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Mesoscale Discussion 1458
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0715 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

Areas affected...Parts of southeast South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 140015Z - 140145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few additional damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few
severe hail stones remain possible with the outflow dominant storm
in southeast SD over the next couple of hours. Given the outflow
dominant nature of the storm, and subsequent trajectory towards a
more stable air mass. A gradual weakening trend is expected.

DISCUSSION...An outflow dominant supercell is ongoing across Beadle
County, SD, moving southeast at approximately 35-40 knots. This
storm has a history of producing severe winds, including a report of
76 mph measured at the Huron, SD ASOS site. So far this storm has
traversed an instability gradient, with up to 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE
confined to the uncontaminated warm sector, on the west/south sides
of multiple convective outflow boundaries. Recently however, this
storm has fallen slightly behind its own outflow, with a slightly
more eastward trajectory noted on radar. This trajectory would lead
the storm into a more stable airmass, on the east (cool) side of an
outflow boundary delineated by earlier convection. 

In the near term, the storm may remain severe so long as some
buoyant parcels on the immediate warm side of the boundary may be
ingested into the updraft region above ground level (between the
surface and around 1400 m AGL, the layer defining the region of
effective storm inflow per latest RAP forecast soundings). While it
is unclear how deep the outflow boundaries are and thus, how much
effective inflow for the storm remains, current thinking is that the
storm will continue to translate into a progressively more stable
airmass, which in turn will likely lead to its demise.

..Squitieri/Grams.. 07/14/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   44369734 43869685 43439669 43159698 43059768 43229816
            43779895 44509957 44679890 44649798 44369734 

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