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Mesoscale Discussion 1436
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

Areas affected...southeastern New Mexico and vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 111903Z - 112000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated/sporadic severe wind and large hail are possible
with an ongoing thunderstorm cluster over Chaves/Eddy Counties.  A
WW issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently intensified along a weak
confluence zone over Chaves and Eddy Counties.  These storms are in
a strongly unstable environment, with modification of point forecast
soundings for low to mid-60s F dewpoints noted at ROW and CNM
yielding 3000-4000 J/kg MUCAPE amidst steep low and mid-level lapse
rates.  Though vertical shear profiles are generally weak and only
marginally supportive of organization, 20-25 kt northeasterly
mid-level flow may support storms tending to congeal and propagate
slowly south-southwestward with time while continuing to pose an
isolated wind/hail risk over the next couple hours or so.  This
threat will be too localized/isolated to necessitate a WW issuance,

..Cook/Grams.. 07/11/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   34250563 34630524 34600419 33960345 32680303 31840306
            31460413 31730509 32620544 34250563 

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