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SPC MD 1767

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Mesoscale Discussion 1767
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

Areas affected...central and northern Illinois and western Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 171300Z - 171500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to move out of Missouri and
into central Illinois this morning. Additional thunderstorms will be
possible across northern Illinois as well. Hail and gusty winds may
be possible with the strongest cores. The area will be monitored for
potential watch, but current indications are that the threat should
remain sufficiently isolated to not warrant one.

DISCUSSION...Long-lived cluster of thunderstorms continues to move
east from northern Missouri into central Iowa. Most-unstable CAPE
along and ahead of this cluster is around 1000-1500 J/kg; however,
deep-layer shear is generally less than 25 knots. Thus, although a
severe hail or strong thunderstorm wind gust will be possible with
the strongest cores, the threat should remain sufficiently
isolated/episodic that a watch is not currently anticipated for this

To the north, across northern Illinois, additional thunderstorms may
develop within a belt of stronger midlevel flow, likely in response
to ageostrophic forcing from the mesoscale convective system to the
southwest. The result will be thunderstorms developing in an
objectively analyzed environment of most-unstable CAPE around
1000-1500 J/kg and deep-layer shear of 40-50 knots. Although this
would normally suggest a threat for organized severe thunderstorms,
considerable uncertainty remains regarding convective coverage and
longevity. As such, area will continue to be monitored for potential
watch, but expectations are that the threat will remain too isolated
in nature to warrant watch issuance.

..Marsh/Edwards.. 08/17/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   39948994 41609062 42338945 41488669 39198715 38529025

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