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SPC MD 1734

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MD 1734 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
MD 1734 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1734
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019

Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico and adjacent portions of the
Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 140725Z - 140900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated strong storm or two, posing some risk for
severe hail and wind, appears possible through about 3-4 AM MDT.

DISCUSSION...Synoptic forcing for ascent appears weak to negligible.
However, relatively moist southeasterly/easterly low-level upslope
flow, aided by lift associated with a southward advancing
convectively generated outflow boundary appear to be contributing to
recent thunderstorm development near the Raton Mesa vicinity.  Some
further intensification appears possible during the next hour or so,
supported by inflow of boundary layer air still characterized by
CAPE up to around 1500 J/kg.  In the presence of strong deep-layer
shear, due to pronounced veering of winds with height beneath 20-25+
kt northwesterly flow around 500 mb, one or two supercell structures
appears possible.  As activity tends to propagate
south-southeastward, it may pose a risk for at least marginally
severe hail and locally strong surface gusts, before waning after
09-10Z.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/14/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   37070416 36840281 35690275 35280360 35990420 36310446
            37070416 

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