforementioned high quickly
slides eastward and starts to build in a CAD wedge as we transition

into the long term. Progged thermal columns indicate mid-level
moisture return by the afternoon so will gradually get some alto
clouds building in and introduced a slight chance for showers in the
SW. If you can stand the cooler temps, the weekend will definitely
be a lot more pleasant than the start of the work week.

 

And as we move into Monday and the rest of the work week... it all goes downhill.

Quote

.LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...

A shift to a wetter pattern will be underway to begin the extended
period. On Sunday night, the high pressure driving the cold, dry
pattern in the short term will shift eastward into the Atlantic.
Meanwhile, a surface low will develop in the western Gulf of Mexico
and begin to push northeastward. Moisture ahead of the surface low
will progressively move into the forecast area beginning on Sunday.
Cloud coverage will continue to increase on Sunday night and into
Monday, at which point overcast skies are expected throughout the
day. Rain chances will similarly increase from the southwest to the
northeast on Sunday night into Monday and PoP's in the 80-90% range
are anticipated area-wide by Monday afternoon.


CAD wedge will build in across northern Georgia on Monday, so high
temperatures are capped in the mid 40s across north Georgia at that

time. The surface low will move northeastward across Georgia on
Monday night and into Tuesday morning. As it does, the moisture
associated with the low will contribute to deep moisture ahead of a
deepening longwave trough associated with an upper-level closed low
in south-central Canada. This trough and an associated surface cold
front will drop into the midwestern states and as far south as
southeastern Texas at this time. In the deep moisture and
southwesterly flow ahead of this trough, we will see continued
rainfall throughout our region on Monday night and into the daytime
on Tuesday. With daytime temperatures only ranging from the mid 40's
to upper 50's on Monday and Tuesday, instability will be limited and
thunder is therefore not expected at this time. Overall, widespread
rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are anticipated throughout the
region from this system.


GFS and ECMWF models are a bit inconsistent on when the front and
associated precipitation will clear the area to the southeast. For
now, GFS is faster and moves the cold front through by Tuesday
evening, while the ECMWF moves it out about 6 hours later in the
early morning hours Wednesday. Some uncertainty also still exists
regarding the timing of drying behind the frontal passage and if
any wraparound precipitation will linger behind the front. For now
it does not appear that any lingering precipitation will coincide
with subfreezing temperatures but this will need to be monitored
over the next few days for the potential for frozen precipitation

far northeast Georgia. After the passage of the cold front,
another surface high will build into the southeastern CONUS which
will promote colder and drier than average conditions from
Wednesday through the end of the extended period.

 

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Here are the potential record low temps and the record low high temps that might be set today, notice a few in the southeast. The colder air comes in next week. ?

Potential Record Lows

10-ndfd_record_low_conus2_1.thumb.png.49dc226bc639b8a4ae84063024176a1a.png

 

Potential Record Low High Temps

10-ndfd_record_minhi_conus2_1.thumb.png.1f9e39af8b8bd49bcd769be34b3931d4.png

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A NEW Freeze Warning has been issued:

Quote

FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-COBB-NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-
BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-
DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-NEWTON-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-
SPALDING-HENRY-TROUP-MERIWETHER-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF GAINESVILLE, MARIETTA, ATLANTA, 
LAWRENCEVILLE, ATHENS, DOUGLASVILLE, EAST POINT, DECATUR, 
CONYERS, COVINGTON, NEWNAN, PEACHTREE CITY, AND GRIFFIN
1024 AM EST SAT NOV 10 2018

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
FREEZE WARNING, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST SUNDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

* TIMING...9 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH 10 AM EST SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION
  AND DAMAGE UNPROTECTED OUTDOOR PLUMBING. 

* LOCATIONS...NORTH GEORGIA AND PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA,
  ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LAGRANGE TO GRIFFIN TO COVINGTON
  TO WASHINGTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

10-Snap295.thumb.jpg.a784548ad6a7664ffcc5b54f0f3247cb.jpg

 

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I'm getting excited about my chances for seeing snow next weekend in the Smokies. The only problem is that the snow starts before we leave which means I might not get over the mountains. The snow starts in the afternoon on Saturday and the Euro is showing almost a foot of snow across the higher elevations. We might have to go up a day early and get a place to stay for the night to beat the snow. It's a rough life I know... ?

 

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Good Monday morning! Hope everyone had a great weekend. It's going to be a VERY wet week with cold temperatures to make it even more miserable. ?
 
Not seeing any chance for flakes of white stuff right now, I suppose it's still possible for some people up in the mountains to see a couple of flakes, but for everyone else, just expect a cold rain.
 
And lots of rain at that. Over the next 7 days, some areas will receive enough rain to cause some flooding issues as creeks and streams start to fill up and overflow.
 
 
 
7 Day Rainfall

12-wpc_acc_precip_atlanta_168.thumb.png.c325b41bb65d21773de9acc7f8d0a4d4.png

 

High temperatures will be kept in check today by a wedge bringing cold air down the east side of the Appalachian's, and will leave many people about 20 degrees below normal for this time of the year. 

12-ndfd_t2max_anom_atl_1.thumb.png.790ae829093a668eb56c4586a4df2ea2.png

 

From the NWS

Quote

Short term period will wet throughout as a weak surface low over the
northern Gulf spreads moisture northward over our forecast area.
Precipitation is moving into the area from west-central Alabama and
will spread from southwest to northeast through the area during
morning Monday. PoPs will progressively increase before becoming
categorical across the majority of the area by Monday afternoon.
Cloud coverage has similarly increased and overcast skies are in
place across north and central Georgia. These overcast ceilings
will continue to lower throughout Monday morning. This low
pressure will move across our area late Monday into Tuesday
morning and as such the highest PoPs are expected at this time.
After the low moves off to the northeast, our region will remain
in deep southwesterly flow ahead of an upper-level open wave
dropping southeastward towards the ArkLaTex region.

Wedging has set up across northern Georgia ahead of the approaching
wave and is expected stay entrenched across the area at least
through Monday evening. Combined with warm advection and increasing
cloud coverage, low temperatures Monday morning will be a bit warmer
than the previous couple of days, with readings in the upper 30s and
40s. The wedge will also limit high temperatures Monday to the 40s
to mid 50s across North and Central GA. Because of the limited
temperatures due to the influence of the wedge, minimal instability
is expected so continuing with mainly showers Monday and Monday
night. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the far southern
portions of the area, where temperatures are the highest, but the
probability of thunder is low nonetheless.
 

 

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