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Hurricane Dorian (05L)


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11 minutes ago, Mudrun said:

This storm is obviously an SEC football fan and wants to visit as many games as possible - when you say 'four days of heavy rainfall' is there a ballpark of inches?

(I recognize that this is maddening question but at least I didn't ask what time it will arrive in my backyard)

A friend of mine told me that "Atlanta never gets hit by hurricanes" when I moved down here.  

Thanks in advance for keeping us all up to date on this!  

Any of those details are still days away. Dorian has to make it past Puerto Rico before we can really start thinking about that.

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Ok, probably my last post for the night. The 11 pm update will probably show a CAT5 hurricane, we shall see. And if you've followed Cranky, then you know we'll have a much better idea in the morning a

My disclaimer... As always, please refer to the latest official forecast from the National Hurricane Center as well as your local NWS forecast offices. 🙂 I'm here to pass along information from a

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27 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Boy the HWRF has serious problems with over amping storms sometimes. I've seen it be way over more than not. It has an absolute buzz saw of a major hurricane off the Florida coast at the end of its run at 18z looks unrealistic, but at the very least highlights the potential of rapid intensification. 

With the ridicule of many about weather forecasters does it help or hurt the NHC that they have tropical storm predicted and some models are saying a cat 4?  The last 5 years or so it seems the nhc has dismissed evidence, calling it models and not predictable, but use those same models for other forecasting. Many Have lost confidence because the nhc is dismissing proof and self casting, until proven wrong, which is too late. They have to make allowances in their forecasts and at least make mention of the different scenarios 

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16 minutes ago, RickyD said:

With the ridicule of many about weather forecasters does it help or hurt the NHC that they have tropical storm predicted and some models are saying a cat 4?  The last 5 years or so it seems the nhc has dismissed evidence, calling it models and not predictable, but use those same models for other forecasting. Many Have lost confidence because the nhc is dismissing proof and self casting, until proven wrong, which is too late. They have to make allowances in their forecasts and at least make mention of the different scenarios 

The NHC, through experience, likely has a really good feel for situations that certain models handle well and situations in which models should be mostly discounted. It can't make the job easy but models are no more than a tool, and like any skilled professional they know when best to utilize certain tools. 

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6 hours ago, RickyD said:

With the ridicule of many about weather forecasters does it help or hurt the NHC that they have tropical storm predicted and some models are saying a cat 4?  The last 5 years or so it seems the nhc has dismissed evidence, calling it models and not predictable, but use those same models for other forecasting. Many Have lost confidence because the nhc is dismissing proof and self casting, until proven wrong, which is too late. They have to make allowances in their forecasts and at least make mention of the different scenarios 

No, the NHC knows what they are doing. They don't talk much about specific model details in their discussions, simply because they don't feel like it's pertinent to the message they are trying to convey. Your best bet for model discussion is the Model Diagnostic Discussion that I post every morning. 

Just because some models show higher intensities, doesn't mean that has to be mentioned. Some models/model runs are outliers and the data should be discarded as unrealistic. 


Their track and intensity accuracy of the NHC continue to improve.

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Wednesday, August 28, 4 am

Overnight it appears the Dorian has decided to ramp it up a little bit. Winds are now 60 mph.

 

The National Hurricane Center now brings Dorian to close to Daytona Beach as a Hurricane. 

053219_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind-28.png.116596b670f999e2de2401bb835b1c86.png

 

As you can see in the image, Dorian will pass right over Puerto Rico around 8 pm tonight. After that, there isn't much in the way that would impede the intensification as Dorian move NW toward Florida.

The intensity models have increased the odds of a CAT 1 and many point toward a CAT 2 at landfall.

aal05_2019082806_intensity_early-28-06.thumb.png.c60bddda25ec12162c9e62fe3544af39.png

 

Not sure if something scared the GFS, but the 00Z run takes Dorian out to sea. ???

527492448_gfs_dorian(1).thumb.png.cc1d233a0ea1603dbe5629ddef7a090d.png

 

But the Euro has nothing like that, nor do the other hurricane models.

