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SPC MD 1758

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MD 1758 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 587... FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI
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Mesoscale Discussion 1758
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0604 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019

Areas affected...southeast Kansas and western Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 587...

Valid 161104Z - 161200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 587
continues.

SUMMARY...Multiple areas of thunderstorms continue this morning all
continue to exhibit a slow weakening trend. As such a new watch is
currently not expected.

DISCUSSION...Three distinct thunderstorm clusters are evident across
the region this morning: 1) south-central Missouri -- the remnants
of the original bow; 2)west-central Missouri -- the remnants of the
initial warm-air advection storms; and 3)southeast Kansas -- newer
warm-air advection storms.

The remnants of the earlier bow echo continue to move east-southeast
across south-central Missouri. The airmass along and ahead of this
cluster should become increasingly hostile to thunderstorm
maintenance, let alone severe maintenance. Most-unstable CAPE
quickly drops off to near nothing to the east of the storms, and
deep-layer shear decreases as well. Thus, the severe threat along
and ahead of this cluster is low.

The remnants of the initial warm-air advection storms across
northeast Kansas have continued to slowly move east into western
Missouri. Despite being fed from a moderately unstable airmass to
the west, the persistent, slow-moving nature of the storms has
likely stabilized the airmass in the immediate vicinity of the
complex. This, combined with a weakening low-level jet, and
subsequent decrease in warm-air advection later this morning, the
overall severe threat should remain limited. Hail will be the
primary severe threat.

The newer warm-air advection thunderstorm development across
southeast Kansas should continue for a few more hours. Here, the
airmass is less worked over than areas farther north and east,
suggesting a potential for severe hail. At the same time deep-layer
shear is less, which would argue for less thunderstorm organization
and less organized severe potential. Based on observed trends, some
potential exists for a thunderstorm or two to briefly support hail
in excess of 1 inch. However, the severe threat should remain poorly
organized.

All-in-all, while severe hail or wind cannot be ruled out anywhere
within Severe Thunderstorm Watch #587, the overall severe threat is
much less than earlier. Current expectations are that ongoing watch
#587 will be allowed to expire at the top of the hour, with no plans
for an additional watch.

..Marsh.. 08/16/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   36769631 39679430 36759107 36769631 

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