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MD 1482 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MI INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WI
MD 1482 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1482
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0610 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019

Areas affected...Portions of western Upper MI into far north-central
WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 152310Z - 160045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated strong/gusty wind threat may exist across
parts of western Upper MI into far north-central WI this evening.
Watch issuance appears unlikely.

DISCUSSION...A line of convection that has developed ahead of a
surface cold front in association with a low-amplitude shortwave
trough over MN and southern Ontario will continue eastward across
western Lake Superior. With generally 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE
(locally stronger) and 25-40 kt of mid-level westerly flow present
over this region, there is some concern that the line will be able
to maintain its intensity as it crosses Lake Superior and
subsequently moves over parts of western Upper MI and far
north-central WI over the next couple of hours. The best threat area
does appear to be spatially confined to a small part of western
Upper MI in the wake of earlier convection now over northeastern WI
and northward-moving outflow. Still, mainly an isolated strong/gusty
wind threat could exist through the evening where diurnal heating
has been able to steepen low-level lapse rates. Although watch
issuance appears unlikely at this time, observational trends will
continue to be monitored.

..Gleason/Grams.. 07/15/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...

LAT...LON   46518725 46088758 45888815 45888928 46318991 46649029
            46838993 47418847 47568786 47488755 47088743 46518725 

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