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MD 1471 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL SD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AND WESTERN NE
MD 1471 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1471
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0632 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

Areas affected...Portions of south-central SD into north-central and
western NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 142332Z - 150130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated storms will pose a risk for large hail and severe
wind gusts for the next couple of hours. Watch issuance is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...A couple storms have recently formed along/near a
surface trough extending northeast-southwest across south-central SD
into north-central and western NE. 21Z RAP forecast soundings
suggest the boundary is well mixed across this region, which should
support efficient momentum transfer within convective downdrafts.
Strong to severe winds could occur given this environment. Isolated
large hail may also be noted given some steepening of mid-level
lapse rates to around 7-7.5 C/km and 30-35 kt of effective bulk
shear, which should support occasional updraft organization. With
the lack of a more pronounced large-scale forcing mechanism,
strong/severe storm coverage is expected to remain rather isolated,
and watch issuance is not expected this evening.

..Gleason/Grams.. 07/14/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   42490243 43060112 43590040 44199961 44049900 43479920
            43019954 42150079 41720181 41760261 42050267 42490243 

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