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SPC MD 1756

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Mesoscale Discussion 1756
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019

Areas affected...eastern Kansas and western Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 587...

Valid 160734Z - 160900Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 587

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue across far eastern Kansas into
western Missouri. These thunderstorms will continue through the
night. Large hail and gusty winds should be the primary threat.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue on the eastern periphery of a
warm low-level airmass across central Kansas. This complex of
thunderstorms is exhibiting a modified "bow and arrow" mesoscale
convective system structure, with a leading bow echo -- now over
southwest Missouri -- and trailing line of thunderstorms behind the
initial bow echo -- fed by warm-air advection emanating from a
moist, warm low-level airmass across central Kansas.

Generally speaking, a threat for hail and gusty winds will continue
for a couple more hours with the leading bow across southern
Missouri. Behind this bow, thunderstorms will continue to be fed by
an unimpeded fetch of moist, unstable air (where most-unstable CAPE
values will be in excess of 2000-3000 J/kg). Although deep-layer
shear is less than to the northwest, values around 30-40 knots will
be more than sufficient to support updraft organization and a
continued threat of large hail and gusty winds through the morning. 

Unless additional development becomes apparent across portions of
southeast Kansas, western portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #587
may be cleared from the watch before expiration later this morning.
This will be monitored.

..Marsh.. 08/16/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   39579655 39559576 39669576 39639508 39799482 39799464
            39749462 39759425 39559417 39529373 39589374 39609332
            39219286 39019285 38969254 38689262 38669284 38419256
            38349218 37979202 37599202 37609223 37459224 37449267
            37069268 37099358 36929359 36919403 37039404 37059460
            36999462 37019555 37339550 37379591 37599597 37609646
            38089648 38099633 38739634 38819646 39049645 39059636
            39139636 39179650 39409672 39579655 

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