Jump to content
  • Forum Image
Sign in to follow this  

Recommended Posts

MD 1477 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST MN INTO CENTRAL WI
MD 1477 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1477
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019

Areas affected...southeast MN into central WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 151857Z - 152030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong storms could produce hail and locally
strong wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are developing across
west-central WI this afternoon in an area of strong instability
downstream from an MCV currently over southeast MN. These storms may
pose a marginal risk for hail approaching 1-inch in diameter and
locally strong wind gusts. However, weak effective shear will limit
overall organization of any storm clusters that develop.
Additionally, an area of low to midlevel dry air has been noted on
water vapor imagery to the north of the MCV and south of the
southeastward-advancing cold front. This is further evident in
visible satellite imagery, where little cloud cover is present from
near AQP in southwest MN eastward to near RZN in western WI. This
may be suppressing convective potential across central/southern MN
and adjacent parts of WI in the short term, until stronger ascent
arrives with the approach of the cold front and shortwave impulse.
Hi-res guidance continues to struggle with ongoing convection,
providing little confidence in overall evolution of potential severe
threat across parts of southern MN into central WI through the
afternoon. As such, trends will be monitored for possible watch
issuance, but a watch does not appear necessary in the short-term.

..Leitman/Dial.. 07/15/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   45359223 45629147 45749032 45408976 45068959 44678968
            44219074 43739229 43619304 43889343 44419334 45039277
            45359223 

Read more

View the full article

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  



  • DaculaWeather Twitter Feeds

×
×
  • Create New...