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Good morning!

I hope everyone had a great 4th of July! It appears that the weather turned out pretty decent for most people.

More afternoon and evening showers in the forecast, but no much need to talk about that, but there may be something to talk about for next weekend.

Quote

The long term period begins with high pressure southwest of the
area, with a trough approaching from the west. At this point, models
look to close the low as it pushes south into our area. This will
help to enhance chances for precipitation on Sunday through
Wednesday. This system will continue to be the focus through the end
of the long term as the low moves into the Gulf on Wednesday and

remains there before moving back inland later in the forecast. Being
this far out in the forecast, this system will continue to be
monitored for any tropical development.

Overall, showers and thunderstorms are expected daily, although mainly in the afternoons
and evenings. At least chance pops have been included most
afternoons with some areas of likely pops included on Sunday through
Tuesday. Precipitable water values are also expected to be fairly
high through several days of the long term period, with values
ranging from about 1.8 to 2.5 inches at times. As a result, heavy

rain will be possible with any thunderstorms. Otherwise, high
temperatures through the extended will be a few degrees above
average with temps in the upper 80's to lower 90's. Low
temperatures are still running about 2 to 7 degrees above normal
with temps in the mid 60's to lower 70's. Heat indices will also
continue to be monitored through the extended as several days are
showing heat indices approaching heat advisory criteria (105
degrees).
 

 

The latest GFS is now pulling the low back and lifting it north over the TX area as you can see in this precipitable water loop. All of the reddish colors are precipitable water values that are 2" and above.

gfs-deterministic-se-pwat-1562284800-1562504400-1563213600-10.thumb.gif.3a55b8fcac0c8124f162fec462700c77.gif

The Euro on the other hand, spins this up and brings it right across Georgia, so this is certainly something that bears watching. Notice the areas in blue in the center of the red, those are PW' values in the 3-4" range.

ecmwf-se-pwat-2997600.thumb.png.3a5afb8bfac5301a7fdd218570f48c91.png

ecmwf-se-pwat-3062400.thumb.png.2d51db8bdbffad572c8b54f7f3a1615a.png

 

I know a lot of people are on vacation and at the beaches, so I'll be tracking this potential disturbance for you. As soon as we know more, I will be sure to let you know so please keep checking back.

Otherwise, have a GREAT day! We're headed downtown tonight to see Jeff Lynne and ELO! I'll send a postcard! 🙂

 

forecast-05.thumb.jpg.9390d67e54a89ac9676a91211165605b.jpg

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That time of the year when uncertainty raises her head!

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1 hour ago, MNW said:

That time of the year when uncertainty raises her head!

And that uncertainty will only increase as the hurricane season heads toward its peak. I don't think this will be much more than heavy rain, but it's still too early to know for sure. At least it's more interesting than the normal summer weather we've been having. 

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Oh no!  My daughter leaves for Panama City Beach with her church youth group on the 14th! Thanks for the heads up!

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It will be next week before we have a better idea what might happen.

1 hour ago, LEmbs said:

Oh no!  My daughter leaves for Panama City Beach with her church youth group on the 14th! Thanks for the heads up!

 

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2 hours ago, BishopJean said:

Boo! Heading to Myrtle Beach on the 12th!

Let's see what happens the first part of the week, it may or may not do what the models are showing. 

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