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SPC MD 1460

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Mesoscale Discussion 1460
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

Areas affected...Portions of southern/central MS and far
southeastern LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 140420Z - 140615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A brief tornado cannot be ruled out over the next couple
of hours across parts of southern and central Mississippi into far
southeastern Louisiana. This threat still appears quite isolated,
and watch issuance remains unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...A persistent rain band on the eastern periphery of
Tropical Storm Barry remains over parts of southern/central MS into
far southeastern LA at 0415Z. A couple transient and generally weak
low-level circulations embedded within this band have been noted on
radar over the past hour or so. Strong low-level shear estimated by
the KDGX VWP remains over this region, with 0-1 km SRH of 200-300
ms/s2 estimated along and just east of the ongoing shallow
convection. 04Z surface analysis shows a weak marine front across
southern MS and far southeastern LA, with upper 70s dewpoints and
generally southeasterly winds to the south of the boundary
transitioning to lower 70s dewpoints and weaker easterly winds to
the north in central MS. Brief tornado potential may be locally
maximized when individual elements within the rain band cross this
boundary over the next couple of hours. Regardless, this tornado
potential should be quite isolated and spatially confined, with weak
buoyancy likely limiting a greater severe threat. Watch issuance
remains unlikely at this time given recent observational trends and
expected short-term evolution of the ongoing rain band.

..Gleason/Grams.. 07/14/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   30368990 30708990 31148977 31758964 31938972 32128970
            32248951 32238919 31878906 31438917 30908936 30528955
            30318967 30368990 

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