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MD 1457 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
MD 1457 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1457
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0516 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

Areas affected...Portions of northern North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 132216Z - 132345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe risk exists with a supercell
approaching the U.S/Canada border. Large hail is the main concern,
though a few damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado are also not out
of the question. Given the very sparse and localized nature of the
severe threat, a WW issuance is not expected at this time.

DISCUSSION...A supercell has recently developed and matured in a
relatively weakly forced environment, characterized by modest deep
layer ascent. Nonetheless, this storm has become sustained within an
ambient characterized by ample buoyancy (up to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE) and
deep-layer shear (40+ knots bulk-effective shear). Low level
directional and speed shear are quite modest, leading to nearly
straight hodographs which promote splitting supercells. The
supercell approaching eastern Burke/western Renville counties in ND
is the result of the right split, and has shown indication of large
hail (potentially approaching 2.0 inches in diameter) per latest
scans of the KMBX radar data, and MRMS data showing 60+ dBZ cores
extending past the -20C layer. Damaging gusts may also occur with
forward and rear-flank downdrafts. Despite the meager directional
shear, a tornado cannot be ruled out given favorable buoyancy in
place.

Little evidence is in place for additional convective development,
and given the sparse and localized nature of the current severe
threat, a WW issuance is not currently anticipated.

..Squitieri/Grams.. 07/13/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...

LAT...LON   48990264 48960023 48880013 48690008 48350037 47990082
            47690146 48640266 48990264 

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