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Hurricane Dorian (05L)

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Sunday, September 1 - 11:00 AM Advisory

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number  33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...DORIAN BECOMES THE STRONGEST HURRICANE IN MODERN RECORDS FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
...CATASTROPHIC CONDITIONS OCCURING IN THE ABACOS ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 76.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...913 MB...26.96 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the east coast of Florida from
north of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line.

A Storm Surge Watch has also been issued from north of Deerfield
Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Lake Okeechobee.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island
* North of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the extremely distinct eye of Hurricane
Dorian was located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 76.8 West.
Dorian is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slower
westward motion should continue for the next day or two, followed by
a gradual turn toward the northwest.  On this track, the core of
extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to move over
Great Abaco and move near or over Grand Bahama Island later tonight
and Monday. The hurricane should move closer to the Florida east
coast late Monday through Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 180 mph (285 km/h)
with higher gusts.
 Dorian is a extremely dangerous category 5
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some
fluctuations in intensity are likely, but Dorian is expected to
remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days.

Dorian has grown larger in size. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-
force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). Ham radio
reports indicate that Hope Town in the Abacos just reported wind
gust to 100 mph.

The minimum central pressure measured by both NOAA and Air Force
reconnaissance plane was 913 mb (26.96 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Catastrophic hurricane conditions are occurring in the Abacos
Islands and will spread across Grand Bahama Island later today and
tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in
Florida by late Monday or early Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area on Monday and Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area by Monday night.

STORM SURGE:  A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island
.  Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Volusia/Brevard County Line to Jupiter Inlet FL...4 to 7 ft
North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...2 to 4 ft

The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of
Dorian comes to the Florida east coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through late this week:

Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Central Bahamas and the Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula
through Georgia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF:  Large swells are already affecting east-facing shores of the
Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and will spread northward along the
southeastern United States coast during the next few days.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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Just rapid deepening on a scale that I don't think I've ever seen. I mean this blows the criteria for rapid intensification out of the water. 185 mph is the Atlantic record for a landfalling hurricane and this will probably be right at it if not higher when it reaches Little Abaco. Depending on if these islands are enough to make an impact or not, it may make a run at low 900's or even sub-900 pressures. 

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If I were in south Florida right now... I would be driving 221 mph to get out. Man... I can't imagine the panic for people along the coast now. Some probably waited thinking it would go out to sea and now it's last minute pack and run. Never try to out think a monster hurricane. Always get out while you can, just ask the people that stayed at Mexico Beach Florida what they would do and you'll have the answer. 

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