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MD 1459 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LA AND FAR SOUTHERN MS
MD 1459 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1459
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0822 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

Areas affected...Portions of southeastern LA and far southern MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 140122Z - 140315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The risk for a brief tornado will continue across parts of
southeastern Louisiana this evening. Watch issuance appears unlikely
due to the isolated nature of this threat.

DISCUSSION...An outer rain band of Tropical Storm Barry oriented
generally north-south over parts the New Orleans metro has recently
consolidated across portions of southeastern LA. This band is on the
eastern periphery of enhanced low-level southerly winds within the
eastern half of Barry's circulation. The 00Z sounding from LIX
showed very little low-level directional shear, but some speed shear
was present in the 0-3 km layer. Recent VWP estimates from KLIX
radar show a gradual weakening trend to these low-level winds
coincident with Barry's slow north-northwestward movement inland.
Fast northward motion of individual cells embedded within the rain
band yields approximately 100 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH, with occasional
weak rotation noted aloft in a couple cells. Current expectations
are that the threat for a brief tornado will likely remain quite
isolated through the evening in association with the ongoing rain
band. Accordingly, watch issuance appears unlikely at this time, but
observational trends will continue to be closely monitored.

..Gleason/Grams.. 07/14/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   29429017 29899014 30429011 31179022 31569012 31478988
            30848966 29908970 29398998 29429017 

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