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MD 1436 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND VICINITY
MD 1436 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1436
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

Areas affected...southeastern New Mexico and vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 111903Z - 112000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated/sporadic severe wind and large hail are possible
with an ongoing thunderstorm cluster over Chaves/Eddy Counties.  A
WW issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently intensified along a weak
confluence zone over Chaves and Eddy Counties.  These storms are in
a strongly unstable environment, with modification of point forecast
soundings for low to mid-60s F dewpoints noted at ROW and CNM
yielding 3000-4000 J/kg MUCAPE amidst steep low and mid-level lapse
rates.  Though vertical shear profiles are generally weak and only
marginally supportive of organization, 20-25 kt northeasterly
mid-level flow may support storms tending to congeal and propagate
slowly south-southwestward with time while continuing to pose an
isolated wind/hail risk over the next couple hours or so.  This
threat will be too localized/isolated to necessitate a WW issuance,
however.

..Cook/Grams.. 07/11/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   34250563 34630524 34600419 33960345 32680303 31840306
            31460413 31730509 32620544 34250563 

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