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Hurricane Dorian (05L)

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Soooo....does the shift mean we are more likely to see affects here locally?  Atlanta metro?  It had seemed previously with Florida landfall we were pretty much cleared.

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3 minutes ago, gatormom said:

Soooo....does the shift mean we are more likely to see affects here locally?  Atlanta metro?  It had seemed previously with Florida landfall we were pretty much cleared.

🙂 This is like following a winter storm, isn't it? 🙂 

We will most likely NOT see any real effects here except for some elevated breezy winds. That being said, it's not over 'till it's over. What all the back and forth and changes in the track, my best advice is to keep checking back. I hate to say that hurricanes have a mind of their own, but as you can see with Dorian, she does. 🙂 She has not followed forecast tracks, she has defied the intensity forecast, and she has every meteorologist dazed and confused. 🙂 Expect more confusion today. Dorian is suppose to slow down... let's see if she does. Right now she's headed due west, a due west turn wasn't expected this early. This morning the Euro takes Dorian further south than the previous runs... and so it goes. 

So I hate to beat around the bush, but it's pretty tough right now to tell anyone, and even those in Florida, exactly what is going to happen in two days, much less 3-5. 

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1 minute ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

🙂 This is like following a winter storm, isn't it? 🙂 

We will most likely NOT see any real effects here except for some elevated breezy winds. That being said, it's not over 'till it's over. What all the back and forth and changes in the track, my best advice is to keep checking back. I hate to say that hurricanes have a mind of their own, but as you can see with Dorian, she does. 🙂 She has not followed forecast tracks, she has defied the intensity forecast, and she has every meteorologist dazed and confused. 🙂 Expect more confusion today. Dorian is suppose to slow down... let's see if she does. Right now she's headed due west, a due west turn wasn't expected this early. This morning the Euro takes Dorian further south than the previous runs... and so it goes. 

So I hate to beat around the bush, but it's pretty tough right now to tell anyone, and even those in Florida, exactly what is going to happen in two days, much less 3-5. 

LOL....I had to hunt down the link for this site-haven't been here since the last winter storm!  GCPS has sent out all their precautionary digitial learning day emails to staff...seems a little overkill to me! 

 

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1 minute ago, gatormom said:

LOL....I had to hunt down the link for this site-haven't been here since the last winter storm!  GCPS has sent out all their precautionary digitial learning day emails to staff...seems a little overkill to me! 

 

I know. My wife teaches here in Gwinnett, so she was telling me all about that nonsense. LOL! People are crazy.

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Do you find it ironic that with every meteorologist focused on Dorian, the analysis of run after run of many different computer models, data from planes, satellites, buoys, and every other method of data collection, and we still don't know exactly where Dorian will go in two days?

Stop and think about that.  Sure, we "think" we know... but based on what has happened so far, I'm still not convinced. 

There are questions are to how far west she'll move and at what point the turn begins, and these are CRITICAL in knowing where Dorian will go. 

So I hate to be wishy washy, but Dorian gives everyone no choice. Everyone along the southeast coast needs to be prepared for the worst and hope for the best. 

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42 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Do you find it ironic that with every meteorologist focused on Dorian, the analysis of run after run of many different computer models, data from planes, satellites, buoys, and every other method of data collection, and we still don't know exactly where Dorian will go in two days?

Stop and think about that.  Sure, we "think" we know... but based on what has happened so far, I'm still not convinced. 

There are questions are to how far west she'll move and at what point the turn begins, and these are CRITICAL in knowing where Dorian will go. 

So I hate to be wishy washy, but Dorian gives everyone no choice. Everyone along the southeast coast needs to be prepared for the worst and hope for the best. 

I think that is the nature of -- Nature!  I get so annoyed with people who say "oh, they blew the forecast" or "meteorologists are the only professionals who get paid for doing their jobs wrong" etc., etc.  I think it is amazing how much they DO know and sometimes, the more bits of info there are, the more complicated it becomes to interpret.  I was thinking - after reading some grumpy comments from people (on other forums) who were ticked off that they got storm supplies - I wonder if it would be better to show the cone of uncertainty without the center?  Would that keep people from focusing their brains on the idea that this is exactly where the storm will hit?  Even with my very limited knowledge, I know that the storm center can go anywhere within that very large cone.  Why don't other people get that?  And that one teeny little wiggle way far out affects the entire track.  I understand that too and that's part of what fascinates me.  I can see people being frustrated with trying to evacuate - it's a big deal.  But being mad that they bought water and batteries and snacks?  I think people should have that stuff on hand anyway - especially if you live in areas likely to be affected by seasonal weather extremes.  But maybe it's not so much that people are really unreasonable -- maybe it's more that they are venting the stress of being so on edge with all the uncertainty...

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Some forecast are very straight forward, others not so much. This one not so much. Part of the problem is the area it's moving into that has little to no steering currents. How all of those little pieces work together to steer Dorian is very complex and very subtle. Think about a gyroscope that's spinning on a table. While it's spinning just barely touch it. What happens? Depending on how hard you touch and how long you touch, different things can happen. A hurricane is no different. There is an incredible amount of mass spinning at more than 100 mph, and the momentum of that mass plays a part in how much force it takes to shift the forward motion of the storm. 

Just the physics alone amaze me. 

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59 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Do you find it ironic that with every meteorologist focused on Dorian, the analysis of run after run of many different computer models, data from planes, satellites, buoys, and every other method of data collection, and we still don't know exactly where Dorian will go in two days?

Stop and think about that.  Sure, we "think" we know... but based on what has happened so far, I'm still not convinced. 

There are questions are to how far west she'll move and at what point the turn begins, and these are CRITICAL in knowing where Dorian will go. 

So I hate to be wishy washy, but Dorian gives everyone no choice. Everyone along the southeast coast needs to be prepared for the worst and hope for the best. 

Steve, in a perfect world you guys would be able to tell us where Dorian is going and what to expect in our back yard 😉 but since we don't live in a perfect world just know we appreciate everything you do here for us as well as how you try to prepare us as best as you can with the information you have. I love this site and the community you have built here so thank you for EVERYTHING you do for us!!! 

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Just now, Dyan said:

Steve, in a perfect world you guys would be able to tell us where Dorian is going and what to expect in our back yard 😉 but since we don't live in a perfect world just know we appreciate everything you do here for us as well as how you try to prepare us as best as you can with the information you have. I love this site and the community you have built here so thank you for EVERYTHING you do for us!!! 

Thank you very much! 🙂

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I was also thinking about what it was like "back in the old days" when people had to rely on sore joints and old wive's tales to make guesses about the the weather.  I'm grateful for all the information we get from you and other mets!

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2 minutes ago, Bagsmom said:

I was also thinking about what it was like "back in the old days" when people had to rely on sore joints and old wive's tales to make guesses about the the weather.  I'm grateful for all the information we get from you and other mets!

Lots of tools now that weren't available even 10 years ago.

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