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SPC MD 1462

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Mesoscale Discussion 1462
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0920 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

Areas affected...eastern Louisiana into southern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 141420Z - 141645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A small area of brief tornado potential exists across
parts of eastern Louisiana into southern Mississippi.

DISCUSSION...Various confluent bands of shallow convection currently
exist east of the low center, with occasional echo tops to 30K ft.
Given the warm temperatures aloft, especially with westward extent,
little if any lightning has been noted in these convective elements.

Surface analysis shows relatively higher theta-e across southeast LA
into far southern MS where dewpoints are in the upper 70s F. This
type of air mass will likely be needed to support any tornado threat
given the warm temperatures aloft. Meanwhile, 0-1 SRH is maximized
over northern LA into western MS, with modest values of 100-200
m2/s2 extending south to I-10.

Farther east into eastern MS, better overall instability exists
farther away from the warm core low and where temperatures are
rising into the 80s east of a north/south oriented band of
showers/storms. Here, low-level shear is less, but perhaps
sufficient for weak rotation.

Current thinking is that there may be gradual northward progress of
the higher theta-e air into MS today, and in between rain bands and
any outflows. The greater low-level shear should largely remain in
place, with the best threat of brief tornadoes along the western
fringe of the instability gradient. In addition, the deeper showers
may simply mix down stronger winds from above, causing localized
wind damage.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 07/14/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   29529160 29899140 30509129 31009142 31299137 31569097
            31748967 31668932 31408898 31068889 30888896 30708917
            30408968 29829054 29489088 29529160 

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