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NorthGeorgiaWX

Hurricane Dorian (05L)

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6 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

How 'bout Thursday and tonight. ūüôā204603_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png.35423427b0a269b0113ef7627c73948d.png

234045_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png.6d7580862e9dad2db96db1bdb7e4c80d.png

Definitely with this one!  Lol.

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Just now, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Yes

I am worried about all the people in Florida, but am semi happy it is there and not here, still a horrible storm though... I hope nobody gets killed by this storm, but I know that is unlikely...

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Just now, LEmbs said:

When will it be official?  The 11pm?

Yes, that's the next big update. If I can make it. ūüôā Been up since 3 am. Plus I'd like to see the 00z model runs around 2 am so.... a guy's gotta sleep sometime. LOL!

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Ok, probably my last post for the night. The 11 pm update will probably show a CAT5 hurricane, we shall see. And if you've followed Cranky, then you know we'll have a much better idea in the morning as to the impacts from Dorian. I'll probably be up around 2-3 to check out the 00z model runs, so if anyone likes a model party... I'll be here!
 

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Good morning!!!!

Sunday, September, 1 - 5 AM Update

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DORIAN EXPECTED TO HIT THE ABACO
ISLANDS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND LATER TODAY...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS...AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 76.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch from north of Deerfield Beach to Sebastian
Inlet is changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of Golden Beach to
Deerfield Beach.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southern and central Florida should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian.  Additional watches or warnings
may be required for portions of the east coast of Florida today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 76.0 West.  Dorian is moving
toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a slower westward motion
should occur for the next day or two, followed by a gradual turn
toward the northwest.  On this track, the core of Dorian should be
near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas later today and
tonight, and should move closer to the Florida east coast late
Monday through Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are likely,
but Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the
next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area across the northwestern Bahamas later today, with tropical
storm winds beginning within the next few hours.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area on Monday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area by Monday night.

STORM SURGE:  A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island
.  Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through late this week:

Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Central Bahamas and the Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula
through Georgia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF:  Large swells will affect the east-facing shores of the
Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States
coast during the next few days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

090018_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png.99d4489de8be4e3710c1bc166d949346.png

 

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Today we should have a good idea when Dorian might make a turn. I have my own concern about Dorian making it to the coast of south FL, but I am not the expect, so I will leave that up to those whose pay grade is a little higher than mine. 

Dorian's first stop is Abaco Island. I didn't know much about it, so I had to go look it up. This was interesting to me. 

Quote

Unlike the sandy barrier islands of the eastern US, here the islands consist of limestone with some elevation and are protected on the ocean side by the third largest barrier reef in the world. For the most part the cays are green with mangroves and white-sand beaches. Most are uninhabited. The Abacos and their cays have been called Out Islands, Family Islands and Friendly Islands.

Hopefully the elevated limestone will help to keep those that stayed safe. I would not want to be in anyone's shoes that is staying there. From Abaco, it's less than 200 miles to Florida. At the current 8 mph rate is would take 25 hours for Dorian to reach land. The problem is that Dorian's forward motion should start to slow down today and pretty much stall... at least that is the NHC thought. 

So the big questions that need to be answered today are:

  • Where does Dorian stall?
  • When does Dorian start to turn?

Those are the million dollar questions that determine where Dorian goes next. At 5 am this morning, Dorian was showing no signs of slowing down OR changing direction and is still moving west at 8 mph. It's almost like she's on a mission and is not listening to anyone about what she's supposed to do. I know how women can get! ūüėõ¬†When they quit communicating with you... you are in BIG trouble. ūüôā

So at the moment, no good answers. Most of the models keep it offshore, but the HWRF is still insistent on a FL landfall.

hwrf_nest_uv10m_78.thumb.png.4b427512893dc899dd461251388504d1.png

So I don't know right now. Today is the big wait and see reveal, so for now, we watch and wait.

I'll be here all day long with updates. 

 

 

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