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Hurricane Dorian (05L)

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Local meteorologists are saying little to none effects here unless you live on the immediate coast. They are saying the NHC insist the center will be far enough off Ga coast.  Maybe Charleston. SMH.  Cone is supposed to protect them but not when you tell school systems to not worry and they are in no danger.  That is what is being reported near Savannah 

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2 minutes ago, RickyD said:

Local meteorologists are saying little to none effects here unless you live on the immediate coast. They are saying the NHC insist the center will be far enough off Ga coast.  Maybe Charleston. SMH.  Cone is supposed to protect them but not when you tell school systems to not worry and they are in no danger.  That is what is being reported near Savannah 

That's what the media does. They follow all the official forecast and that's what they will post. It's safe and keeps them out of trouble. If it's wrong, they can point the finger the the NWS/NHC.

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No real change for 7 pm. Still moving due west at 5 mph. Just 150 miles from West Palm Beach. At the current rate, it would make landfall in 30 hours. That's going to seem like a really long time. 

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
700 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN CONTINUES TO BATTER THE ABACOS...
...APPROACHING EASTERN END OF GRAND BAHAMA...

This is a life-threatening situation.  Residents in the Abacos
should continue to stay in their shelter as the eastern eyewall of
Dorian remains over the area. Residents in eastern Grand Bahama will
begin to experience the western eyewall soon.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts over 220 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas
and will continue for several hours.


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 77.6W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...910 MB...26.88 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Latto

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Just now, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Just wondering if the frictional effects of Dorian brushing against the Grand Bahama island will act to steer it SW for a while? 

Wouldn’t bode well for Florida if so 

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This was such a good explanation for us laymen/women.  I don’t know how to embed it, so I’m just leaving the link here.  https://mobile.twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1168325893191847936

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Sunday night video update on Hurricane <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Dorian?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Dorian</a>:<a href="https://t.co/YZAQ0qPePD">https://t.co/YZAQ0qPePD</a></p>&mdash; Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) <a href="https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1168325893191847936?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 2, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

Edited by Sara
Trying to embed tweet
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Monday, September 2 5:00 AM Update

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

...CATEGORY 5 DORIAN CONTINUES TO HAVE DEVASTATING IMPACTS ON GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 78.2W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...916 MB...27.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Hurricane
Warning for New Providence and Eleuthera, and the Hurricane Watch
for Andros Island, in the northwestern Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Lantana to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to south of Lantana
* Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
* Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet
* Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was
located by NOAA Doppler radar near latitude 26.6 North, longitude
78.2 West.  Dorian is moving toward the west near 1 mph (2 km/h).  A
slow westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the
next day or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest and
north.  On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane
Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island through much of
today and tonight.  The hurricane will move dangerously close to the
Florida east coast tonight through Wednesday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Dorian is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Although gradual weakening is forecast,
Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next
couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 916 mb (27.05 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Catastrophic hurricane conditions continue on Grand Bahama
Island.  Do not venture out into the eye, as winds will suddenly
increase after the eye passes.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area
in Florida by late tonight or Tuesday.  Hurricane conditions are
possible in the Hurricane Watch area on Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm
warning area today and Tuesday, and are possible in the Tropical
Storm watch area by tonight.

STORM SURGE:  A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island.  Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Water levels
should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands during the day.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Lantana to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River...4 to 7 ft
North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana...2 to 4 ft

The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of
Dorian comes to the Florida east coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through late this week:

Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Central Bahamas and the Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula
through Georgia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF:  Large swells are affecting east-facing shores of the Bahamas
and the Florida east coast, and will spread northward along the
southeastern United States coast during the next few days.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES:  A brief tornado is possible this afternoon into tonight
along the immediate coast of east-central Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

040036_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png.14434ca44cc1cdfad78965c2bf3f99e7.png

 

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7 hours ago, Sara said:

This was such a good explanation for us laymen/women.  I don’t know how to embed it, so I’m just leaving the link here.  https://mobile.twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1168325893191847936

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Sunday night video update on Hurricane <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Dorian?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Dorian</a>:<a href="https://t.co/YZAQ0qPePD">https://t.co/YZAQ0qPePD</a></p>&mdash; Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) <a href="https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1168325893191847936?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 2, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

For anyone that wants to share from Twitter, this is how you do it.

For the tweet you want to share, click on the icon you see highlighted in yellow below


 Snap346062546.jpg.c6529cf469e817d7b7ab88e95ea028d2.jpg

 

When you do, you will see this. Click on "Copy link to Tweet". Then just paste the link in a comment here. 🙂 

Snap346062547.jpg.7788bb38813de7bb6ad499e40aaaa7bf.jpg

 

If anyone uses Twitter a lot, I highly recommend TweetDeck, and that is what I use. There are another 6 columns to the right that you don't see. 🙂

Snap346062548.thumb.jpg.05b564385317e6480f2549b963c2a84b.jpg

 

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Monday, September 2 - 6:00 AM Update

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
600 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

...EYE OF DORIAN WOBBLING OVER GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...

This is a life-threatening situation.  Residents on Grand Bahama
Island should not leave their shelter when the eye passes over, as
winds will rapidly increase on the other side of the eye.  Residents
in the Abacos should continue to stay in their shelter until
conditions subside later today.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts to 200 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will continue over Grand Bahama Island during most of
the day, causing extreme destruction on the island.


SUMMARY OF 600 AM EDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 78.2W
ABOUT 35 MI...50 KM ENE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...916 MB...27.05 INCHES

 

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In case you are interested, I have a page that will take you to any Area Forecast Discussion around the country, and obviously the ones to be reading now are from the NWS forecast offices along the coast.

Snap346062551.thumb.jpg.c7d92e5424eeb723be6d6f2265f92829.jpg

 

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