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SPC MD 1456

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Mesoscale Discussion 1456
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0510 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern MT

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 132210Z - 140015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for strong to severe winds and large
hail should persist through this evening. Watch issuance is

DISCUSSION...Storms that developed earlier this afternoon across the
higher terrain of southwestern MT have spread northeastward and
developed into a broken line in central MT. Stronger mid-level
westerly flow should remain generally north of the international
border through this evening. But, a modest enhancement to the winds
above 500 mb is promoting around 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear
across central/eastern MT. The broken line of convection has
struggled to maintain intensity this afternoon in the presence of
weak buoyancy (MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg). Still, steep mid-level
lapse rates have overspread the northern High Plains, and with a
well-mixed boundary layer isolated strong to severe winds could
occur as these storms move east-northeastward this evening. Large
hail may also be possible with the more robust cores embedded within
the line. Given current radar trends, it remains unclear whether a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed. An increase in storm
intensity across central MT would be necessary to increase the
likelihood of watch issuance.

..Gleason/Grams.. 07/13/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   45460734 45550878 46230903 47130979 47781031 48501002
            48920920 48960714 48540484 47610444 46650492 45870579

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