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November Weather Discussion

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The snow that year(2014) caused me i guess to forget about the real cold, but i do remember it was a very cold winter.  I was noticing the long range forecast was mentioning possibilities of snow or ice -----  but the forecast has changed already in less than 24 hours.  So that means  we will have to not get too excited unless it is 2-3 days out and remains in the forecast.

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Clouds are moving back in from the southwest, so if you're in the sunshine now, you won't be later. ? Enjoy it while you can. The next time we'll have an extended period of sun will be Saturday after the first cold front passes through.

07-Snap90.png.21c7e5827f91fc958e2ec1458624e5ca.png

 

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07-mcd1629.gif.ddf32f2e04c6e55cb983e86c2e38480a.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 1629
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1034 AM CST Wed Nov 07 2018

Areas affected...Portions of far eastern
Mississippi...southern/central Alabama...and far western Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 071634Z - 071730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated instances of large hail and a couple of stronger
wind gusts will be possible through this afternoon. Watch issuance
is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Within the right-entrance region of a jet streak
centered over the Ohio Valley, large-scale ascent is aiding
convective activity across parts of Mississippi and Alabama this
morning. The 12Z JAN sounding sampled strong mid-level westerlies,
favorable for some updraft organization and increased hail growth.
Additionally, the presence of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE is
supportive of a few stronger updrafts. The sounding also sampled a
subsidence inversion around 700 mb, but aforementioned ascent
related to the upper jet is likely eroding this layer of dry air
above 700 mb.

Most convection will likely be focused near a front situated across
southern/central Alabama, and these cells will be capable of
isolated large hail and a couple of damaging gusts into this
afternoon. A cell or two farther north may also be capable of
marginally severe hail and some gusty winds, but the severe threat
should diminish with northward extent. Regardless, cells are not
expected to be organized enough to necessitate watch issuance.

..Picca/Thompson.. 11/07/2018

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Over the next several days, multiple batches of rain will traverse the area before it comes to an end late Friday when the cold front pushes through. 

 

07-NAM-WRF 3-km Southeast US Simulated Radar.gif

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