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NorthGeorgiaWX

Hurricane Dorian (05L)

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Steve

With the huge slow down of Dorian does it change where it goes as it move N over Florida?  Or is the trough just going to sit there?  I mean we are talking Saturday now before it gets to Charleston right?  So nothing changes in 4  days or so to steer the system otherwise besides NE?

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1 minute ago, RickyD said:

Steve

With the huge slow down of Dorian does it change where it goes as it move N over Florida?  Or is the trough just going to sit there?  I mean we are talking Saturday now before it gets to Charleston right?  So nothing changes in 4  days or so to steer the system otherwise besides NE?

It could hang over Florida for a while. The timing and speed of the approach in relation to the Atlantic high and the trough/front originating from Canada all help to determine where and how fast Dorian will go. It is a complex interaction that is really too soon to know. With such a slow speed, it doesn't take much to nudge Dorian along, so exactly where that nudge is coming from helps to decide the route she takes. 

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3 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

It could hang over Florida for a while. The timing and speed of the approach in relation to the Atlantic high and the trough/front originating from Canada all help to determine where and how fast Dorian will go. It is a complex interaction that is really too soon to know. With such a slow speed, it doesn't take much to nudge Dorian along, so exactly where that nudge is coming from helps to decide the route she takes. 

I always heard the stronger hurricanes sometimes make their own determinations about direction for period of time

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Information is arriving at a furious pace this morning as meteorologist are taking note of the rapidly intensifying Dorian. 

As you read in the post above from Dr. Ryan Maue... "Nothing currently stopping storm from reaching Category 5". From Ryan, those are ominous words. Combine potential CAT5 winds, with a forward speed of 4-5 mph, and a perpendicular landfall to the coast, and you have an extremely dangerous situation that will be unfolding on the southern Florida coastline. Some areas will be hammered for more than 24 hours with hurricane force winds and storm surge, and the worst of the destruction will be just on the north side of the storm.

If you are in the affected areas, please heed the warnings and evacuation orders from your local officials. Dorian is becoming more serious and deadly by the minute. Bastardi calls it the "fist of fury". 

Stay tuned for the latest information right here. 

 

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8 minutes ago, RickyD said:

I always heard the stronger hurricanes sometimes make their own determinations about direction for period of time

They are an entity to themselves. Dorian has proven that she is determined to make a fool out of weather forecasters. 

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Great discussions from the experts. You don't get this from the "official" sources. 😉 Just sayin'...AND, one of the guys in the discussion is one of the NHC forecasters, so even better. 

 

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00z HWRF If it is correct (see above comment), it would make landfall with 122 knot winds and 936 mb pressure. CAT4. 

06z is running now, let's see what if any changes happen with this run.

hwrf-dorian05l-wnd10m_stream-7447200.thumb.png.2386756a2b3da5add63b232ba1f1ca9b.png

hwrf-dorian05l-mslp-7447200.thumb.png.636eb4762b3459dde6991e902ff14386.png

 

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Friday, August 30, 11 AM Discussion Update

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 30 2019

Both Air Force and NOAA aircraft have been sending data from Dorian
this morning. The flight-level winds from both planes have peaks
at 100 kt and the SFMR measured 94 kt. The minimum central pressure
has been oscillating between 972 and 976 mb. On this basis, the
initial intensity has been set to 95 kt.
The upper-low currently
over Cuba which has been inducing some shear over Dorian is moving
away from the hurricane, and the upper-level flow pattern is
evolving toward a more favorable environment. In fact, the eye is
becoming apparent on visible images as we speak and in radar data
from the NOAA P3 aircraft. Consequently, the NHC forecast calls for
additional intensification, and Dorian is expected to become an
extremely dangerous major hurricane soon with additional
strengthening likely as it heads for the northwestern Bahamas and
the Florida peninsula.

Fixes from both reconnaissance planes indicate that Dorian is moving
toward the northwest of 310 degrees at 9 kt. As the upper-low over
Cuba moves westward and a strong subtropical ridge builds over the
western Atlantic as indicated by global models, the hurricane should
be forced to turn west-northwestward and westward on a track toward
the northwestern Bahamas and the Florida peninsula. By the end of
the forecast period, the ridge is forecast to erode and the
steering currents will weaken, resulting in Dorian slowing down
considerably near and over the Florida peninsula.  This increases
the uncertainty in the track forecast during the 4- to -5 day
period, and also will lead to a prolonged duration of wind,
storm surge, and rainfall.
The official forecast has been very
consistent so far, and this one is very similar to the previous
NHC forecast. It follows the multi-model and corrected consensus,
and is in the middle of the guidance envelope.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force
winds are likely in portions of the northwestern Bahamas, where a
hurricane watch is in effect. Residents should execute their
hurricane plan and listen to advice given by local emergency
officials.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force
winds are likely along portions of the Florida east coast by early
next week, but it is too soon to determine where the highest storm
surge and winds will occur. Residents should have their hurricane
plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and
listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

3. A prolonged period of storm surge, high winds and rainfall is
likely in portions of Florida into next week, including the
possibility of hurricane-force winds over inland portions of the
Florida peninsula.

4. Heavy rains are expected over portions of the Bahamas, Florida,
and elsewhere in the southeastern United States this weekend into
the middle of next week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 24.5N  69.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  31/0000Z 25.3N  71.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  31/1200Z 25.9N  72.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 26.3N  74.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  01/1200Z 26.6N  76.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  02/1200Z 26.8N  78.6W  120 KT 140 MPH

 96H  03/1200Z 27.0N  80.4W  110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND

120H  04/1200Z 29.0N  81.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND

145103_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png.95ecde44e54f173de6f80c07925825a5.png

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