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SPC MD 1766

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MD 1766 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 589... FOR EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI
MD 1766 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1766
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0440 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

Areas affected...eastern Kansas and Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 589...

Valid 170940Z - 171145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 589
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm intensity continues to decrease across most
of the area, and this trend should continue. The lone exception is a
storm moving southeast toward southwest Missouri. Gusty winds and
hail will be the main threat with this storm. A new watch is
currently not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Widespread thunderstorm activity and effects from what
appears to be a large heat burst across south-central Kansas appear
to have stabilized much of the airmass across Kansas. The effect of
this is an general decrease of thunderstorm intensity.

Farther east, across far eastern Kansas and western Missouri, a more
favorable thermodynamic environment for thunderstorms remains in
place, where most-unstable CAPE values around 2000 J/kg exist.
However, the kinematic environment is more hostile to thunderstorm
organization with deep-layer shear generally less than 25 knots. The
most intense thunderstorm across the central United States is moving
across west-cental Missouri, within the aforementioned environment.
Given the current thunderstorm organization and favorable
thermodynamic environment ahead of the storm, continued gusty winds
and hail will be possible with this storm in the short term.
However, with time, thunderstorm organization will lessen and
therefore the thunderstorm should weaken. In fact, recent radar
imagery suggests this may already be underway with indications of a
turn to the east occurring.

To the northeast, across northeast Missouri, a couple of
thunderstorms have briefly intensified within the last hour. The
thermodynamic environment here is weaker than farther southwest, but
the deep-layer shear is better. Current suggestion is that although
a brief severe hail or wind threat may develop with any
sustained/intense updraft, the overall threat should remain limited
and a new watch will not be needed.

..Marsh.. 08/17/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38209787 38949791 38979735 40359734 40359688 40529686
            40519644 40279647 40249506 40159506 40139462 40049460
            40029422 40129418 40119377 40269374 40239332 40069337
            40009228 39259233 38689264 38689307 38519307 38529354
            38239352 38199406 38049405 38069593 38199596 38159635
            38089637 38119718 38179718 38209787 

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