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Mesoscale Discussion 1484
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0715 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019

Areas affected...Portions of southeastern MN into western/central WI

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 509...

Valid 160015Z - 160145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 509

SUMMARY...Primarily an isolated strong to damaging wind threat
continues across remaining valid portions of Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 509. Downstream watch issuance into more of western/central WI
and southeastern MN is not expected this evening.

DISCUSSION...Over the past couple of hours convection has
consolidated into a line along a pre-frontal surface trough
extending from northwestern WI into parts of southeastern MN. Given
the linear mode, isolated strong to damaging outflow winds should be
the main threat through the remainder of the evening. However, a
brief tornado cannot be ruled out in the short term along the
southern flank of the line, where a recent rotational velocity
couplet around 40 kt was observed in Scott County MN before
weakening. Instability rapidly decreases into central WI and far
southeastern MN, where convective overturning from earlier
thunderstorms has generally stabilized the low levels. Current
expectations are for the ongoing line of storms to weaken as it
progresses southeastward into WI and far southeastern MN through the
evening. Therefore, an additional Severe Thunderstorm Watch into
more of western/central WI and far southeastern MN is not
anticipated at this time.

..Gleason.. 07/16/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   44159474 44869453 45159419 45099287 45939181 46459113
            46559057 46469030 46309012 46238981 45878930 44318998
            43549129 43549417 44159474 

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