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NorthGeorgiaWX

Hurricane Dorian (05L)

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Sorry.. eating. But winds to 150 mph now.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

...DORIAN'S FURY AIMING AT THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 73.4W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ENE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES

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Saturday, August 31 - 11 AM Update

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

Dorian's satellite presentation is outstanding with a distinct eye
of about 15 n mi in diameter. Both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane
Hunter planes have been penetrating the eye this morning and based
on a blend of the flight-level and SFMR winds, the initial intensity
has been adjusted upward to 130 kt in this advisory
. Dorian is
forecast to move over a deep layer of very warm waters, which is
like high octane-fuel for hurricanes. The combination of the warm
ocean and the prevailing low shear along Dorian's path should favor
some additional strengthening, but most likely the hurricane will
experience some fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement
cycles that are difficult to predict. Beyond 3 days, as the
hurricane begins to gain in latitude a gradual weakening is
anticipated.

Plane fixes indicate that Dorian is moving toward the west or 280
degrees at 7 kt, steered by weak flow to the south of the ridge
of high pressure over the western Atlantic. Most of the global
models shift the high eastward and deepens a trough over the
eastern United States beyond 2 days.  This steering flow would
typically favor a gradual turn of the hurricane to the northwest and
north, however there is large uncertainty in the exact location
and timing of this northward turn
. Although the latest guidance
has shifted a little bit eastward again this morning, there are
still ECMWF and GFS ensemble members that do not forecast the
northward turn so soon. On this basis, NHC prefers to shift the
track forecast just a little bit to the right of the previous one,
and the new official forecast lies along the western edge of the
guidance envelope.
This will allow for further adjustments in the
track during future forecast cycles.

Key Messages:

1. A prolonged period of life-threatening storm surge and
devastating hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of the
northwestern Bahamas, particularly on the Abaco Islands and Grand
Bahama Island.  A hurricane warning is in effect for these areas,
and residents should listen to advice given by local emergency
officials and have their hurricane preparations completed today.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds
are still possible along portions of the Florida east coast by the
early to middle part of next week, but since Dorian is forecast to
slow down and turn northward near or just offshore of the coast, it
is too soon to determine when or where the highest surge and winds
could occur. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place,
know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to
advice given by local emergency officials.

3. The risk of strong winds and dangerous storm surge is increasing
along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina
during the middle of next week. Residents in these areas should
continue to monitor the progress of Dorian.

4. Heavy rains, capable of life-threatening flash floods, are
expected over portions of the Bahamas and coastal sections of the
southeastern United States this weekend through much of next week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/1500Z 26.0N  73.4W  130 KT 150 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 26.2N  74.7W  135 KT 155 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z 26.6N  76.2W  130 KT 150 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 26.8N  77.4W  125 KT 145 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z 27.0N  78.0W  120 KT 140 MPH

 72H  03/1200Z 28.0N  79.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
 96H  04/1200Z 30.5N  80.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  05/1200Z 33.5N  78.0W   95 KT 110 MPH


145744_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png.75ca8d884d4bffed0bac93e5d967cb60.png

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SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1415Z SAT AUG 31 2019

The 12Z NCEP model production suite is currently running on time.

CRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUS...
CWD remains in effect until 1200Z Wed Sept 04 due to Hurricane
Dorian and potential impacts to eastern Florida and the Georgia
and South Carolina Coasts.

MDS STATUS...
GOES-E MDS Sector 1 and 2 will be centered over 26N/75W until
01/1200Z to allow for 30-second scans of Hurricane Dorian.

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Here's something we need to watch. The NHC track forecast is the benchmark we're shooting for. These are the current coordinate waypoints along the track, and we need to check this at the intervals shown to see what the actual coordinates are. That will tell us if Dorian is following the track, and if not, how far off it is. What is especially important is the longitude as that tells us how far west Dorian is going. 
So well check again at 2pm, 5pm and 8pm to see how we're doing.

11 AM Update  -- 26.00  -73.40
Now                   -- 26.00  -73.55
Tonight 8 pm    -- 26.20  -74.70
Sunday 8 am    -- 26.60  -76.20
Monday 8 am  -- 27.00  -78.00

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This is one reason this storm may be so damaging to the Georgia (and South Carolina) coastline. THis animation shows wave height and direction. Notice that when Dorian is riding up the Georgia coast, the wind and waves to the north of the storm will be aimed directly at the shoreline. Also notice that the wave height is up in the 50 foot range at times. If this track holds true, we ought to have some great videos from the Frying Pan.

ww3-glo-30m-se-ww3_sig_wave_height_dir-1567252800-1567252800-1567900800-40.gif

 

 

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24 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

This is one reason this storm may be so damaging to the Georgia (and South Carolina) coastline. THis animation shows wave height and direction. Notice that when Dorian is riding up the Georgia coast, the wind and waves to the north of the storm will be aimed directly at the shoreline. Also notice that the wave height is up in the 50 foot range at times. If this track holds true, we ought to have some great videos from the Frying Pan.

ww3-glo-30m-se-ww3_sig_wave_height_dir-1567252800-1567252800-1567900800-40.gif

 

 

I’ve been thinking about the Frying Pan. 😊

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16 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Did you watch it last year when Francis came through? 🙂

Yes I did! 

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Saturday, August 31 - 2:00 PM Intermediate Advisory

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 29A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

...SEVERE HURRICANE DORIAN CONTINUES HEADING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS WITH LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DEVASTATING WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 73.9W
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM E OF GREAT ABACO IN THE BAHAMAS
ABOUT 385 MI...625 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests in southern and central Florida should continue to monitor
the progress of Dorian.  Watches may be required for portions of the
east coast of Florida later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 73.9 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a slower westward
motion should continue into early next week.  On this track, the
core of Dorian should move over the Atlantic well north of the
southeastern and central Bahamas today, be near or over the
northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and move near the Florida east coast
late Monday through Tuesday.

Data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the
maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely, but
Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next
few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by a reconnaissance plane was
945 mb (27.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area across the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm
winds beginning tonight.

STORM SURGE:  A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds in Great Abaco and Grand Bahama. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:

Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Coastal sections of the southeast United States...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 12 inches.
Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF:  Swells will begin affect the east-facing shores of the
Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States
coast during the next few days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
174305_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png.38239f8c685737d6d62de1f0da9fa003.png

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Hwrf and Hmon both bad looks for Georgia Coast. I would think the global models are a little better at the large scale stuff important for tracking but I don't have enough experience following tropical systems to say for sure. 

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