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NorthGeorgiaWX

Hurricane Dorian (05L)

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Of course. You always need glitches

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1445Z THU AUG 29 2019


EXPECTED MODEL DELAYS/PROBLEM WITH MODEL PRODUCTION...

During the WCOSS production switch from Orlando to Reston, model
jobs started to experience problems submitting to LUNA in Reston.
NCO is currently investigating. Delays with the 13Z HRRR and RAP
are expected. More updates to follow.

UPDATE TO EXPECTED MODEL DELAYS/PROBLEM WITH MODEL PRODUCTION...

Jobs are now successfully submitting to WCOSS systems in Reston.
NCO's Model Production Team is carefully working on recovering
from the issue. Delays with the HRRR and RAP are expected (The
13Z runs will be delayed up to 50 minutes, and the 14Z runs could
be delayed up to 20 minutes).
 

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If it keeps slowing down then out to sea becomes a real possibility. Once that ridge begins to move out, wherever Dorian is it'll start to turn northward. Massive shit in the EPS last night. With the modeling it still seems a bit like the windshield wiper effect right now, going back and forth between solutions within 12 hour cycles. 

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Looking at all the models they have come into agreement basically. Now with the speed of Dorian, the question is will he ever make landfall on fla.  But every model has it curving north ne along or on the coasts of S Car.  Ga. N Car

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12z Euro initialized at 996 mb. At 11 am we were 986 mb. So this run that's just now coming out initialized 10 mb higher than the storm was at 11 am. Models playing catch up with intensity.

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Quite a few of the 12z models take this thing to the southern tip of Florida! Wonder where this thing is going to make its curve at?!

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Just now, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Uh... at 108 hours, the Euro is on roughly the same latitude as Miami.

Several of the midday models go south.. but yeah that is way south and way to close to staying over water constantly.

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3 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

This may head out to sea. 

Maybe barely just touch Florida and ride out into the sea would be better than crossing the state and stalling and then heading back out. 

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