Snap346062394.jpg.5411cf471ec5fc70fecfd06232270897.jpg

 

aal05_2019082806_track_early-28-06.thumb.png.66a9191561e1029e3b98f96d83365aa4.png

aal05_2019082800_eps_track_by_model_late-28-00.thumb.png.0553e3ab5321eba4be4942b2084f0a05.png

 

The Euro shows Dorian hangin out for a day off of Tampa

Sun 8 pm
euro-28-1.thumb.png.a5dd7d84dbd5d823ac7c33e289d6288a.png

 

Mon 8 pm
1314733414_ecmwf_2019-08-28-00Z_144_37.722_265.6_24.833_282.533_Vorticity_850-28mon8pm.thumb.png.166397ddc8343f252485c76e8c1c6f34.png

 

Tue 8 pm
2039509955_ecmwf_2019-08-28-00Z_168_37.722_265.6_24.833_282.533_Vorticity_850-28-Tue8pm.thumb.png.4435d873190ce05db32a9f67262701e4.png

 

Wed 8 pm
609975719_ecmwf_2019-08-28-00Z_192_37.722_265.6_24.833_282.533_Vorticity_850-28-wed8pm.thumb.png.2cdb47d14ba7b9dcfe96c12ccc4d2042.png

 

So the truth is... no one knows where Dorian will eventually go right now, and why everyone along the southeastern seaboard needs to be paying attention. It is unsettling to have this kind of spread in the numerical models at this point, we're 3-4 days from tropical storm force winds at the coast (8pm Saturday). It's going to be VERY interesting. 

I'll be back with the 5 am NHC update... see you then!

 

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August 28, 5 AM Update

Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 AM AST Wed Aug 28 2019

Satellite images and Doppler radar data from Puerto Rico indicate
that Dorian is becoming better organized with banding features now
more established on the north side of the circulation
. The
flight-level and SFMR winds from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
were a little higher in the most recent passes through the storm,
and a blend of that data supports an initial intensity of about 50
kt.  The Hurricane Hunters also reported that Dorian has developed a
partial eyewall and that the minimum pressure has dropped to 1003
mb.  A combination of the reconnaissance data and recent ASCAT
passes were used to modify the initial wind radii, and it confirms
that Dorian remains a compact and asymmetric tropical storm.

Dorian is moving northwestward at 11 kt toward a weakness in the
ridge caused by a cut off mid- to upper-level low to the north of
Hispaniola.  This motion should continue for the next few days,
taking Dorian across the Virgin Islands or the eastern portion of
Puerto Rico later today and to the east of the Bahamas on Thursday
and Friday.  By late in the week, the steering pattern is expected
to change as the models show a ridge building over the western
Atlantic.  The flow between the ridge and the aforementioned mid- to
upper-level low should cause Dorian to turn west-northwestward and
approach the southeast U.S. coast this weekend.  The new NHC
track forecast is adjusted a little to the right at most forecast
times trending toward the latest consensus aids.  However, there has
been considerable run-to-run variability among the models so
confidence in the long term track remains low. In addition, users
are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast points as the
average 5-day track error is around 200 miles.

Some additional slow strengthening seems likely today before Dorian
reaches Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.  The land interaction
could end the strengthening trend or even cause some temporary
weakening, however, environmental conditions favor intensification
after the storm pulls northward into the southwestern Atlantic.
Nearly all of the intensity models show Dorian becoming a hurricane
in about 2 days, with additional strengthening beyond that time.
The NHC intensity forecast is increased from the previous one,
especially at the longer forecast times, to be in better agreement
with the latest models.  This forecast, however, is still on the
lower end of the guidance envelope, so additional upward adjustments
could be needed if the guidance trends persists
.  It is also worth
noting that the global models show Dorian increasing in size by the
time it nears the southeast U.S.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, and are possible in
portions of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday.
Hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands today.

2. Heavy rainfall over portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands could produce flash flooding during the next
couple of days.  Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of
the Bahamas and Florida later this week and into early next week.

3. The threat of tropical storm or hurricane conditions, along with
storm surge, in the northwestern Bahamas and along portions of the
Florida east coast have increased. Residents in these areas should
monitor the progress of Dorian and ensure that they have their
hurricane plan in place.

4. Uncertainty in the intensity forecast late this week remains
higher than usual due to a large spread in the model guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0900Z 16.8N  63.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 17.9N  65.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z 19.5N  66.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  29/1800Z 21.4N  68.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  30/0600Z 23.3N  69.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  31/0600Z 26.1N  73.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  01/0600Z 27.7N  77.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  02/0600Z 29.0N  80.0W   85 KT 100 MPH

084950_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png.4005b3a93b369ed1276e5e8e2ae2de63.png

 

 

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3 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Not really odd. The GFS isn't as bad as you might think.

We'll see if this trend holds or if it goes back the other way. 

I mean I guess you are right. It has done decent thus far with this system. But even seeing the EURO beginning to make a bend as well and it’s ensembles having the option now is a little relief for Florida, maybe. 

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